Cashtown_Coop Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 4.0" 23f Cashtown PA CTP is looking for possible coop observer in York. Contact me if interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I am not bitter that you get all the snow.... nope not at all.... Since it is St. Paddie's day, I figure a good old Irish curse in in order: May your snow blower suck may your shovel not may your Ice melt Freeze and the snowplow driver get stuck in you driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Any other long range threats out there of the frozen variety? I know its supposed to be cooler than normal, but knowing that averages are jumping up daily, conditions will have to be more perfect as we go later into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Any other long range threats out there of the frozen variety? I know its supposed to be cooler than normal, but knowing that averages are jumping up daily, conditions will have to be more perfect as we go later into spring. There is a signal for an east coast storm early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 No luck on the CFS weeklies...weeks 1-3 negative, week 4 near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 After looking at European, GEM and GFS ensembles I can honestly say I'm sick to my stomach on what I just saw. This is the winter that just won't end. 850 mb temp anamoly for days 5-10 show -10 to -20C below normal. Yes, Celsius not Fahrenheit. Strong cross polar flow type stuff with a -epo/+pna signal opening flood gates into eastern US. God forbid we have something cut underneath and phase with anything. With shortened wave lengths this time of year and further down the road, the atmosphere will be like a bomb going off. This is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It's amazing 40" of snow is the different between the MD/PA border and Harrisburg. And this has been done with essentially zero help from the Atlantic (NAO) the entire winter and this coming cold will occur without it once again. This winter has been a good lesson on utilizing all of the different teleconnections when coming to a conclusion of what the pattern is going to do and also proving that you don't need the -NAO to get cold and snowstorms. After looking at European, GEM and GFS ensembles I can honestly say I'm sick to my stomach on what I just saw. This is the winter that just won't end. 850 mb temp anamoly for days 5-10 show -10 to -20C below normal. Yes, Celsius not Fahrenheit. Strong cross polar flow type stuff with a -epo/+pna signal opening flood gates into eastern US. God forbid we have something cut underneath and phase with anything. With shortened wave lengths this time of year and further down the road, the atmosphere will be like a bomb going off. This is nuts With the above said, I think that this winter-long +NAO has def hurt us outside of the southern tier.. especially in the last month. These southern storms coming out have really had limited opportunities to phase with the positioning of the PV and ultimately just progress underneath as a weak low pressure accompanied by a slug of Gulf moisture. It's just how things have been setting up. We could have just as easily been talking about how March 1st and 16/17th throttled everyone in PA. This suppression might continue to be the case, especially if the Euro had it's way with how cold it has things. I agree though, if we had one of those systems that finds a way to phase... it'd be a big one. Otherwise, models seem to have more of a northern branch regime the next week or so with a few separate systems evident. Nothing that really catches my eye though at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 With the above said, I think that this winter-long +NAO has def hurt us outside of the southern tier.. especially in the last month. These southern storms coming out have really had limited opportunities to phase with the positioning of the PV and ultimately just progress underneath as a weak low pressure accompanied by a slug of Gulf moisture. It's just how things have been setting up. We could have just as easily been talking about how March 1st and 16/17th throttled everyone in PA. This suppression might continue to be the case, especially if the Euro had it's way with how cold it has things. I agree though, if we had one of those systems that finds a way to phase... it'd be a big one. Otherwise, models seem to have more of a northern branch regime the next week or so with a few separate systems evident. Nothing that really catches my eye though at the moment. i agree with you on all accounts. I was just pointing out how the potential may not be visible now, but any potential would need to be seriously monitored. This year has basically been the year of the PV. Unfortunately with the Atlantic setup, the PV usually taketh away and doesn't show much love for those above 40N. I know it has been a very rough year for you guys up north. I have been getting snow everywhere I go it seems just because of the two locations in my sig have been getting hammered all year. I mean jeez, 83Blizzard is over 80" now in southern York Co. and Harrisburg has struggled to hit 40. That's a 40" difference of 50 miles. In a winter characterized by gradient storms, the differences are truly adding up. Northern stream dominant systems don't usually perform well at this latitude unless all the cards fall into place. I can still see nickel and diming from frontal passages around Central and Northern Pa area until late March in this pattern, but it will be tough to get a major storm. If there is a system, it could be enough to get everyone into the game, but as the old saying goes, "The trend is your friend". I just hope to see the trend bucked for your guys sakes or heck just get warm. Seriously, I'll take the latter, but it's not looking promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 i agree with you on all accounts. I was just pointing out how the potential may not be visible now, but any potential would need to be seriously monitored. This year has basically been the year of the PV. Unfortunately with the Atlantic setup, the PV usually taketh away and doesn't show much love for those above 40N. I know it has been a very rough year for you guys up north. I have been getting snow everywhere I go it seems just because of the two locations in my sig have been getting hammered all year. I mean jeez, 83Blizzard is over 80" now in southern York Co. and Harrisburg has struggled to hit 40. That's a 40" difference of 50 miles. In a winter characterized by gradient storms, the differences are truly adding up. Northern stream dominant systems don't usually perform well at this latitude unless all the cards fall into place. I can still see nickel and diming from frontal passages around Central and Northern Pa area until late March in this pattern, but it will be tough to get a major storm. If there is a system, it could be enough to get everyone into the game, but as the old saying goes, "The trend is your friend". I just hope to see the trend bucked for your guys sakes or heck just get warm. Seriously, I'll take the latter, but it's not looking promising That's the crazy part, it really hasn't been a rough year for getting snow/ice by any stretch here or really anywhere in most of the rest of PA. I have had 2 6+ events (Dec 14th and Feb13th), a verified ice storm warning two days before Thanksgiving, and several decent advisory type events. All of that had added up to 60" here by Feb 18th which is above average for the season. I just haven't had any more snow since lol. Shades of 09-10 in that regard. Had 65" after the Feb 25-26th "snowicane" storm and that was all she wrote when summer came after the first few days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 That's the crazy part, it really hasn't been a rough year for getting snow/ice by any stretch here or really anywhere in most of the rest of PA. I have had 2 6+ events (Dec 14th and Feb13th), a verified ice storm warning two days before Thanksgiving, and several decent advisory type events. All of that had added up to 60" here by Feb 18th which is above average for the season. I just haven't had any more snow since lol. Shades of 09-10 in that regard. Had 65" after the Feb 25-26th "snowicane" storm and that was all she wrote when summer came after the first few days of March. Hmmm, I guess I didn't take into consideration all the different advisory type storms you guys up North have had. I'm not used to nickel and diming down here, so it's usually not on my mind. As far as winter goes, the one thing I know your area has encountered has been brutal cold for stretches. We've had it down our way, but the magnitude up north has been insane. I've experienced this year alone 7 sub zero temps. I can only imagine how many you guys have had up north. Truly stunning. Btw, I had 94" at my house in Carney, MD in 09-10 and I have never seen it get so warm so early that season. 6 weeks of winter brought all my snow and really marginal cold. That year will be in my memory bank till I'm dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 After looking at European, GEM and GFS ensembles I can honestly say I'm sick to my stomach on what I just saw. This is the winter that just won't end. 850 mb temp anamoly for days 5-10 show -10 to -20C below normal. Yes, Celsius not Fahrenheit. Strong cross polar flow type stuff with a -epo/+pna signal opening flood gates into eastern US. God forbid we have something cut underneath and phase with anything. With shortened wave lengths this time of year and further down the road, the atmosphere will be like a bomb going off. This is nuts I like bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 4.0" 23f Cashtown PA CTP is looking for possible coop observer in York. Contact me if interested I messaged you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS keeps hope alive for another wintry threat mid-next week with Northern Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS keeps hope alive for another wintry threat mid-next week with Northern Stream. GGEM and Euro both with major threats around this time as well, hopes for the JamieO storm still live on!!! Although this pattern is looking a hell of a lot more like January than March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If it's going to be cold - than snow gosh darn it. We have some more records to break in this great state of ours. Heard it destroys NE area, let us see if we can get this revved up in quicker time. All hail the mighty -EPO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Sun angle is the enemy now. It starts going over 50 degrees azimuth the 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I would be a lot more excited if I lived from the poconos northeast. Looks like a late developing miller b type system to me and climo says we lose in that situation. I doubt we get out of this pattern without flakes but I also doubt we see the kind of big snow to make this disgusting weather worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It is disgusting that its gonna be this cold in mid to late March and we cant get a damn decent snow. Im sick of it. Either warm up or hit us with a bomb....its a bunch of BS! my thoughts exactly. I wasnt here last year but wasnt it similar up here? A lot if cold and no snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 00z Euro backed off on the extreme cold somewhat for Monday. The lowest 850 mb temperatures over central PA are around -16C on Monday, compared with the sub -20C 850 mb temperatures it had been showing before. Both the 00z Euro ensemble mean and operational GFS show a relaxation in the cold around and past day 10. A bit of troughing is suggested to develop around that time in the southern portion of the EPO domain while the left-over Alaskan ridge moves poleward. This may help weaken the PV lobe that has been present over eastern Canada much of the last couple of months. You can see on the 500 mb anomaly day 10 forecast of the ensemble mean how as the PV lobe moves more poleward, ridging over the eastern US increases especially with the upstream trough coming onshore in the west. If the Alaskan ridge and PV lobe get far enough north (as current guidance suggests) our weather may turn more springlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 my thoughts exactly. I wasnt here last year but wasnt it similar up here? A lot if cold and no snow? yes it was...last winter the snow here in Altoona was minimal...Im thinking we only got 20 some inches all winter. Dont quote me on that. Rayno has a map where he thinks theres a snow threat for Tues Wed next week and youre right...if youre not in eastern and northeastern PA it looks like its a miss for central and western PA. Par for the course....ho hum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 yes it was...last winter the snow here in Altoona was minimal...Im thinking we only got 20 some inches all winter. Dont quote me on that. Rayno has a map where he thinks theres a snow threat for Tues Wed next week and youre right...if youre not in eastern and northeastern PA it looks like its a miss for central and western PA. Par for the course....ho hum Nah def not, Altoona area had a near or slightly above average season last winter and a much more active March snow wise than we're having so far this year. Just glancing back at our March threads last year there were at least 3 snow events and me reporting thundersnow for one of them around this date. March was pretty cold last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 No mention of upcoming storm potential. Maybe 1 or 2 on the table? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 No mention of upcoming storm potential. Maybe 1 or 2 on the table? Sent from my iPhone no mention here but there is if you look elsewhere... I have a feeling it will be kept south again... just the way this month has gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 No mention of upcoming storm potential. Maybe 1 or 2 on the table? Sent from my iPhone Models have backed off lately but I still think there is the potential for the clipper type system diving in to bomb out and pull the whole system closer in like earlier runs of the GFS and EC but even then this type of miller b northern stream system is usually more of a threat to our east and northeast. There are very rare exceptions like Feb 78 but even a setup like that, the high snowfall totals in east central PA in that storm relied on very high ratios and I doubt that is possible this time of year. Even an exact replay of the Feb 78 miller b bomb storm but compensated for this time of year would only have been a small to moderate snowfall for most of central PA. I guess its a shot, even if a long shot, and its all we got so worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 no mention here but there is if you look elsewhere... I have a feeling it will be kept south again... just the way this month has gone If that is not appropriate Penn delete please...I thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Um well lets see how long this lasts, I'm guessing just like our last couple of storms at 12Z Friday it starts disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nah def not, Altoona area had a near or slightly above average season last winter and a much more active March snow wise than we're having so far this year. season_snow2012-2013.png Just glancing back at our March threads last year there were at least 3 snow events and me reporting thundersnow for one of them around this date. March was pretty cold last year too. WOW...I mustve been asleep...I dont recall that much snow....maybe Im thinking two years ago....I guess it was two years ago we had the early spring where most of March was very warm...thanks for the update and the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Lol. I'm sure it will change 10x, but another modeled 10 inches for my hood is going to put my wife in the looney house. I'm in the 20 or nothing camp. If she is going to be put away it might as well be in style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Lol 20 or nothing? We have never had that from a storm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Lol. I'm sure it will change 10x, but another modeled 10 inches for my hood is going to put my wife in the looney house. I'm in the 20 or nothing camp. If she is going to be put away it might as well be in style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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