nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ill patiently wait on EURO. If it holds serve with 2-4 ...Ill take it to bank since it has been most consitent since the get go 5 days ago with this storm. If it folds its tent to GFS then Ill kiss Winter goodbye fondly and PLEASE bring on 80's as my birthday gift Mar 31! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 IMO, the latest run of the GFS reaffirmed that the best chance for several inches of snow may lie across parts of Suffolk County and eastern CT in the NY metro area. Cape Cod out to Atlantic Canada probably has the best chance at a significant snowfall. There still remains some uncertainty, but considering that this run of the GFS has incorporated very good sampling, some move by the ECMWF toward the GFS may be more likely than the ECMWF's ticking any farther westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 of what I want to see Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 People started blaming convective feedback three days ago. I can't believe how down you seem today. Cheer up. There is still a slim chance this may over perform. Anyway, I really appreciate all your helpful posts this winter. I learn more every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS looks too far east to me, but the UKMET is more of a consolation prize for Eastern Long Island. The Euro will weigh in shortly on how well Suffolk County ends up doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 I can't believe how down you seem today. Cheer up. There is still a slim chance this may over perform. Anyway, I really appreciate all your helpful posts this winter. I learn more every year. I'm not down, just being realistic based on what i'm seeing on all model guidance today. Glad I was able to help this winter. And looking forward to spring and summer forecasting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I can't believe how down you seem today. Cheer up. There is still a slim chance this may over perform. Anyway, I really appreciate all your helpful posts this winter. I learn more every year. It's called realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ukie is decent for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We actually did get a decent shift, to the East. Good job by the models all the way down the list. The GGEM was the most erratic. Still holding out hope for some inverted trough action out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm still holding on to the rule that the low wants to follow the Gulf Stream. If that's the case this is still a big hit for se ne. Eastern li would would be on the fringe of good banding. You could see 8 inches in mtk and an inch in West Hampton. I wouldn't be surprised to see the western part of our area see zero accum. The other 2 options OTS and HEC for NYC look to less then 25 percent combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I had said that I think there'd be a fairly substantial shift west or east on most of the models. So, they went east enough and if they hold this evening, I'd say this is over. Models did a great job Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I had said that I think there'd be a fairly substantial shift west or east on most of the models. So, they went east enough and if they hold this evening, I'd say this is over. Models did a great job Sent from my iPhone Substantially west or east. Hard to go wrong with that call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm still holding on to the rule that the low wants to follow the Gulf Stream. If that's the case this is still a big hit for se ne. Eastern li would would be on the fringe of good banding. You could see 8 inches in mtk and an inch in West Hampton. I wouldn't be surprised to see the western part of our area see zero accum. The other 2 options OTS and HEC for NYC look to less then 25 percent combined 8" to 1" over 12 miles is a TIGHT gradient. I think a little too tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We'll see what the EURO says at 2 today. If it shifts west with its OP and ensembles as well, it'll raise a big red flag. If it stays the course of goes slightly east from 0z the chance of LI even seeing greater than 4" is less than 30% IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We'll see what the EURO says at 2 today. If it shifts west with its OP and ensembles as well, it'll raise a big red flag. If it stays the course of goes slightly east from 0z the chance of LI even seeing greater than 4" is less than 30% IMO. The WPC is pretty much going with just a blend of the 0z Euro and ensembles until the 12z comes in. PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECENS MEANCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 All the GEFS members miss the area. Either the Euro and the ensembles are wrong or the other models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I have a hard time believing the euro will not go EAST at 2 . The new data was absorbed by the rest of the suite and they went east . I think the euro does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We'll see what the EURO says at 2 today. If it shifts west with its OP and ensembles as well, it'll raise a big red flag. If it stays the course of goes slightly east from 0z the chance of LI even seeing greater than 4" is less than 30% IMO. My guess is that the eastward moves on the other guidance with the improved sampling says a lot. One wasn't dealing with a single model's moving eastward. Hence, the odds probably favor to strongly favor the Euro's moving eastward in its forthcoming run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What a reversal from Jan and Feb when we got hit with everything to now everything dodging like crazy. The snow map for the month of March is going to look very anomalous for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 JMA misses everyone in the northeast. Looks like the GGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I have a hard time believing the euro will not go EAST at 2 . The new data was absorbed by the rest of the suite and they went east . I think the euro does the same. 0z may have been hiccup since it deviated from the 12z stronger 0z weaker pattern it had been showing for days. But even a further east Euro will probably be better over Eastern LI/CC than the other 12z guidance today.It's not a big deal since western sections were never really in the game to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 0z may have been hiccup since it deviated from the 12z stronger 0z weaker pattern it had been showing for days. But even a further east Euro will probably be better over Eastern LI than the other 12z guidance today. But it's not a big deal since western sections were never really in the game to begin with. Yeh if I were on the east end I would have my eyes open Man The Cape is the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeh if I were on the east end I would have my eyes open Man The Cape is the place to be. I am just curious to see if the pressure can dip below 960 while it's still due east of Cape Cod which would be rare for that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeh if I were on the east end I would have my eyes open Man The Cape is the place to be. Cape may and cape cod will have made out well this month unfortunately very little in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What a reversal from Jan and Feb when we got hit with everything to now everything dodging like crazy. The snow map for the month of March is going to look very anomalous for sure. Yea man what a shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 UKMET still manages to produce 2 inches area-wide. Of course, will lose some to melting, but we might get a dusting to an inch or so. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&type=PR〈=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Here comes our big shift that we were anticipaiting, just in the wrong direction. This will break a lot of hearts in Eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah, I have to admit I would be in shock if this did not go much farther east on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Here comes our big shift that we were inticipaiting, just in the wrong direction. This will break a lot of hearts in Eastern New England. At least we weren't really in the bullseye with this storm. Now SNE is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What a reversal from Jan and Feb when we got hit with everything to now everything dodging like crazy. The snow map for the month of March is going to look very anomalous for sure.This was probably the cruelest way for mother nature to even out the NE/MID-ATLANTIC. We got january and february and they dominated march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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