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March Medium-Long Range Discotheque


stormtracker

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Bastardi on Weatherbell Premium honking about the pattern and strong signal for a strong winter storm late next week.  Must be a membership drive in progress.   :rolleyes:  

 

 

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 6h

Euro cranking it up again.. weekend "warmup" followed by major winter storm threat next week..target area a bit further north than yesterday

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Bastardi on Weatherbell Premium honking about the pattern and strong signal for a strong winter storm late next week.  Must be a membership drive in progress.   :rolleyes:  

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6h

Euro cranking it up again.. weekend "warmup" followed by major winter storm threat next week..target area a bit further north than yesterday

yes he's targeting northern md and penn a

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Bastardi on Weatherbell Premium honking about the pattern and strong signal for a strong winter storm late next week.  Must be a membership drive in progress.   :rolleyes:  

 

 

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 6h

Euro cranking it up again.. weekend "warmup" followed by major winter storm threat next week..target area a bit further north than yesterday

 

Well... the GFS and EURO had something for that time period... so...

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A nice ridge "tag-team" from PNA domain into western NAO domain on the heels of another PV-displacement into Quebec. The models are seeing a pretty solid piece of energy on the backside of the PV, that for all we know will trend stronger (it's located over the Hudson Bay this run). Yes, the second wave and final wave, before the PNA ridge goes up, in the southern stream makes more sense to me than the first one for being the potential storm.

Gee, an inland runner at this range....where have I seen that before?!?

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A nice ridge "tag-team" from PNA domain into western NAO domain on the heels of another PV-displacement into Quebec. The models are seeing a pretty solid piece of energy on the backside of the PV, that for all we know will trend stronger (it's located over the Hudson Bay this run). Yes, the second wave and final wave, before the PNA ridge goes up, in the southern stream makes more sense to me than the first one for being the potential storm.

Gee, an inland runner at this range....where have I seen that before?!?

Lol. I was just going to say that the Euro had the March 2-3 storm as a warm storm for a few runs before it turned on a dime 3-4 days before the storm. Plenty of time and moving parts before we hit next week.

MDstorm

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12z EPS has a storm in the Day 8-10 means... but it looks like that the EPS has a mixture of some members who want to key on the first s/w and some who key on the 2nd one... Bob/Ian/whoever has access to the full EPS model suite, is that right?

Lot's of spread on how it evolves. The mslp panels look like they dive the low down from dakaotas to tn valley and off of NC. But the spread shows any track (that makes or breaks us) is possible. The majority of the members track it below us. 850 line moves from the MD to well south of us from 192-204. Less than half the members have a snow solution and very few show anything decent.

All in all the storm (if there is one) doesn't really have much of a resolution. Looking back historically we don't do all that well with a track like this late in the season. Front side waa stuff can be too warm and then we have to hope for crashing temps/heights as it gets below us. I'm not impressed with the setup. If the vort dives close to the gulf coast then we're looking at something more promising.

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With the current setup in Canada I would not assume any storm outside 48 hours is rain. I don't care what models show right now with this pattern I an still way more worries about suppression then rain with the day 10 threat. Of course my suppression (and depression) is your snow.

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