Heisy Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 consistency I totally disagree here...There is never going to be 100% consistency with ANY storm. I mean before every storm people are always like "models are all over the place"...Well, for the most part, they are usually going to be different. Of course the models will be slightly different with their tracks and development with this storm. However, 0 consistency to me means some models show a major storm for NYC while others are Out to sea. Right now we're bordering on some way out to sea and others being a graze...I think the writing is on the wall for this one personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 consistency I think your expectations of computer guidance is wayyyyy too high. The models have been damn good with this event. I'd say one of the best modeled events of the season considering they picked up on this threat 9-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12Z NAM has a period of light snow at NY La Guardia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think your expectations of computer guidance is wayyyyy too high. The models have been damn good with this event. I'd say one of the best modeled events of the season considering they picked up on this threat 9-10 days out. The Euro mean was the 1st model to pick up on this big threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12Z GFS also has a period of light snow for NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Pretty much expected as the GFS usually ends up east of Euro with very strong storms. The only run of interest today will be to see if the 12z Euro shifts east or holds serve for the folks out in Suffolk. I can`t toss it , because I don`t like it , but I would much rather see the 500 MB of the Euro at hour 72- and see how it matches up with the 84 at 0z . I care less about the GGEM and UKMET . But you don`t want to see every center run east before we get to 2 pm. Makes it anticlimactic for me . Wana see 1 Global come West , to keep us in the game . We will see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think your expectations of computer guidance is wayyyyy too high. The models have been damn good with this event. I'd say one of the best modeled events of the season considering they picked up on this threat 9-10 days out. 100 percent agree with this. And saying the ensembles are all over the place sort of misses the point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If only.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks. Same here. I'm with you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Major latent heat release on the GFS becomes noticeable at hour 60 with that new area of vorticity coming into existance way off shore. You can see heights crashing in response. By hour 63 it's a total explosion and game over. sometimes this is real sometimes it's fake. Never the less the Upward vertical velocity on the GFS during this process are off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks. I don't agree at all. The energy coming in on the eastern periphery of the mid level ridge on the west coast is flat, progressive and not nearly as energetic as boxing day. The window for this to amplify westward near the coast is all but closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 still good consensus on a scraper for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 consistency How can you post this? The track has wobbled a bit and forecast models are struggling to discern between individual nuances in the phase...and that is to be expected. But there has been tremendous consistency in the idea that this storm system will develop too far east, and too late for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GGEM is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How long will people blame convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 still good consensus on a scraper for us Please give us a range? 0-1", or 1-2"? Thanx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How long will people blame convective feedback?Until they go to school and learn what it actually is, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GGEM looks like the GFS. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well then March will go into the record book as a highly anomalous month with well below normal temps and little to no snow. The cold snap will only enhance the misery of this month. Bottom line is that March is the most disappointing weather month by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 How long will people blame convective feedback? People started blaming convective feedback three days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I do think that low further to the SE is being overdone by the GFS, and it is helping to screw things for the low closer to the coast by shifting and weakening the baroclinic zone. I can recall seeing this before on the GFS only to later reduce its intensity/influence in later runs. It is another element that will have to be watched. The euro should have a better handle on this evolution, so, will have to see how 12z handles these features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 How can you post this? The track has wobbled a bit and forecast models are struggling to discern between individual nuances in the phase...and that is to be expected. But there has been tremendous consistency in the idea that this storm system will develop too far east, and too late for our area. Yep barring a miracle l hats off to the gfs it did not budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 baring a mirical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I guess it's time to follow NAM and the mesoscale models to see if we get snow from inverted trough. Seems like the only way we'll get accumulating snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I guess it's time to follow NAM and the mesoscale models to see if we get snow from inverted trough. Seems like the only way we'll get accumulating snow now. longshot, of course. Actually, i think we would want the storm to track pretty far east for the inverted trough to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some people just didn't pay attention in English class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There is 0 consistency there is very good consistency. Its just not the consistency you want. Forget what you see with the NAM (silly inverted trough), NNM and ARW....GGEM/GFS/Euro (to some extent) are ALL east and have been for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some people just didn't pay attention in English class. No they're too reliant on autocorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We would need a boxing day type shift with this, and for some reason I think that's possible with this one. I'm giving it to the 0z suite tonight. If nothing changes then I'll cave and it'll be a congrats to the OTS folks. snap your fingers...make a wish...blow out the candles. That is what it sounds like. You guys use ZERO meteorology.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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