Rjay Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Well so much for that.. Cell changed direction now heading north east.. New storms formed to my south over areas hit hard earlier It did turn ene earlier but there was also storms building further south on this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Some incredible lightning strikes here in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Probably a good light show in Queens right now headed into Nassau momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Very good lightning show here in NW Queens. Loud thunder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Line strengthening a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 0z NAM is interesting for eastern sections w/coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Recorded 1.05" total on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Heavy rain..thunder/lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Feels great tonight... 59f and falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Goodbye summer! It was nice knowing you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Feels great tonight... 59f and falling Feels great after that line came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Goodbye summer! It was nice knowing you! Yes thank goodness. While we will still see some warmer and more humid days like late this week the true summer heat and humidity is done until next May-July. Just looking at the upcoming forecast shows a stunning change when you go from a +10 or greater day to a minus 5 or so. Next weekend looks really cool especially during the nights/mornings with a shot at 40s for lows. True fall weather will be here before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 close to 1.75 inches of rain-very localized storms for SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Good to see the -EPO/+PNA holding steady. Our EL Nino is slowly starting to round into shape. The only other piece of the puzzle will be if the Atlantic cooperates this winter… -NAO/-AO. If so, we'll be locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Low 90`s around on Sat and then we may see some convection . Gotta love the European and its consistency . Another 4 day out verified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Good to see the -EPO/+PNA holding steady. Our EL Nino is slowly starting to round into shape. The only other piece of the puzzle will be if the Atlantic cooperates this winter… -NAO/-AO. If so, we'll be locked and loaded. This winter is looking more and more tantalizing as we get closer by the day. I agree we get the -AO/NAO to go along with the -EPO/+PNA and weak el nino it wont be if we get snow but how much come december through march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Gotta love the European and its consistency . Another 4 day out verified solution. the ECMWF may not be perfect but more often than not it leads the pack in forecadt verification 4+ days out and sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Looking ahead at the latest guidance we should see the brunt of any cool remain to our west this week (through the 12th). It looks close to normal with clouds and some rain mon - wed (9/8 - 9/10). Ridge builds back by Thursday and Friday (9/11 - 9/12) with increasing humidity and pending on sun, we should see temps push into the low or mid 80s. Some of the warmer spots may touch higher if its mainly sunny. Cold front and much cooler airmass arrives next weekend (9/13) and it looks to remain below normal into the week of the 9/15th. Beyond there, the Ecm rebuilds heights and warmth towards the 16th with a deep trough and cool airmass into the plains/GL. We'll see where today's guidance goes for the period 9/15 and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Rainfall 9/5-7 NYC: 0.11 EWR: 0.39 LGA: 0.33 JFK: 0/04 BLM: 0.35 TTN: 0.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 If only the Nam was a good model lol http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_12z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Just a stunning day in the works Low humidity, bright sunshine and temps around 80. Enjoy ! 11AM Roundup: TEB: 75 NYC: 73 EWR: 74 LGA: 73 JFK: 76 ISP: 75 New Brunswick: BLM: 73 TTN: 72 ACY: 72 PHL: 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Amazing day for Football here at MetLife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 This winter is looking more and more tantalizing as we get closer by the day. I agree we get the -AO/NAO to go along with the -EPO/+PNA and weak el nino it wont be if we get snow but how much come december through march when is the last time we had all the indicies favorable here for the majority of the winter ? and what happened ? anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 when is the last time we had all the indicies favorable here for the majority of the winter ? and what happened ? anyone ?Wasn't that 09-10? Big winter from VA to NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Missed all day here. Maybe .01 if I was lucky Really? We had 0.46" at Rutgers Gardens in North Brunswick yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 If only the Nam was a good model lol http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_12z/wrfloop.html The euro agrees somewhat, haven't looked at the QPF maps tho. It's west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 So much for the extreme cool shot as this week will run above normal when all is said and done...yes its cooler after that but really not far from normal levels which are dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 So much for the extreme cool shot as this week will run above normal when all is said and done...yes its cooler after that but really not far from normal levels which are dropping So much for a return to 90s mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 The euro agrees somewhat, haven't looked at the QPF maps tho. It's west of the GFS. People need to stop making serious reference of bad models or models showing their notorious biases. (NAM, DGEX, GGEM, JMA). For a hobbyist it may be excusable but for a meteorologist it isn't (ref. Bastardi). LOWS MOVING UP/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE -- THEIR USUAL BIAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN QUICK FLOW, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS AMPLITUDE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET IS BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND ARE PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 People need to stop making serious reference of bad models or models showing their notorious biases. (NAM, DGEX, GGEM, JMA). For a hobbyist it may be excusable but for a meteorologist it isn't (ref. Bastardi). LOWS MOVING UP/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE -- THEIR USUAL BIAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN QUICK FLOW, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS AMPLITUDE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET IS BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND ARE PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ROTH Whatever man, it isn't a non-event for everyone. Here is Mount Holly's disco MONDAY-TUESDAY...ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT EXCEPT THE BENIGN GGEM...A PERIOD OF NASTY EARLY SEPTEMBER WX SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST COASTAL DE IF NOT MOST OF THE NJ SHORE. TOO MUCH EASTERLY LOW LVL GRADIENT INFLOW IS ENSEMBLED (3SD ABOVE NORMAL 850 INFLOW BY LATE MONDAY) ..COURTESY OF A NICE CHILLY STRONG HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA. THE ARRIVAL OF THAT CHILLY AIR OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS MODIFIED BY THE WARMER ATLC WATERS BUT STILL THERE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL TRANSFER OF WIND UP TO 925 MB DUE TO STEEPER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE PULSES OF INSTABILITY LEAKING NORTHWARD ALOFT AND PWAT OF OVER 1.5 INCHES MODELED BY THE 03Z/7 SREF FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR SEWD...SUGGESTS WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL RAINFALL. HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS PER THE SWI OF THE ECMWF. SEVERAL 00Z/7 MODELS ARE TRYING TO PAINT VERY LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH (3-10 INCHES). THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEEDS A LITTLE RESPECT AND MONITORING FOR ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OUR COASTAL AREA. THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE SHOWER BANDS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNKNOWN AND FOR NOW... WE`VE ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST DETAILS I95 SEWD BUT BELOW AVG ON WHEN AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL RAIN IN NE PA AND NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.