psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 MAG, I don't think it's the 12z suite verbatim we're concerned about, but it's a trend taking hold. Just my amateur $0.02...if we see a counter-north trend tomorrow...it would start at 12z as well. this x 10000 but I do believe as long as we are on the northern edge of the good precip and not outside the precip totally going into the last 36 hours we will end up ok. But keep in mind the second wave I think will end up being the big show so if you take out the first wave we really are on the northern fringe. I remember pd2 trended south about this time as it starting splitting energy between the two waves before coming north again the last 36 hours as it figured out wave 2 was the big dog. .I expect a similar thing here. Our only bad solution is if the waves split evenly and one goes north and second south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is paranoia run amock. This is a text message that a penndot employee sent his wife. I received the fwd. FWD: Penndot worried big storm starts tomorrow afternoon snow thrru tuesday evening 24to 28 with lots of ice roads closed power outages snow drifts 20 feet high people stranded told to pack our bags might not be home till wensday night if lucky you always make me laugh with your humor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 wow, WSW up already for western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man HM doesn't even know what a nightmare forecast best as other said to WAIT until closer to the event to throw out snow totals. Media Hype is already unreal. from HM in the MA forum: To be honest, I'm not sure which way we shift tomorrow. If eastern Canada keeps trending more assertive, before you know it, this thing is suppressed (and to be honest I never thought that was a possibility based on how strong this Pacific wave is). If the Pacific wave can remain stronger, it is possible it comes back north and/or if Quebec influence reduces. Nightmare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The "trend"? If were only talking about the GFS/Euro here, the euro 12z yesterday trende south. Then the 00z trended north and then trended south again at 12z Meanwhile, the GFS trended northward at 00z and 06z (so much so that some people here were talking about "sleet" up to I-80). Then came much further south at 12z. While I don't like the 12z runs from a snow loving perspective, it appears to me that the only "trend" on these models are to swing wildly one direction or the other Factoring in the southern camp of the NAM/GGEM/Ukmet on the other hand is more worrisome, but were going to see such variations for probably the next 3-4 runs at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I know we still have some runs yet and nothing is etched in stone. But anytime on a model run you go from over 8" snow down to 2.5" of snow that is a concern! Granted not time to panic or jump off the bridge. But it is a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I know we still have some runs yet and nothing is etched in stone. But anytime on a model run you go from over 8" snow down to 2.5" of snow that is a concern! Granted not time to panic or jump off the bridge. But it is a concern. the system is still over the ocean and we are assuming the models are handling a sub 970mb system coming on shore and interacting with a 1040+ mb high moving into the northern plains... that is why I am not panicking yet... over or under projecting strengths over next 24-36 hours can lead to huge differences in how this plays out Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Now after that comedy show...back to our regularly scheduled programming 18z NAM running OH that could also be a comedy show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles anyone? Hate to crash the bashing party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Probably about as good or a bit better than the GFS. Heavier precip arrives in western PA faster on the Euro. There's less of Pittsburgh being on the fine edge of the heavier precip on the Euro with Pit within the 0.25"-0.50" range and the .1-.25" going well up into NW PA at hour 60. I dunno why everyone's worried, except for maybe the more northern tier folks. I don't personally think the Euro really made all that monumental of a shift south overall. Yea.. it did shift a bit down from it's 0z run. But what I'm seeing is it kind of has two distinct ripples of low pressure that run the boundary to the GFS's one, the first of which sending a slug of heavier precip across most of PA bringing precip in a bit faster and further north than the GFS and a second ripple of low pressure that focuses more on southern PA and south of the border. It kinda seems to limit precip in a way, coverage of heavy precip is not as expansive. Otherwise... with about 2.5-3 days to go yet, I'm only going to go as far as to acknowledge that this colder and further south leaning trend should probably eliminate or significantly reduce the threat/duration of mixed precip in the southern tier. The finer details as to where this heavy snow swath ends up are still very much up in the air. Agree-Enjoy reading your expert commentary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM to me looks to becoming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM to me looks to becoming north #1 the nam sucks, #2 only out to 36 and #3 nam sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles anyone? Hate to crash the bashing party... with a quick look it appears south like the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From NWS Pitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Why does it all seem like the models agree between 84-120 then inside 72 all goes to hell. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 . LMFAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 the system is still over the ocean and we are assuming the models are handling a sub 970mb system coming on shore and interacting with a 1040+ mb high moving into the northern plains... that is why I am not panicking yet... over or under projecting strengths over next 24-36 hours can lead to huge differences in how this plays out Sunday/MondayI realize these model wiggles are not over by any stretch. A very good point about the system not even on shore yet!Thanks for the reply! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 with a quick look it appears south like the operational Thank you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From NWS Pitt. lol love that post!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 #1 the nam sucks, #2 only out to 36 and #3 nam sucks.Comedy show it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM at hr 48 has 850 line near NY board while GFS and Euro as along MD line. I hate these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol, Zach it's useless man. I wouldn't even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I realize these model wiggles are not over by any stretch. A very good point about the system not even on shore yet! Thanks for the reply! I think that is too why we are seeing the models act a little chaotic right now since they are trying to project changes in both the system over the ocean and the high over northwest Canada over a short term period here in the next 12-24 hours so anything off in that time frame will cause differences and shifts for our main event from run to run at least until this energy makes landfall... latest surface analysis has the system over the ocean as a 976mb low and high over northwest canada at 1048... both quite strong... both possibly too strong (especially ocean feature) for models to get a good grip on rate of increasing or decreasing pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol, Zach it's useless man. I wouldn't even look at it. GGEM does the same thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seriously were are the darts? We may as well throw darts at a dart board and guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ah yes here we go. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ah yes here we go. lol LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHIS WEEKENDARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND DRAPING SOUTH ACROSS THEOHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUN AND MON~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 2/3 12Z GFS...1/3 12Z UKMET BLENDCONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man the board is slow right now....weenie capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM does the same thing though. nam or not that is our screwed scenario. We want wave 1 weak and wave 2 dominant. If wave one is stronger it will go north but also drive the front south behind it and lead to a weaker supressed wave 2. It's a loss all around. Any trend towards that is bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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