Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good post Mallow. Although I'd hope we get more than 2.5 inches lol. I hope so, too. If the Euro hasn't moved south at all, or the operational GFS is a southern outlier compared to its ensembles, I could definitely be convinced that I'm wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The main point is that this is the exact scenario I and others were sort of expecting all along. That is, that the end result would tend towards the southern models (UKMET/Canadian) and away from the northern ones (GFS/Euro). I've been fairly consistent with this--note my posts before the 12z GFS about the UKMET/Canadian being good models, and that they shouldn't be discounted. That all being said, I would expect the GFS to remain south for the next several runs and even drift further south, before inching back north a touch. So my best guess is that where the 12z GFS shows the storm now is pretty much right where it'll end up being. Which isn't bad, I'll definitely take the ~6" of snow! Doesn't it bother you, though, that the GFS has been flopping around this much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Agreed!! That damn Accuwx 12-18" map this morning had me a little excited... coming back down to Earth now Still feel like the mets we have posting here are better than anyone who works at Accu... their entire website basically just uses the latest GFS as a forecast, every time. It had me going too skier, as much as I hate to admit lol. Now heads back out of the clouds and just going to follow this casually. No reason to live run to run for the difference of 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That is an awesome looking storm. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Doesn't it bother you, though, that the GFS has been flopping around this much? Of course (though it's really only been flopping around recently). But it also bothers me that the Canadian/UKMET have been consistent. And on the other hand, it encourages me that the Euro has been so consistent. It's an interesting storm... the models keyed in on the idea of a storm more than 7 days out, and have fallen into two camps pretty much ever since. And the camps are not really what I'm used to seeing, with the GFS (previously) being in the same camp as the Euro, and the Canadian/UKMET in agreement. As always, there's a good amount of guesswork, and I'm just going by gut so far. So I'm definitely not resigned to the idea that south is definitely right... it's just a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The latest outputs still have timing Sunday night late through Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes Sunday night *late* through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It had me going too skier, as much as I hate to admit lol. Now heads back out of the clouds and just going to follow this casually. No reason to live run to run for the difference of 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 lol. Could this be south? Sure. But right now you're calling heads on a coin flip, and you can't say for sure that this is between 2-4 and 3-6. You've cultivated an image here that's not exactly the best. This stuff is why. Of course (though it's really only been flopping around recently). But it also bothers me that the Canadian/UKMET have been consistent. And on the other hand, it encourages me that the Euro has been so consistent. It's an interesting storm... the models keyed in on the idea of a storm more than 7 days out, and have fallen into two camps pretty much ever since. And the camps are not really what I'm used to seeing, with the GFS (previously) being in the same camp as the Euro, and the Canadian/UKMET in agreement. As always, there's a good amount of guesswork, and I'm just going by gut so far. So I'm definitely not resigned to the idea that south is definitely right... it's just a feeling. Right...I think this is a reasonable approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain. And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain. And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else. I say there is near a 0% chance of getting 1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain. And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else. Won't we all. I know I will. So when does the CMC and UKMET come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I say there is near a 0% chance of getting 1" of rain. He said the likely outcome is in between...point being it might end up being congrats Albany or DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GGEM basically doesn't have any storm. Think it is smoking some crack on this one. NAGVEM a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Won't we all. I know I will. So when does the CMC and UKMET come out? GGEM is out. Shows nothing basically. Rain south for sunday afternoon and and some snow NW pa. Then round 2 barely hits anyone. Wave two doesn't even barely exist. Think model is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I say there is near a 0% chance of getting 1" of rain. Nah, if a drastic north shift happens at the last minute, the LSV could get drenched on Monday. Very unlikely IMO, but not 0% chance. The 6z GFS was a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 UKMET similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM is adament no storm or very little. This model has been consistent showing hardly nothing for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nah, if a drastic north shift happens at the last minute, the LSV could get drenched on Monday. Very unlikely IMO, but not 0% chance. The 6z GFS was a bad sign. 6Z gfs is still like 20 degrees. We won't see 1" of plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ggem amps up first wave and second wave doesn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I still don't get how anyone can say 3 days out that this or that is going to happen with any confidence. Eric Horst sure can't...he just tweeted we could get a foot of snow...or an inch of rain. And Wmsptwx...you will follow every single model run. I'm more confident of that than anything else. Won't we all. I know I will. So when does the CMC and UKMET come out? yes, most of us will, the difference is, the rest of us won't go into A-fib every other run , lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Expect the ECM to jog south by a good chunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6Z gfs is still like 20 degrees. We won't see 1" of plain rain. We've got a sharp gradient so a moderate shift is all it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We've got a sharp gradient so a moderate shift is all it takes. If we get a shift that far north inside 60hrs then these models truly suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Long range GFS says no spring for you! Drops in another PV. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Long range GFS says no spring for you! Drops in another PV. lol Where's voyager?? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If we get a shift that far north inside 60hrs then these models truly suck. Eric Horst thinks 4-8" of snow with some sleet and zr is the most likely scenario for Lancaster, but it's just a preliminary guess as he's still very unsure and won't make any actual forecasts till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GEFS in agreement with OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PennLive funny moment: Story headline: Heavy snow possible in winter storm First comment: oh no, now i guess we have to see the nut bags from S&S posting their jibberish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PennLive funny moment: Story headline: Heavy snow possible in winter storm First comment: i just saw that while eating lunch, i about choked laughing. I blamed you right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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