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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Wes answered this question in the ma forum earlier this year. The control run is the only ensemble with identical initial conditions as the op run but at the standard lower resolution as the other members. The usefulness is when the op and control show large differences in the medium range. It's a clue that the higher res may be overdoing something.

Yes I quoted directly from the European site.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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At least on the 12z run, the ECMWF ensemble mean and OP run were matching much closer than before...as well as being in the middle of most of the 51 members

 

Mar7_12z_Euroensembles.png

 

 

 

 

This maybe lends a little bit more conifdence...but the fact its still a 132 hour panel screams to keep things tempered.

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DomNH

DomNH

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ame="weathafella" post="2863766" timestamp="1394234763"]

Without looking it up, the ensemble control is akin to a lower resution of the op run. I don't recall if the parameters or physics are changed.

Yeah I think the ensemble control is run with the OP's intial conditions but at ensemble resolution.

 

And it was answered 3 posts above, late to the party.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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At this point, You just follow the ensemble trends to see if we get better clustering to some common ground wether it be right or left

 

 

The ensemble means of all 3 of the GEFS, GGEM, and Euro are actually really close. The spread is the highest by far on the GEFS....the GGEM and ECMWF ensembles are actually reasonably clustered for this time frame. The disaster on the OP GGEM doesn't seme to be reflected on the ensembles.

 

This is still pretty tedious obviously given the timeframe, but at least having the 3 different ensemble means pretty close with two of the groups relatively well clustered is about all you can ask for at this point.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Wes answered this question in the ma forum earlier this year. The control run is the only ensemble with identical initial conditions as the op run but at the standard lower resolution as the other members. The usefulness is when the op and control show large differences in the medium range. It's a clue that the higher res may be overdoing something.

Thanks Bob. I was in the ballpark anyways.

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