Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 As has been typical of late the models trend very dry leading up to an event...(the GFS has less than .25" through the end of its run). Of course I've learned whether they show a tenth or an inch really doesn't mean much with regards to convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Weenie run of the day, 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Weenie run of the day, 12z GFS. So just to be sure you're predicting a massive rainstorm for September 23?..want to make sure warlock knows ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 There is potential out there, first the system near the Bahamas getting wrapped up in the front followed by the system behind 91L, soon to be TS Edouard. 2014 Atlantic Tropical Thread has to be the worst one i've ever read, constant pessimism without reasoning and just bad posts overall and when stuff actually spins up no one ever says anything or they call it a fish storm. Btw, the Low Pressure south of Bermuda is a Hurricane interacting with the front, looks pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Tomorrow looks like the last time for a while that NYC gets over 80 degrees. .NEW YORK CITY...CENTRAL PARK, NYPTCLDY MOCLDY SUNNY MOCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY/79 66/84 64/75 60/73 57/73 55/70 56/73/10 00/40 60/10 20/40 40/10 10/10 20/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 So just to be sure you're predicting a massive rainstorm for September 23?..want to make sure warlock knows ;-) Yeah, basing a forecast on a 312hr GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 There is potential out there, first the system near the Bahamas getting wrapped up in the front followed by the system behind 91L, soon to be TS Edouard. 2014 Atlantic Tropical Thread has to be the worst one i've ever read, constant pessimism without reasoning and just bad posts overall and when stuff actually spins up no one ever says anything or they call it a fish storm. Btw, the Low Pressure south of Bermuda is a Hurricane interacting with the front, looks pretty interesting. Ground Scouring or whatever his name is is the worst. It's equivlent to a certain poster here that constantly whines about LI getting shafted by thunderstorms. Some of the main thread tropical posters have become so snobby that they aren't interested unless a major hurricane is striking in the deep tropics. They would find a cat 4 hitting Cuba more interesting than a Cat 3 hitting NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Ground Scouring or whatever his name is is the worst. It's equivlent to a certain poster here that constantly whines about LI getting shafted by thunderstorms. Some of the main thread tropical posters have become so snobby that they aren't interested unless a major hurricane is striking in the deep tropics. They would find a cat 4 hitting Cuba more interesting than a Cat 3 hitting NC. Add NHC to the list as well, Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 LOL at the GGEM. That model has never met a fantasy hurricane that it didn't love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 i wonder where the sea breeze is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 12z Euro says hope you like easterly component winds. I wonder what the record for the number of some easterly component wind days is here for August and September? Central Park is going to keep beating LGA with the sea breeze there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 12z Euro says hope you like easterly component winds. I wonder what the record for the number of some easterly component wind days is here for August and September? Central Park is going to keep beating LGA with the sea breeze there. I'm not sure what the record for August to September is but back in late October into November 1977 had over ten days of Northeast winds that ended with a deluge in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 i wonder where the sea breeze is Over my house like usual....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Over my house like usual....sigh Ground view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I'm not sure what the record for August to September is but back in late October into November 1977 had over ten days of Northeast winds that ended with a deluge in November... Here's the days at LGA since 8-1: 8-1...SSE 8-2...ENE 8-3...ENE 8-4...SSE 8-10.SE 8-11.SE 8-12.SE 8-13.SE 8-19.ENE 8-20.SE 8-22.SE 8-23.ENE 8-24.ENE 8-25.ENE 8-26.SSE 8-27.SSE 8-29.SE 8-30.SE 9-5..SSE 9-7..NE 9-8..E 9-9..NE 9-10.NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Here's the days at LGA since 8-1: 8-1...SSE 8-2...ENE 8-3...ENE 8-4...SSE 8-10.SE 8-11.SE 8-12.SE 8-13.SE 8-19.ENE 8-20.SE 8-22.SE 8-23.ENE 8-24.ENE 8-25.ENE 8-26.SSE 8-27.SSE 8-29.SE 8-30.SE 9-5..SSE 9-7..NE 9-8..E 9-9..NE 9-10.NE I mentioned some days back how I never remember seeing so many days with some type of easterly wind during the warm months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The HRRR looks pretty good for 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Latest first 50's in KNYC...some great winters followed... 1947...9/17 1966...9/15 1996...9/14 1905...9/13 1933...9/11 1980...9/11 1993...9/11 2005...9/11 2010...9/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Wow Upton just dropped POPS to 20%. Looks like another dry day on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Possible first noreaster of the season Tuesday on the Euro. Weak phasing occurs between a northern stream disturbance in the lakes region and a southern stream system in the southern Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD648 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL AND EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON RECORDAT EAST RAPID CITY SD...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 0.9 INCHES HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY ATEAST RAPID CITY SD. THIS IS THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR ASEASON AT EAST RAPID CITY SD...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OFSEPTEMBER 13 1970. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THEREIS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Latest first 50's in KNYC...some great winters followed... 1947...9/17 1966...9/15 1996...9/14 1905...9/13 1933...9/11 1980...9/11 1993...9/11 2005...9/11 2010...9/11 KNYC is making a run of tying 1947. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Good luck with any noreaster in this dry pattern-we can't even get it to rain from a cold frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 KNYC is making a run of tying 1947. upton's got a low of 63 for NYC tonight and 60 tomorrow, 57 Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 upton's got a low of 63 for NYC tonight and 60 tomorrow, 57 Sat. We might see it happen on Saturday, but the way urban heating is at KNYC, it would be safer to expect Wednesday Morning. Although we'll see what Saturday Morning will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Good luck with any noreaster in this dry pattern-we can't even get it to rain from a cold frontal passage. We're undergoing a pattern change. Wave lengths are increasing, the northern stream jet is starting to drop further south. We're going to be talking about synoptic mesoscale systems rathern than pure convection which is always a crap shoot. At the temperature gradient increases over the next few weeks, model scores will improve thanks to baroclinic zones which are largely absent during the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 KNYC is making a run of tying 1947. the last two weeks of September 1947 were the coldest or second coldest on record...I won't mind tying 1947 in December...1947 was one of a few years with a blizzard the first part of the year and another in December...1960 and 2003 and 2010 also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Shot at upper 40's in the interior burbs early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Did the front come thru already....now sunny and a bit drier feel imby now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The JMA winter forecast is out and it's going with another big -EPO winter. I would like to see how the actual October pattern plays out first. Last October featured the strong -EPO which correctly forecast the winter -EPO. Y201409.D0300.png I also look at storm tracks in October, as that often depicts how the winter will turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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