Mitchel Volk Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The GEM had a " crazy" one the other day. At this point I think that is grabbing at straws, one can always hope thou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 . Man, that second low on the RGEM lines up nicely with the extremely warm SST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm quite interested in the front right entrance region of the jet streak around hr 40. Given the proximity to the gulf stream, there must be very strong surface convergence at that time not too far off the North Carolina Coast i.e. very fast pressure falls, and a new SLP predominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, it's not a major shift but the GFS is developing the low closer to the coast this run than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Double barrel low showing up on the Rgem: almost what the Euro was showing back on Thursday PM RUN with a dual low??? Trying to track two lows is troublesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Man, that second low on the RGEM lines up nicely with the extremely warm SST A la JB!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This run is definitely ticking west of 18z. You can tell just by looking at the height contours being further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This run is definitely ticking west of 18z. You can tell just by looking at the height contours being further west this run. It's trying hard to pop the double barreled low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This run is definitely ticking west of 18z. You can tell just by looking at the height contours being further west this run. Yea deff, it still looks like those thunderstorms might skew it to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I think it would have to happen earlier than that actually...from 30 to 36hours when the surface low develops a few hundred miles off the southeast coast. That needs to be changed completely but it won't be unless there is a significant model error in all regards, mainly including the mid and upper level jet positioning. There will always be convection when you have a developing surface low and incoming vort..and I don't think that is attributing to the model being too far east. Here is where you need a correction. The surface low is way too far east for us and the mid level flow too flat. That was always the biggest red flag for me-how fast that initial low develops and how far east. Maybe it's partly convective feedback driven, maybe it should be corrected weaker, who knows, but it drags the whole setup too far east. That, plus the progressiveness of the pattern out west pushing everything east. I just don't see this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It has a huge blob of convection all the way close to Bermuda while the main low is near OBX. I really don't know what to make of that. Anyway Cape Cod gets clipped this run by the CCB. This run is 0.10"+ for us. The 0.50"+ kisses Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The 500mb jet streak dug 50 miles or so further south this run. So tantalizingly close to something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Consistency more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ukmet brushes the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This GFS run is no accumulating snow for us and not a major snowfall for anyone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm curious to find out what the GGEM will show tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ggem out in ~ 15 min or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The 500mb jet streak dug 50 miles or so further south this run. So tantalizingly close to something better. This entire last month has been "so tantalizingly close to something better". Time to let it go and hope this is the end of the teases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm curious to find out what the GGEM will show twwn[/quote I don't really see why it will be any different than all of the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The models would have to shift over a 100 miles to the west for us to get more than snow showers, the gfs was merely a tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Which do you prefer , a 24-36 inch blockbuster blizzard promised for days, hyped by everyone and then nothing OR an OTS scenario that suddenly defying odds drops 24-36 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 CMC way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Which do you prefer , a 24-36 inch blockbuster blizzard promised for days, hyped by everyone and then nothing OR an OTS scenario that suddenly defying odds drops 24-36 inches Lol why would anyone who likes snow pick scenario 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 CMC way westLmao said who? Explain your reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lol why would anyone who likes snow pick scenario 1? Some people like the anticipation more than the event. The anticipation usually lasts longer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Because the 0z run is way west Lmao said who? Explain your reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Because the 0z run is way west Let's see the maps bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I Because the 0z run is way west Here's the link: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Let's see the maps budNice attitude...Lmao http://m.imgur.com/SlyYzMQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That's the RGEM, they want to know what the GGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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