Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not bad overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 while waiting for Euro... had to do a double take but just realized Harrisburg's record low for March 1 is 7 degrees... that one is in trouble tomorrow morning Based on my records so far I have DJF for Harrisburg as 16th coldest on record without today's data and 11th coldest JF Have not looked through any March data yet but so far I have yet to find a streak of more than 4 days (Feb 28, 29, March 1, 2, 1980) with temps at or below 32 degrees after the 24th of February... today makes #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who knows what model to trust. That last storm GFS was out to lunch. And the Euro was locked on. Is the GFS on this storm?? Only time will tell.....be interesting to see what the Euro is showing coming up. It has been kind of discouraging finding the models with such different solutions this winter. If we wouldn't get anymore snow this season it still has been an awesome winter!!! Edit: Ha!!! PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Gotta agree with you there, pa watch. A bit above average and several 5 plus inch events. We did well with how we add up those moderate snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not bad overall... WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif Where do I sign for this? Be curious to see if the Euro sticks to it's guns shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS ensembles do seem to still like a bit further north than the operational, and still almost just as many that are just like the 06z GFS: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who knows what model to trust. That last storm GFS was out to lunch. And the Euro was locked on. Is the GFS on this storm?? Only time will tell.....be interesting to see what the Euro is showing coming up. It has been kind of discouraging finding the models with such different solutions this winter. If we don't get anymore snow this season it still has been an awesome winter!!! I wonder if this really shows how phasing issues with GFS cause it to perform much more poorly in phasing events than when a system without a huge phase comes along. Also wondering if the cold bias of that model is why the southward jump in allowing the boundary to set up further south by having the cold air push south faster than the warm air advection may ultimately allow. On the other hand it could still end up right with this scenario. One problem I have with model output being presented to the public is that the general public just doesnt understand that they are only guidance and never show perfect predictions. Even a locked on Euro on an event doesnt have all the details correct. Heard one person say this morning that Al Roker presented the GFS and Euro model runs... ok not a big deal... but then this person said because those models showed two different totals we will either see one foot or two feet depending on which is right... ugh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not bad overall... WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=232.94,37.16,1622 this is pretty cool... click on "earth" in bottom left corner and you can change a few settings for other layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd rather a south shift now then north. If it goes north inside 72 hours your toast but often it will shift back north in the last 24-36 hours. As long as it doesn't shift far being on the northern edge 60 hours out is ok but if it starts shifting well south then I'm worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Where's voyager?? Lol. I'm here and DON'T like seeing that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wonder if this really shows how phasing issues with GFS cause it to perform much more poorly in phasing events than when a system without a huge phase comes along. Also wondering if the cold bias of that model is why the southward jump in allowing the boundary to set up further south by having the cold air push south faster than the warm air advection may ultimately allow. On the other hand it could still end up right with this scenario. One problem I have with model output being presented to the public is that the general public just doesnt understand that they are only guidance and never show perfect predictions. Even a locked on Euro on an event doesnt have all the details correct. Heard one person say this morning that Al Roker presented the GFS and Euro model runs... ok not a big deal... but then this person said because those models showed two different totals we will either see one foot or two feet depending on which is right... ugh loldjr5001 Good post!!I agree no model is totally correct. That is why they use a blend of models to try and come up with a finial solution. Once again thanks to everyone for sharing their thoughts on this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Stronger high and front pressing south. Looks like it might be like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is going way south this run... Never thought I'd say this, but kind of looks like the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Euro is full on lets troll Zak mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO colder, further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is looking mighty good from my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ya significantly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO is a DC crush-job now... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro is going way south this run... Never thought I'd say this, but kind of looks like the CMC It's not that bad. lol. We will get over 6" in the southern tier and there is no random rain from a wave that goes over pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ugh, don't like hearing this, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro still got precip into northern Penn better than the 12z GFS did and a still good event for central and southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ugh, don't like hearing this, guys. it looks to me as if it is initialized with the high over northwest canada further south than current surface analysis indicates fwiw... GFS same way... anyone else seeing same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's not that bad. lol. We will get over 6" in the southern tier and there is no random rain from a wave that goes over pa. EDIT: Meant to say the old Canadian solutions. PV really presses down on this run. Still drops .75-1" Ratios might actually be better than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ugh, don't like hearing this, guys. To be excepted. When is there ever a all pa bullseye. This is why you don't put out forecast maps with numbers on it till inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man, this went south faster than USA Hockey did in Sochi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Between the 12z OP GFS, 12z GEFS and now 12z EURO...there definitely a trend for a southern colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro did move south has 6" plus up to 1/3 southern tier and good snows through C PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The euro looks fine to me, good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro similar to gfs in swpa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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