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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Do you search twitter looking for random tweets that support your biases?

 

The models are loaded with precip just offshore. It wouldn't take that much to flip things around.

I don't care what the models are showing over the Gulf Stream..Anyone that knows anything about the wx..can clearly see the nasty dry/drought pattern is going to continue well into October

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Murdochville, Quebec, NE of Caribou, Maine on the Gaspe Peninsula this morning...

 

10678473_10152739321934184_7410185080599

 

 

She's a beaut, Clark!

 

One heck of a temperature gradient this afternoon... looking at the 1pm temps, ranging from upper 40s in northern VT/NH to mid-70s in SE MA. 

 

attachicon.gifmesomap2.jpg

 

attachicon.gifmesomap.jpg

 

Nice spread.  Warm at the Pit--

 

65.6/53.

 

BTW--where's the link to the NNE temps?  I can only find the SNE ones.

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BTW--where's the link to the NNE temps?  I can only find the SNE ones.

 

I think this is what you are looking for:

 

http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap2.htm

 

You can also use this and move the map around and see more detailed info:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=42.38287,-74.409912,45.544808,-70.125244&density=1

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I think this is what you are looking for:

 

http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap2.htm

 

You can also use this and move the map around and see more detailed info:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=42.38287,-74.409912,45.544808,-70.125244&density=1

 

Thanks--the mesomap2 was the one I couldn't find.

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I haven't been doing much model watching in the past week or so but what a dry pattern coming. I see no torch either. Days near normal and some cold nights. Classic fall, not too much humidity except for that potential offshore coastal storm that brings in some moisture. Looks like sne is caught in between the front and the storm system and doesn't see much QPF at all. Regardless, a nice comfortable fall pattern developing if you ignore lack of rain. Does N ORH, RT 2, Berks, NE MA potentially frost early this year? Hints of that on the models.

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Yeah, unfortunately its still a pretty significant drive...but yes, closer in a more broad sense.  Treeline is about 1,000ft lower up there...gotta imagine the nor'easters are absolutely insane.  Read an article about skiing up there and the author got stuck in like a legit 5-foot storm with hurricane force winds.  That would be worth chasing to stay in some motel or lodge up there at like 2,000ft for a 3-day nor'easter.

 

I've been up there in the summer, beautiful place! But TABER was up there skiing in the winter awhile back, has some good stories lol.

 

 

The time of year where SNE>NNE

 

For sure.

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I haven't been doing much model watching in the past week or so but what a dry pattern coming. I see no torch either. Days near normal and some cold nights. Classic fall, not too much humidity except for that potential offshore coastal storm that brings in some moisture. Looks like sne is caught in between the front and the storm system and doesn't see much QPF at all. Regardless, a nice comfortable fall pattern developing if you ignore lack of rain. Does N ORH, RT 2, Berks, NE MA potentially frost early this year? Hints of that on the models.

 

 

It wouldn't be that early if it happens tomorrow night...in fact there's probably already been some light frost in the most shltered areas earlier this week.

 

First freeze (32F) in that region tends to be around mid-Sept. First hard freeze (28F) is more like early Oct.

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I haven't been doing much model watching in the past week or so but what a dry pattern coming. I see no torch either. Days near normal and some cold nights. Classic fall, not too much humidity except for that potential offshore coastal storm that brings in some moisture. Looks like sne is caught in between the front and the storm system and doesn't see much QPF at all. Regardless, a nice comfortable fall pattern developing if you ignore lack of rain. Does N ORH, RT 2, Berks, NE MA potentially frost early this year? Hints of that on the models.

 

Doesn't always occur, but an "equinoctal pause" with calm dry wx seems common, unless it's just my recollection.  Only 16 years records (and looks like #17 will follow), but except for when Floyd went thru in 1999, I've not recorded a single 1"+ precip event during the period 9/12-26.  Only 3 of my 15 Sept thunderstorms came then (one on 9/26), with 8 for Sept 1-11 and 4 more Sept 27-30

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I've been up there in the summer, beautiful place! But TABER was up there skiing in the winter awhile back, has some good stories lol.

I'll have to talk to him about that haha. Hopefully we get some early season snow to go for a pre-season ski with LAHIFF and TABER. Had fun last November after that upslope event. It's awesome that your office is filled with so many outdoors loving mets. I know you're out there hiking all the time it seems. Really improves the forecasts for the outskirt areas and mountains. When I first moved to BTV 10 years ago there certainly wasn't anywhere near the focus on higher terrain, lakes, etc that there is now.

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I agree it really wouldn't take much to get some meaningful precipitation in here.  At this stage I wouldn't rule out a miss Sunday into Monday...all we need is the timing of the front/trough to slow down just a little bit...or the coastal to speed up and that opens up the door for some rains at least into southeastern SNE.  It's easy to blow off such a scenario given how things have been but I'd give it another 24-36 hours before completely dismissing it off.

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One August rainfall is the only difference. If you went back 90 days .. It would look different with SE mass and ENE getting crushed on July 4th and central areas not

lol at this my-drought-is-bigger-than-yours game that you guys are playing lately.

And if you went back 120 or 150 days it would look even more different!

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