wxsniss Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Mode / median clearly west of mean on those Euro ens. Take out that single 1000L outlier and you shift the mean further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Heavy left clustering with the bulk of the members on the WNW side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A left hook to the jaw then a right jab. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Lol, that would be absolutely insane(ly awesome). That clustering for a bump NW is definitely good to see. Well, even box seems to be saying give this another 24 hours before clinging to any notions of confidence in the models. Really cool that a hit from a system with this kind of power is on the table, in late march no less. I need 14" to crack the top 10 seasons, so here's to hoping. Ironically, the season that I would displace....1982. Another cold, late season juggernaut that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah that's a real good sign for a bump NW IMO. Those three members wicked far south east are for sure skewing the mean. Clustering to the NW is a very good sign. Take out the three outliers and this would have bumped northwest a good bit from 00z Edit: thanks for posting that visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Mode / median clearly west of mean on those Euro ens. Take out that single 1000L outlier and you shift the mean further west. Yea, the one Forky ran from his hot tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I mean if you're tossing outliers you'd have to toss the few way left as well lol, but the clustering just to the west of the mean is a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A left hook to the jaw then a right jab. Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The, the one Forky ran from his hot tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The, the one Forky ran from his hot tub. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I actually agree with this, but until we see that manifest itself in the mean, paint me skeptical. Makes no sense. Anyone who knows statistics understands that the mean is the weakest representation as it is skewed by outliers which in this case is way se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I mean if you're tossing outliers you'd have to toss the few way left as well lol, but the clustering just to the west of the mean is a good look. The spread is much greater to the east, though....those two love children of Forky are def. skewing the mean (984 and 1000mb). Once we can muster up enough money to take a back-alley rusty coat hanger to those, it may nudge nw. That cluster just to the nw looks as though it may pass near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I mean if you're tossing outliers you'd have to toss the few way left as well lol, but the clustering just to the west of the mean is a good look. The two way SE are twice the distance from the mean as are the two to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That cluster just to the nw looks as though it may pass near the BM. Yeah, that's a pretty nice cluster NW of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The two way SE are twice the distance from the mean as are the two to the west. If the spread were that far to the west, then we'd have one near Albany...seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The spread is much greater to the east, though....those two love children of Forky are def. skewing the mean (984 and 1000mb). Once we can muster up enough money to take a back-alley rusty coat hanger to those, it may nudge nw. That cluster just to the nw looks as though it may pass near the BM. Yeah definite signal that the Euro and its ens may nudge west later. BM would probably be good for you but I'll be smoking CCB exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Makes no sense. Anyone who knows statistics understands that the mean is the weakest representation as it is skewed by outliers which in this case is way se. Yeah, good point. The median would be a much better representation. Never thought of it that away before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Makes no sense. Anyone who knows statistics understands that the mean is the weakest representation as it is skewed by outliers which in this case is way se. I do think in this case that the spread NW isn't as big of a factor as many of the models are developing a pseudo-inverted trough at the surface NW of the "low center" prior to it really wrapping up. That is probably giving you some artificial looking spread to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On the other hand, there is a greater volume of outliers to the west.....that line of five s of MA. There aren't as many that far out to the east. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anyone know how the ensemble mean is calculated? Are stronger, west solutions given more weight than a weaker east solution of the same distance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I do think in this case that the spread NW isn't as big of a factor as many of the models are developing a pseudo-inverted trough at the surface NW of the "low center" prior to it really wrapping up. That is probably giving you some artificial looking spread to the NW. Watch it turn into a norlun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anyone know how the ensemble mean is calculated? Are stronger, west solutions given more weight than a weaker east solution of the same distance? A mean is calculated for each gridpoint from each ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Watch it turn into a norlun... It has that look initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anyone know how the ensemble mean is calculated? Are stronger, west solutions given more weight than a weaker east solution of the same distance? Must be some sort of Langragian way of calculating mean from location and intensity of each member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A mean is calculated for each gridpoint from each ensemble member. Yeah I think it's pure numbers with no weighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/Ensemble_mean_and_median.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I do think in this case that the spread NW isn't as big of a factor as many of the models are developing a pseudo-inverted trough at the surface NW of the "low center" prior to it really wrapping up. That is probably giving you some artificial looking spread to the NW. Never, ever, ever like seeing those because that implies interference, and is usually an illustration of the model trying to figure out how exactly it wants to fu** you, and deconstruct potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah I think it's pure numbers with no weighting. I wish someone calculated an ensemble median. Would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Watch it turn into a norlun... I'm not laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Why qpf mean is often useless The ensemble mean (EM) forecast is a simple but effective product from the EPS. The averaging serves as a dynamic filter to reduce or remove atmospheric features that vary amongst the members and are therefore likely to be regarded as less predictable at the time. Any non-predictable features that have been removed are not lost but re-enter as probabilities. The EM is most suited to parameters like temperature and pressure, which usually have a rather symmetric Gaussian distribution. It is less suitable for wind speeds and precipitation because of their skewed distributions. For these parameters, the median might be more useful. It is defined as the value of the 25th ensemble member, if the 50 members are ordered according to rising (ranked) values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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