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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Welp ... not to hone details that will surely poke the collective hornet's nest but the 12z operational Euro "appeals" on the rip-n-read synoptic chart to pretty much dump 1 to 3 feet of snow for SNE/CNE and Maine

 

I really can't believe you posted that.  I wonder who's twittering that....

 

Yeah at 06z...and the run initializes at 12z...so 138 hours out if you want to be nitpicky, which is much closer to 6 days.

 

Lots of time for this to sh*t the bed.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Well this thread is pretty well 12-15th focused  ... but, as Will and I had previously stressed, this is more of an era of opportunities over anything that would produce a single event. 

 

The transpiration of the MJO and it's effectiveness on inducing +PNA will "probably" take 10 days (or so...)

 

Already I am seeing fuzzy cues for another event 18-21st of the month, maybe sooner. 

 

The -NAO component of the original analysis does not appear as striking to me.  No sooner ... the operational runs that are carrying a more important event for next week are actually showing more progression.  Thing is this particular Euro solution just has such a massive areal coverage to the storm that it would still take a good 24 hours [probably] to get it by the boards.  But pick a model, and you can see the standing wave aspect to the flow, with additional impulses ready to topple the western ridge and perhaps carve out a 2nd installment. 

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

Well this thread is pretty well 12-15th focused  ... but, as Will and I had previously stressed, this is more of an era of opportunities over anything that would produce a single event. 

 

The transpiration of the MJO and it's effectiveness on inducing +PNA will "probably" take 10 days (or so...)

 

Already I am seeing fuzzy cues for another event 18-21st of the month, maybe sooner. 

 

The -NAO component of the original analysis does not appear as striking to me.  No sooner ... the operational runs that are carrying a more important event for next week are actually showing more progression.  Thing is this particular Euro solution just has such a massive areal coverage to the storm that it would still take a good 24 hours [probably] to get it by the boards.  But pick a model, and you can see the standing wave aspect to the flow, with additional impulses ready to topple the western ridge and perhaps carve out a 2nd installment. 

 

Thank you katodog!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I really can't believe you posted that.  I wonder who's twittering that....

 

 

Lots of time for this to sh*t the bed.

 

 

I don't twitter...

 

But also, I said the rip-n-read synoptic appeal... that doesn't really say much other than a significant event in actual reading-comprehension

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
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Not on that depiction (which is what I was referencing)...at least in our region save maybe the Cape and south coast of RI.

 

My bad, I thought you were referring to the storm in general. Like, the models are coming to the consensus that it is going to be a large coverage area.

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Zeus

Zeus

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I'm sure you must be out to troll and insult me... that's all well and good - but it doesn't work if I don't know what katodog really means?

 

Just a lighthearted joke, actually. My humble apologies if actual injury occurred; certainly not intentional.

 

katodog is a special poster who often speaks of his visions of future storms to come... the details are hazy and yet certain elements are crystal clear. Apparently frequenting Off Topic once more these days.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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My bad, I thought you were referring to the storm in general. Like, the models are coming to the consensus that it is going to be a large coverage area.

 

No, a more disengaged solution with less interaction of the rockies energy would produce a flatter system with less coverage in precip and intensity.

 

 

The larger scale synoptic features are hinted on all guidance but the exact timing of them is still a bit off. This is why focusing on the ensembles is still better than these OP runs. But a more phased solution is going to produce a very large storm. (like what today's Euro shows)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah but it was important..at least in my eyes..to see them come south and colder. We didn't want to see them hold steady or move more amped

 

 

There really isn't any room for this to move over liek BUF or something in a phased solution...so moving NW really isn't my concern. I do think it could track plenty close though...enough for ptype issues.

 

We'll prob have to play with fire in a phased storm, but its a much higher ceiling for snowfall than a strung out sublimation delight that drops 4 inches of sand.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Yes I am well aware of the H5 support and the overall nuking this run would give, however it remains to be seen if it would be as fully phased and developed as the Euro would indicate. I only have access to the op run and not the ensembles, so I can't look at what they have. Anyway I suppose I am betting the streak quite a bit, but it is hard not to this year. Local terrain impacts do play a large role here as I am finding out, so shadowing is legitimate concern.

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