Ralph Wiggum Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 SREF's are solid with the inverted trough. 0.25" plus for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 SREF's are solid with the inverted trough. 0.25" plus for all. Yep, that's our only hope and they are so tough to pinpoint and have actually verify. Here's hoping though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yep, that's our only hope and they are so tough to pinpoint and have actually verify. Here's hoping though... We are in excellent position for the inverted trof if it happens...odds are its going to be somewhere between BLM and BDR or so...the low gets too wrapped up for it to really hit SNE, so it either happens vicinity NYC or not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJohn Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Impact on central LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 We are in excellent position for the inverted trof if it happens...odds are its going to be somewhere between BLM and BDR or so...the low gets too wrapped up for it to really hit SNE, so it either happens vicinity NYC or not at all. Forgive the naivete of the question : but why the heck do Norluns seem consistently out of our ability to forcast correctly? the batting % is way below than it would be for many other storm types- if u will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Impact on central LI?It'll be windy, that's probably about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah people are testy lately. Do they get this riled for summer thunder storms? I'm not here in the summer and I DO NOT like severe weather so I have no idea. Thunder, lightning, derechos, you can keep em all. Heat waves too, don't like em. I am looking forward to arguing endlessly over whether the dewpoint will be 70 or 72 on a sultry July afternoon...as long as I can do it from an air conditioned room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Impact on central LI? none. partly Cloudy and windy-enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 none. partly Cloudy and windy-enjoy I'm guessing you're tired of snow. Snow is still in the forecast, just very light for Central LI. I think a dusting to 2 inches seems like a good estimate right now. You have to go to Montauk to get more than that. And yes, very windy with gusts 35+. If the track of the storm was 150 miles west, it would be a major blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I am looking forward to arguing endlessly over whether the dewpoint will be 70 or 72 on a sultry July afternoon...as long as I can do it from an air conditioned room. +1. I'll be doing the same from my new boat. Just got a new AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 none. partly Cloudy and windy-enjoy Bad post. Snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm guessing you're tired of snow. Snow is still in the forecast, just very light for Central LI. I think a dusting to 2 inches seems like a good estimate right now. You have to go to Montauk to get more than that. And yes, very windy with gusts 35+. If the track of the storm was 150 miles west, it would be a major blizzard. not likely...the QPF shield will be alot more compact-as the well offshore storm bombs out, the qpf shield will be pulled in towards the center...unless there is a real norlun trough, no one is getting anything except for some wind and a whole lot of subsidence around the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Bad post. Snow showers. weren't you the same clown who said you were getting 4-7 on 3/3 b/c Upton's snow map said you were? Verification was zero. - and wow a snow shower? Exciting stuff! Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 weren't you the same clown who said you were getting 4-7 on 3/3 b/c Upton's snow map said you were? Verification was zero. - and wow a snow shower? Exciting stuff! Sign me up Not exactly 3/3 NYC - 0.1" LGA - 0.4" JFK - 0.6" ISP - 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM Pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 weren't you the same clown who said you were getting 4-7 on 3/3 b/c Upton's snow map said you were? Verification was zero. - and wow a snow shower? Exciting stuff! Sign me up Ah Anthony isn't a clown. He's a good kid. He's a good fella. I always like his optimism. Me, OTOH, I'm a surly middle aged guy with a bad attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM Pbp? No point brotha, you'll be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM Pbp? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 No point brotha, you'll be disappointed I am waiting for the 12z/25 NAM to be disappointed. I am not interested in 2 extra days of being disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Nam looks west Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So I'm going out on a limb here. I realize it's a lonely camp, and as such if I'm wrong I'm subject to getting my head chopped off. BUT, I have a sneaking suspicion we see a last minute trend west, beginning tonight. I have little to support this other than the drop off in the NAO over the next 2 days, which will be going from 1, approximately to 0.5; however, I believe this to be quite important. While this may not seem like much, the slowing down of the westerlies, may be enough to get this system to slow down to a point where it can get the positive feedback going faster at an earlier stage (lower latitude). In my experience, the models, in general, are notoriously behind shifts in the NAO. I'm not expecting anything significant for interior sections, but would not want to rule out a trend toward the BM. Coastal sections, namely LI, Eastern Conn, RI, and eastern Mass. should all stay vigilante imho. I do not have high confidence in this (for obvious reasons: model consensus etc.), it is just the way that I'm leaning at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The NAM just threw a Hail Mary that was dropped in the end zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM looks like everything else, disturbingly close to being a huge hit but not quite good enough due to the just-barely-too-progressive nature of the mid level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RPM still west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILiveforThis! Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In the immortal words of Horace Greeley, "Go west young NAM...." Not happening but couldn't resist the play on words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 The NAM just threw a Hail Mary that was dropped in the end zone Moved west by 100 miles but it was really far east and a terrible outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 0z NAM drier for NYC north. Inverted trough fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Moved west by 100 miles but it was really far east and a terrible outlier.Take a look at the 500mb winds bro, what a teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Take a look at the 500mb winds bro, what a teaser. Yea its painful to watch, just a little earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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