golfer07840 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Upton is a bit bullish with 2 to 4 for Morris and Warren..or is it just me? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 it would be ironic if we finally pull off an accumulating snow in this annoying month out of an inverted trough. as rare as they are, they do get us good once every 5 years or so. Visual aide of the inverted trough going from low off coast into Southern New Jersey, PA, and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Upton is a bit bullish with 2 to 4 for Morris and Warren..or is it just me? Sent from my SCH-I545 it's not you... nor upton. it's mt. holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Upton is a bit bullish with 2 to 4 for Morris and Warren..or is it just me? Sent from my SCH-I545 Mt holly but yes a bit bullish and they've been burned all month with forecasts way too high in north Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Traditional miller A's like Boxing Day phase over the Dixie states. Cyclogenisis tends to occur in the northern gulf rather than off the eastern FL coast. They are normally associated with squall lines, sometimes severe crossing Florida. You almost want the low to be inland over Georgia and South Carolina in order to get a good trajectory up the coastline. This storm has none of that. This is just a deeper version of the classic ocean storm that gets going too far off the SE Coast like White Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Upton is a bit bullish with 2 to 4 for Morris and Warren..or is it just me? Sent from my SCH-I545 That's the Mt Holly CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Traditional miller A's like Boxing Day phase over the Dixie states. Cyclogenisis tends to occur in the northern gulf rather than off the eastern FL coast. They are normally associated with squall lines, sometimes severe crossing Florida. You almost want the low to be inland over Georgia and South Carolina in order to get a good trajectory up the coastline. This storm has none of that. This storm has 1 thing : Heartbreak. ( we were only close to being close) nonethless, it was likely our last shot for the winter. saying goodbye - especially after a soul crushing March is tough but Im deeplu grateful we got as much as we did. we were 1 HECS away from breaking our record. For a flickering moment I thought we would ahve the story book ending with this storm but its not meant to be. so we say Thx mother nature and onwards to severe season in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is just a stronger version of the classic ocean storm that gets going too far off the SE Coast like White Juan. White Juan was an awesome looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has been very progressive all winter, at some point, things will change. If we get a moderate El Niño this summer the tropics should be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm still mildly interested to see if the inverted trough can get in here, but a lot of the 15z SREF members lost it. Seems like a big long shot at this point even to get 2-4". I think this will be an inch or less almost everywhere, maybe Eastern Suffolk can come in with more. It will be a surf generator and windmaker, that's it. The inverted trough I never really thought was a possibility (9 out of 10 times they're bogus), and the fast southern stream and late phase took away what hope I had from 0z last night on. That's been the biggest problem here, if we could get that better timed like Boxing Day, we could live with a more progressive ridge/trough. But instead it just makes for a Nova Scotia blizzard, that's it. I'm readier than ever to just do away with all these suppressed/forming too late teasers and have Spring. This whole pattern is beyond annoying already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Mt Holly's latest briefing also mentions a period of freezing drizzle in the higher terrain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Traditional miller A's like Boxing Day phase over the Dixie states. Cyclogenisis tends to occur in the northern gulf rather than off the eastern FL coast. They are normally associated with squall lines, sometimes severe crossing Florida. You almost want the low to be inland over Georgia and South Carolina in order to get a good trajectory up the coastline. This storm has none of that. Your analysis and just your posts in general have improved about 1000% over the last few months...thnxs for the PBP also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has been very progressive all winter, at some point, things will change. If we get a moderate El Niño this summer the tropics should be active. El Ninos cause shear over the Atlantic and would likely make for a boring Atlantic hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 White Juan was an awesome looking storm. This is going to look amazing on the visible Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So for now roughly 48 hours to go I'm conservatively pessimistic. Seems that the inverted trough will mainly hit areas between DC and Philly and the coastal will end up well offshore and southeast of the benchmark. Congrats to the GFS which never really showed much of anything and congrats to the NAM for not giving us one of its taylor made HECS runs. They will never get hit by the inverted trof, if that thing verifies it'll end up here or NE of here, the only way that region gets hit by inverted trofs is by systems that track closer to the coast, they usually get systematically involved inverted trofs, not inverted trofs on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The pattern has been very progressive all winter, at some point, things will change. If we get a moderate El Niño this summer the tropics should be active. WPAC ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is going to look amazing on the visible Wednesday. For sure... definitely going to want to be up for the first vis images at sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Modelology, not meteorology, but all four globals out to sea, well, Dayton can beat Syracuse, the unexpected can happen, but most of the models, most of the runs, had this as a near miss for days, and March was a month of disappointment, but y'all had a solid Winter. And not the home subforum, but a solid blizzard still on very possible for Cape Cod, and in the subforum, decent snowstorm still possible Suffolk County. 30 or 40 mile shift on the Euro ensemble (at this point, can't expect much more than that realistically) puts in excess of 5 inches into Eastern Nassau County, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Your analysis and just your posts in general have improved about 1000% over the last few months...thnxs for the PBP also.Thanks for the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks for the kind words. Yea Yanks, thanks esp for those who don't have paid memberships... - Looking forward to severe weather season. I hope everyone can join us this year. It always seems like only the hardcore enthusiasts come around in the late spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks for the kind words. I second that. Awesome job. Honestly I used to think you just always had snow goggles on lol. Aside from some kneejerk reactions to blips in early model data, you've had major improvement and I actually look forward to reading your play by plays. 10x better job than I could do! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 WPAC ftw? 2004 was a good weak to moderate ENSO year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks for the kind words. Yea, good job with the PBP Yanks. Here's hoping for that HECS next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 For sure... definitely going to want to be up for the first vis images at sunrise. This looks more like something that you would expect to see with the Iceland or Aleutian low rather than east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sometimes the models over correct in this range so I still wouldn't expect the final outcome to be exactly what's currently depicted but I believe the door is now shut regarding a major impact from the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This looks more like something that you would commonly expect to see with the Iceland or Aleutian low rather than east of Cape Cod. North32America_msl_72.gif I guess the elusive, current period, major March storm will have to wait for another year Blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sometimes the models over correct in this range so I still wouldn't expect the final outcome to be exactly what's currently depicted but I believe the door is now shut regarding a major impact from the CCB. From the Upton NWS afternoon update: Still hope for those in Suffolk County, NY. Hey, who knows, weather forecasting is challenging and there have been surprises in the past. STILL...A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK FROM ITS CURRENT FORECAST COULD SPARE ALL OF OUR FORECAST ZONES FROM WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THE ZONES THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HWO...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS...WILL NOT EXPAND THIS MENTION WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A MARGINAL EVENT THAT WOULD START LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not for nothing, it still ought to be pretty darn windy Tuesday evening, especially out on Long Island. Wind advisories for sure, possibly high wind warnings over the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not for nothing, it still ought to be pretty darn windy Tuesday evening, especially out on Long Island. Wind advisories for sure, possibly high wind warnings over the twin forks.I think twin forks HWW is pretty locked. This should end up about as deep as we see around here regardless of how far east. Even Boxing Day had some insane winds far removed west of the center in pa which missed the precip. If this gets into the 960s and rapidly at that winds are certain. I would think hurricane force wind warnings over the offshore waters and storm warning for eastern coastal waters. Most likely gale warnings for ny harbor and western waters. Coastal impacts are one of the least discussed issues on this forum. Li should be spared damaging surf due to the northerly component but OBX should see some serious erosion and washovers. Anyone who has some spare time Wednesday take a ride to local beaches to see the real show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 18z GFS OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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