Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO is a good hit for everyone south of I-80 from the Ohio border to Delaware River. Off the ledge weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro did move south has 6" plus up to 1/3 southern tier and good snows through C PA what do you mean by good snows? I don't consider 3-6" good if just 12 hours ago guidance showed 12+ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro similar to gfs in swpa? Does the Euro run still leave you in good shape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO is a good hit for everyone south of I-80 from the Ohio border to Delaware River. Off the ledge weenies! Looks great for the southern tier. Doesn't take a met degree to see that guidance is favoring a colder/south soln. Dynamic ratio map for the 12z EURO has 12-15" from PIT to LNS by 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Does the Euro run still leave you in good shape?[/quote I got my answer. It still sounded good, but had someone in my thread make it sound like a total bust. 12-15 is fine with me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks great for the southern tier. Doesn't take a met degree to see that guidance is favoring a colder/south soln. Dynamic ratio map for the 12z EURO has 12-15" from PIT to LNS by 78 hours Yes, if I'm north of Route 6 then I'd be a bit anxious, but otherwise we are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 what do you mean by good snows? I don't consider 3-6" good if just 12 hours ago guidance showed 12+ potential. Where are you located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, if I'm north of Route 6 then I'd be a bit anxious, but otherwise we are great. That's awfully far north...I'd say 80 north should be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like it cut our totals here in State College from ~1.1" on the 00z down to ~0.55" on the 12z Euro, so roughly in half. That change sucks for up here, but I'll still be happy with a 6" snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's awfully far north...I'd say 80 north should be concerned.this isn't locked in yet so everyone should be. I still feel like the last 24 hours these tend to bleed north a bit so as long as this doesn't trend any further south then it is now central pa should be ok. My concern would be if the energy splits and we get the insignificant first wave but then the second gets supressed as the front sags south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like it cut our totals here in State College from ~1.1" on the 00z down to ~0.55" on the 12z Euro, so roughly in half. I'm not. It's march. We have had a ton of moderate snows here. At this point I either want a hecs 12"+ or warm. That change sucks for up here, but I'll still be happy with a 6" snow event. . Ehh I've seen a ton of 4-8" snows this year at this point I want 12+ or spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 this isn't locked in yet so everyone should be. I still feel like the last 24 hours these tend to bleed north a bit so as long as this doesn't trend any further south then it is now central pa should be ok. My concern would be if the energy splits and we get the insignificant first wave but then the second gets supressed as the front sags south. Yep, that has always been my concern...even for the LSV. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can someone post a snowfall map from the Euro that was created (I think) by EuroWx and was posted on here yesterday afternoon?, and not by WxCaster or IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1714Z FRI FEB 28 2014A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT1200Z SAT MAR 01 2014 AND EXTEND THROUGH 0000Z TUE MAR 042014. THE FOLLOWING NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THISCWD...SOUTHERN/EASTERN/CENTRAL. NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSOPARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OFWEATHER DATA. ALL SCHEDULED SOFTWARE/HARDWARE/NETWORKCHANGES FOR THE IMPACTED OFFICES WILL BE POSTPONED UNTILTHE CWD HAS ENDED. ANY EMERGENCY CHANGES WILL BE EVALUATEDAND APPROVED BY THE LOCAL/REGIONAL MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.NWS OFFICES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR REGIONAL OFFICES FORFURTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From the social media... Only leaving this up for a little while. (Save it) Where does this come from? And how does it interpret ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 what do you mean by good snows? I don't consider 3-6" good if just 12 hours ago guidance showed 12+ potential. It is really just that what do you consider good snows. I consider 6 plus for the southern 1/3 good snows. If you don't thats fine it is all what you think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro similar to gfs in swpa? Probably about as good or a bit better than the GFS. Heavier precip arrives in western PA faster on the Euro. There's less of Pittsburgh being on the fine edge of the heavier precip on the Euro with Pit within the 0.25"-0.50" range and the .1-.25" going well up into NW PA at hour 60. EURO is a good hit for everyone south of I-80 from the Ohio border to Delaware River. Off the ledge weenies! I dunno why everyone's worried, except for maybe the more northern tier folks. I don't personally think the Euro really made all that monumental of a shift south overall. Yea.. it did shift a bit down from it's 0z run. But what I'm seeing is it kind of has two distinct ripples of low pressure that run the boundary to the GFS's one, the first of which sending a slug of heavier precip across most of PA bringing precip in a bit faster and further north than the GFS and a second ripple of low pressure that focuses more on southern PA and south of the border. It kinda seems to limit precip in a way, coverage of heavy precip is not as expansive. Otherwise... with about 2.5-3 days to go yet, I'm only going to go as far as to acknowledge that this colder and further south leaning trend should probably eliminate or significantly reduce the threat/duration of mixed precip in the southern tier. The finer details as to where this heavy snow swath ends up are still very much up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is really just that what do you consider good snows. I consider 6 plus for the southern 1/3 good snows. If you don't thats fine it is all what you think it is. It's March. 1" of snow is good to me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 MAG, I don't think it's the 12z suite verbatim we're concerned about, but it's a trend taking hold. Just my amateur $0.02...if we see a counter-north trend tomorrow...it would start at 12z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Probably about as good or a bit better than the GFS. Heavier precip arrives in western PA faster on the Euro. There's less of Pittsburgh being on the fine edge of the heavier precip on the Euro with Pit within the 0.25"-0.50" range and the .1-.25" going well up into NW PA at hour 60. I dunno why everyone's worried, except for maybe the more northern tier folks. I don't personally think the Euro really made all that monumental of a shift south overall. Yea.. it did shift a bit down from it's 0z run. But what I'm seeing is it kind of has two distinct ripples of low pressure that run the boundary to the GFS's one, the first of which sending a slug of heavier precip across most of PA bringing precip in a bit faster and further north than the GFS and a second ripple of low pressure that focuses more on southern PA and south of the border. It kinda seems to limit precip in a way, coverage of heavy precip is not as expansive. Otherwise... with about 2.5-3 days to go yet, I'm only going to go as far as to acknowledge that this colder and further south leaning trend should probably eliminate or significantly reduce the threat/duration of mixed precip in the southern tier. The finer details as to where this heavy snow swath ends up are still very much up in the air. yeah, i'm startin to think people got their underwear on to tight, holy ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Probably about as good or a bit better than the GFS. Heavier precip arrives in western PA faster on the Euro. There's less of Pittsburgh being on the fine edge of the heavier precip on the Euro with Pit within the 0.25"-0.50" range and the .1-.25" going well up into NW PA at hour 60. I dunno why everyone's worried, except for maybe the more northern tier folks. I don't personally think the Euro really made all that monumental of a shift south overall. Yea.. it did shift a bit down from it's 0z run. But what I'm seeing is it kind of has two distinct ripples of low pressure that run the boundary to the GFS's one, the first of which sending a slug of heavier precip across most of PA bringing precip in a bit faster and further north than the GFS and a second ripple of low pressure that focuses more on southern PA and south of the border. It kinda seems to limit precip in a way, coverage of heavy precip is not as expansive. Otherwise... with about 2.5-3 days to go yet, I'm only going to go as far as to acknowledge that this colder and further south leaning trend should probably eliminate or significantly reduce the threat/duration of mixed precip in the southern tier. The finer details as to where this heavy snow swath ends up are still very much up in the air. Great Post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's March. 1" of snow is good to me. lol That is so true....good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is paranoia run amock. This is a text message that a penndot employee sent his wife. I received the fwd. FWD: Penndot worried big storm starts tomorrow afternoon snow thrru tuesday evening 24to 28 with lots of ice roads closed power outages snow drifts 20 feet high people stranded told to pack our bags might not be home till wensday night if lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 In my opinion I think a shift south was good. I feel there will be a correction N. This to me all but closes the door of any pingers North of 22. Not saying south of there is going to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From the social media... Only leaving this up for a little while. (Save it) Hmm... not exactly sure how that happens. ~10" with less than 0.6" (estimated) qpf up here in State College? I guess it would be decent ratio stuff, but almost 20:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hmm... not exactly sure how that happens. ~10" with less than 0.6" (estimated) qpf up here in State College? I guess it would be decent ratio stuff, but almost 20:1? Seeing as euro has 850's up your way around -15 and surface temps around 15. Ya 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If no one objects, I am going to start a new thread after the 18z model suite. We would be 48 hours from the event starting midnight and probably on the outside edge of watch territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Let Jamie start it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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