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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Well we certainly hope your gut is wrong then. As long as the PV is there I don't see how this can be  a warm rainer.

 

At least we have a shot at a not so usual icestorm I suppose if it wouldn't be snow. Look at what a marginal high did in NC in Morch today

 

Depends on axis and strength of PNA ridge and the PV as well. The PV is definitely farther northeast than it's been.... it could turn into a warm rainer though I wouldn't bet on it. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Possible. I hope not... us south of the Pike could have a brutally boring end to winter after a very fun 3 weeks of February.

lol everyone is in the same boat...this will get brutal on the forum as it comes closer because you can tell a lot of folks want this to work out as best as possible for their backyard. It's been a cold rather boring two weeks for all...people are antsy.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I agree as well with Will. I probably wouldn't worry if I were dendrite to Dryslot.

 

 

I think a more amped up solution would be better for 90% of the posters here anyway...maybe not as amped as the 00z Euro ensmeble mean, but something a bit less than that. It would be a much higher QPF event for the region, and even if there is taint, probably some good snows anyway with sleet/ZR in the mix...it would be cold in the low levels with that sfc high position.

 

 

You very well might get more snow even dealing with sleet issues than if you hope for a strung out system to give you 5" of sublimation delight.

 

 

What we don't want is almsot no interaction and a fropa like the GGEM...it actually cuts a clipper to our northwest and torches all of NE and then redevelops a low along the front which is too late for most of us.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

lol everyone is in the same boat...this will get brutal on the forum as it comes closer because you can tell a lot of folks want this to work out as best as possible for their backyard. It's been a cold rather boring two weeks for all...people are antsy.

 

LOL My prediction is a Southern NH/VT and Interior MA jackpot with a moderate event up here that will come in at 50-75% of what BTV forecasts due to shadowing ;)  In all seriousness though, the track remains highly uncertain. Run to run consistency in the Euro hasn't been there, except for the fact that a storm is there. The GFS has a weaker and less phased system farther SE. I don't think we are any closer to an answer than yesterday so far.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I think a more amped up solution would be better for 90% of the posters here anyway...

You very well might get more snow even dealing with sleet issues than if you hope for a strung out system to give you 5" of sublimation delight..

Yeah just look at Valentine's Day this year...everyone was saying jackpot up here but you guys in ORH and BDL got more snow than we did in that one, even though you mixed.

I had 8-10" and I think you guys had a foot or something.

I would gladly sign up for 10" of snow plus sleet and mix rather than have to play the NW flank worry game haha.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah just look at Valentine's Day this year...everyone was saying jackpot up here but you guys in ORH and BDL got more snow than we did in that one, even though you mixed.

I had 8-10" and I think you guys had a foot or something.

 

 

Yep, 13" in ORH with about half an inch of sleet on that Thursday night...with a little ZR mixed in. Never hit freezing in that one. It was the biggest storm of the season here. I know the immediate coast got screwed in that one, but this upcoming setup would actually have a much more northerly component to the wind than that one did since that one had the retreating Nova Scotia high.

 

Sometimes the tainters can produce very well. Hell, I think back to St. Patty's day in 2007...that was a sleet tainter and was still a very good event. Another 13" total in that one I had with a bunch of sleet in there. Never sniffed freezing. I think you guys did very well up in VT during that...but still a very good storm. It was Boston's biggest storm of that season too with over 8 inches at Logan and 10"+ just away from the water.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I think a more amped up solution would be better for 90% of the posters here anyway...maybe not as amped as the 00z Euro ensmeble mean, but something a bit less than that. It would be a much higher QPF event for the region, and even if there is taint, probably some good snows anyway with sleet/ZR in the mix...it would be cold in the low levels with that sfc high position.

You very well might get more snow even dealing with sleet issues than if you hope for a strung out system to give you 5" of sublimation delight.

What we don't want is almsot no interaction and a fropa like the GGEM...it actually cuts a clipper to our northwest and torches all of NE and then redevelops a low along the front which is too late for most of us.

I wouldn't mind a big hit of snow and even a mix. Lock it up because we know fluff will be nuked by the March sun.

This is probably a weenie comment, but heck all we are doing is discussing.....so...my gut says something maybe near ACK. Almost like what the EC ensembles had 00z yesterday. Just a very casual "first guess."

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

The SREFs went through an upgrade a year or two ago that really has made them struggle in a lot of our winter setups. Unfortunately that gives us oneless reliable piece of guidance in the "inside of 60 hour" range.

There was a period in about 2000-2011 when they really were performing well after an upgrade in 2007-2008 or somewhere thereabouts.

I wouldn't mind a big hit of snow and even a mix. Lock it up because we know fluff will be nuked by the March sun.

This is probably a weenie comment, but heck all we are doing is discussing.....so...my gut says something maybe near ACK. Almost like what the EC ensembles had 00z yesterday. Just a very casual "first guess."

My bbfs at hpc agree with you scott

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

If we are doing the "gut" thing, I'd go with MoneyPit to Dryslot axis....only because the big negative tilters have been hard to come by up here. Maybe we could get something like those previous ECM solutions in NVT/NNY, but my gut says the PV could still over-power it enough to shunt it east too quickly.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Remember also ... as storms like the "Boxing day blizzard" having demonstrated, sometimes they can disappear almost entirely, only to thunder back in the shorter terms.  

 

Just another in a myriad of examples why these individual model runs are almost entirely useless for D6/7.  They only get much merit at all if and when they fit in with large scale pattern notice.  

 

Said notice:  The MJO is verifying, nicely.  It's correlation on the flow is heavily scienced.  The +PNA/+PNAP pattern expression is thus highly supported, so any solution that migrates toward more amplitude should be weighted.  That's just logic; not really debatable. It's not forecasting a historic bomb, no -- but, sufficed it is to say, if one is in this game to ferret out and/or experience bigger events, these foresaid factors are certainly not hurting your cause.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Quite gfs esque.

 

Really? I thought just the opposite. Looks like the Euro is going to be much deeper and phased.

 

The GFS is almost all northern stream driven without much phasing. The Euro wants to get everything going earlier and deeper thanks to some early phasing. 

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