Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 There's one simple difference that not only affects winter storm outcome early next week but also temperatures in general after...Euro holds pv into western Canada. If that occurs, it will basically taint all of next week for wintry weather. Last night's ensemble mean definitely flattens the western canada lobe so it's not a driver of heights down the line by monday. It's a fly in the ointment that needs careful attention for sure though. The mean does show it as a prominent feature for a couple days. Hopefully the signal on today's ens run doesn't strengthen the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So, it sounds like the Euro perhaps has one consolidated low as opposed to the two waves the GFS just advertised? Or is it just faster with the two waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 JMA--not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So, it sounds like the Euro perhaps has one consolidated low as opposed to the two waves the GFS just advertised? Or is it just faster with the two waves? It has two waves, but both are further north because instead of the PV location, as HM said. The GFS and GGEm have the PV in eastern Canada thus pressing the front south that both waves ride along. The euro op takes the dominant piece of the PV into western Canada and allows the flow ahead of it into the east to back more and the front ends up farther north. I suspect its just a bad run, its a pretty major issue for all the other guidance, as well as its own ensembles to miss. EPS coming out soon will be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro likes to be too amped. Or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 My first impression of the EPS is that they haven't changed much; but, there is likely a major disagreement. The mean did trend cooler than last run over western Canada. The GFS family is not holding anything back while Euro sends it there for days. With the blocking / N. Pac setup, don't expect this to be resolved well. A cluster analysis would probably be beneficial here and how many EPS members hold back as long as op and how many send it out faster like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This has the feel of 09-10 where an early march system showed promise-- didn't materialize and basically snow season was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This has the feel of 09-10 where an early march system showed promise-- didn't materialize and basically snow season was over. Well, I felt satisfied that year Huff; this year, not as much though definitely better than the last 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This has the feel of 09-10 where an early march system showed promise-- didn't materialize and basically snow season was over. i think it was late feb but yea...09-10 sucked after our third HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's the storm where NYC pulled off 20 inches somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro day 8-9 storm would be great if it was cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 the euro day 8-9 storm would be great if it was cold enough you'll be happy to know the euro 850 zero line is down by the va/nc border the whole time. Precip panels are way delayed so I have no idea if there is a storm signal or not. ens seem to support the op for Monday. slp running the apps and probably overhead. 850's not all that great. eta: mslp anomaly does show a low tracking up off the coast d8-9. Good bit of spread but it's there nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So more zr/sleet? Or more rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 you'll be happy to know the euro 850 zero line is down by the va/nc border the whole time. Precip panels are way delayed so I have no idea if there is a storm signal or not. ens seem to support the op for Monday. slp running the apps and probably overhead. 850's not all that great. eta: mslp anomaly does show a low tracking up off the coast d8-9. Good bit of spread but it's there nonetheless. wxbell snowfall map show pa get blasted and we get very little!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 D8-9 storm is there. Max precip is east of the op. More of an offshore track. Surface and 850's way colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 you'll be happy to know the euro 850 zero line is down by the va/nc border the whole time. Precip panels are way delayed so I have no idea if there is a storm signal or not. ens seem to support the op for Monday. slp running the apps and probably overhead. 850's not all that great. eta: mslp anomaly does show a low tracking up off the coast d8-9. Good bit of spread but it's there nonetheless. I agree. Ens does not look good for Monday. However, the end of next week is much more promising on the ens than on the op. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 wxbell snowfall map show pa get blasted and we get very little!! ? ensemble mean doesn't have a snow map. Control run does but using that for long range is a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 ? ensemble mean doesn't have a snow map. Control run does but using that for long range is a bad idea. I,m just saying the snowfall total map shows very little. 850 line is in upstate NY. For the op run. Caveat -as far as I can tell. I maybe wrong!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Normally I would be on the way out with this Euro run plus the EPS but HM said it will be difficult to resolve so I am still all in. Ian want to join me?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 ? ensemble mean doesn't have a snow map. Control run does but using that for long range is a bad idea.The Euro ENS mean shows 2-4" for MA, it was definitely south of the Op. PHL is 4-6" and LGA is 6-8", this is through day 6.Edit: at 120-126 the 850/32F line is running through Frederick, at 132 it drops right over the city and after that much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 wxbell snowfall map show pa get blasted and we get very little!!those things are awful. I'm in central pa and even here if u look at the temp profiles its almost all rain or ice with only a little qpf with all levels below 32 yet those maps show 10" of snow. They are lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 D8-9 storm is there. Max precip is east of the op. More of an offshore track. Surface and 850's way colder than the op. thats the Ji storm...maybe our last chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Can we make a separate thread for the march 2nd-4th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Can we make a separate thread for the march 2nd-4th storm? Nooooooooooo! (well, not yet anyhow, far too much uncertainty.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 awful GFS run...this is good...my expectations are so low right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 awful GFS run...this is good...my expectations are so low right now GFS has changed to snow before 7PM at BWI on GFS don't know how much more qpf falls after that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS has changed to snow before 7PM at BWI on GFSdon't know how much more qpf falls after that yet English please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 awful GFS run...this is good...my expectations are so low right now Still frozen....better than euro warm rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 I didn't think the GFS was that bad actually. I'm speaking relative to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Placement of HP looks good. It's all about how far that Artic Boundry can push south. Might b a lot of sleet. Who really knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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