Weathergun Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 12z Euro out to 42hr really drenches Southern New Jersey with not much rain getting further north than Monmouth CO. Looks more wet for SE NJ out to 45hr. Fairly sharp cut-off to the NW for anything significant. Heavy rain diminishes for SE NJ after 45hr. The low opens up and turns almost due east, off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Reminiscent of our March 'snowstorms' Lol, I had the same thing in my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Cloud deck has finally won out here, thick overcast currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 About 75 miles further north than the 00z run. Dry air is still winning out up here, especially north of Philly. I've been keeping a close eye on the HRRR which has been consistently showing the rain hitting a brick wall around CNJ. Reminiscent of our March 'snowstorms' Looks more wet for SE NJ out to 45hr. Fairly sharp cut-off to the NW for anything significant. Heavy rain diminishes for SE NJ after 45hr. The low opens up and turns almost due east, off the Delmarva. It looks like that it will come down to the strength of the high to the north. These easterly flow days have really been dominating especially since the beginning of August. The high pressure has been very strong to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Low pressure is currently organizing over coastal SC. I still give this an outside chance of wrapping up more than currently forecasted. Several 15z SREF members have substantial hits for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 A nice fall feel finally as temps hover around 70F with a nice breeze and an overcast sky. Summers back has been broken just like when winters back broke after that huge storm missed us to the east last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Courtesy of the increasing clouds, this evening witnessed a picturesque sky following sunset. Some cloud shots from this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The cool shot will be highly moderated and only last from about the 14th-18th before warmer than normal air begins to rebuild once again. WAR should retrograde back westward w/ the mean trough shifting into the U-MW for late September. Overall, the next few weeks should not be predominately cool in the East. I anticipate most days to be near average or warmer than normal, with the late September regime probably continuing into October (at least early). Of course, some may disagree with the aforementioned assertions, but I believe the analogs and near term drivers to be highly supportive of a normal-warmer than normal regime for the better part of the next 3-4 weeks. I hope this warm September does not ruin our prospects for a great winter. I remember last September being much cooler than what this September is projected to be like. Last September, we never got out of the 60s for highs for several days. If we do not get below 70*F at all this September for a high, I think we are doomed for the winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I hope this warm September does not ruin our prospects for a great winter. I remember last September being much cooler than what this September is projected to be like. Last September, we never got out of the 60s for highs for several days. If we do not get below 70*F at all this September for a high, I think we are doomed for the winter IMO. The correlation between September temperatures and the ensuing winter is essentially nil, so no reason to worry about this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Great shots Don. Looks to be some Kelvin-Helmholtz instability showing itself in that third image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Mostly sunny skies this morning. Very odd. But it looks like clouds will be back in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Beautiful morning weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The models continue the August pattern for the next week or two of plenty of onshore flow. No real extremes of heat or cold on average as the onshore flow moderates both the high and low temperature potential. Looking like very typical early fall temperatures going forward as opposed the the very warm first week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The GFS and Euro backed off on heavy rain for SE NJ. High pressure is keeping the coastal low and moisture further south today. The shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is going to kick this east late tonight and tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The offshore storm created some choppy surf on the Long Island Sound this morning. Two photos from just after sunrise: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Great shots Don. Looks to be some Kelvin-Helmholtz instability showing itself in that third image. Thanks. Kelvin-Helmholtz wave clouds appeared to be developing, but unfortunately darkness set in too quickly to watch the evolution for a longer period of time. I'm not sure if the classic wave clouds ever formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Crisp, clear blue skies this morning have given way to slate grey again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Crisp, clear blue skies this morning have given way to slate grey again. This storm is just annoying me now, if it's not going to rain then whatevz. The trainwreck of awful boring weather continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 This storm is just annoying me now, if it's not going to rain then whatevz. The trainwreck of awful boring weather continues. I love going to the beach on days like today...crisp/cloudy/stiff breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I love going to the beach on days like today...crisp/cloudy/stiff breeze needs to be at least 80 for beach wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Maybe a sneaky 90F on Thursday it looks borderline hot. Afterwards temps are looking near normal and the pattern will be dull as usual. A nice hurricane would've been nice to track right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 00Z Euro has mid 80s for Thursday (86F from about EWR SW) in advance of the next FROPA. Should feel very summery w/ dews well through the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Maybe a sneaky 90F on Thursday it looks borderline hot. Afterwards temps are looking near normal and the pattern will be dull as usual. A nice hurricane would've been nice to track right now. Yeah 850's are progged around +16c/+17c, so I could see the warmer locations like EWR and New Brunswick making a run at 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Maybe a sneaky 90F on Thursday it looks borderline hot. Afterwards temps are looking near normal and the pattern will be dull as usual. A nice hurricane would've been nice to track right now. Actually temps this weekend will be mainly in the 60's ... Well below, may not hit 70, especially Sunday and Monday with lows in the 40's inland and low 50's along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 70-75 depending on sun for jersey locales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Walking in to my office building at 8:00 this morning I remember thinking to myself, "Wow what a bust, it's going to be a beautiful day". Now it looks like it's going to rain even though I know it's not going to. We really need the rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 70-75 depending on sun for jersey locales you should know his game by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Things could get interesting if that system in the Bahamas develops. With that deep trough appraching the coast in about 5-6 days we could see a late recurving system or possible interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Things could get interesting if that system in the Bahamas develops. With that deep trough appraching the coast in about 5-6 days we could see a late recurving system or possible interaction. Reparation for this failed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Reparation for this failed event. You can blame the recent +NAO, lack of high lattitude blocking and the overall progressive nature of the pattern. When you're dealing with a positively tilted trough and strong flow it's very difficult to get a coastal up here. We run into this problem all the time during the winter months. Even though the energy was potent, it really had no room to slow down and amplify the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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