paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM is ultra warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yea NAM is doing that "dump too much energy into the frontrunner" crap again...first wave goes north second wave south. Just hope the second wave sticks close enough that a last minute nudge north can help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lol I'm almost to the point of hoping we do well with the first wave up here. Looks like it stays freezing/frozen the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here is the first wave...I didn't think temps looked to bad for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lol I'm almost to the point of hoping we do well with the first wave up here. Looks like it stays freezing/frozen the whole time. your best shot is definitely the first wave...down here kinda might be stuck in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 People issuing maps like these with the models doing what they are need to be shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 People issuing maps like these with the models doing what they are need to be shot. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z GGEM south of us, right? Both of these models have a two pronged approach where emphasis is on the first wave, and both models (as well as the SREF) don't quite have the thermal boundaries south enough and introduce mixing/rain issues for the southern tier and more. The emphasized first wave pushes the boundary south when the second wave runs up. I would suspect the models' handling of the energy ejecting out of the southwest is having a pretty good influence on the model inconsistencies we have currently. Ideally, I would like to see this come out in one piece. I think a two pronged approach would put a noticeable dent in the top end accumulation potential and perhaps introduce precip issues if the first wave comes in too fast. I still think the latter is less likely, the NAM seems a bit too warm and I don't think it's really resolving where the frontal boundary will be quite yet. But with the PV flexing it's muscle and the frontal boundary pressing south its gonna be one wave or the other (probably the first) if we end up with two low pressure waves... and thus potentially more of a widespread 4-6" type event for central/southern PA vs what could be easily a 10-12"+ type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM doesn't have the first wave going way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If this doesn't happen...just remember, it was those damn Canadians breaking our heart once again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mag up here should we root for the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Both of these models have a two pronged approach where emphasis is on the first wave, and both models (as well as the SREF) don't quite have the thermal boundaries south enough and introduce mixing/rain issues for the southern tier and more. The emphasized first wave pushes the boundary south when the second wave runs up. I would suspect the models' handling of the energy ejecting out of the southwest is having a pretty good influence on the model inconsistencies we have currently. Ideally, I would like to see this come out in one piece. I think a two pronged approach would put a noticeable dent in the top end accumulation potential and perhaps introduce precip issues if the first wave comes in too fast. I still think the latter is less likely, the NAM seems a bit too warm and I don't think it's really resolving where the frontal boundary will be quite yet. But with the PV flexing it's muscle and the frontal boundary pressing south its gonna be one wave or the other (probably the first) if we end up with two low pressure waves... and thus potentially more of a widespread 4-6" type event for central/southern PA vs what could be easily a 10-12"+ type event. Thanks Mag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Both of these models have a two pronged approach where emphasis is on the first wave, and both models (as well as the SREF) don't quite have the thermal boundaries south enough and introduce mixing/rain issues for the southern tier and more. The emphasized first wave pushes the boundary south when the second wave runs up. I would suspect the models' handling of the energy ejecting out of the southwest is having a pretty good influence on the model inconsistencies we have currently. Ideally, I would like to see this come out in one piece. I think a two pronged approach would put a noticeable dent in the top end accumulation potential and perhaps introduce precip issues if the first wave comes in too fast. I still think the latter is less likely, the NAM seems a bit too warm and I don't think it's really resolving where the frontal boundary will be quite yet. But with the PV flexing it's muscle and the frontal boundary pressing south its gonna be one wave or the other (probably the first) if we end up with two low pressure waves... and thus potentially more of a widespread 4-6" type event for central/southern PA vs what could be easily a 10-12"+ type event. I agree with this totally, only I think its obvioius there will be at least some energy out ahead with that first wave. I think we need to hope that is minor and the second wave ends up being the bigger event and can be more amped and thus come north. If the first wave amps too much it will be too warm so I dont see much potential for that to be a big deal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks Mag Both of these models have a two pronged approach where emphasis is on the first wave, and both models (as well as the SREF) don't quite have the thermal boundaries south enough and introduce mixing/rain issues for the southern tier and more. The emphasized first wave pushes the boundary south when the second wave runs up. I would suspect the models' handling of the energy ejecting out of the southwest is having a pretty good influence on the model inconsistencies we have currently. Ideally, I would like to see this come out in one piece. I think a two pronged approach would put a noticeable dent in the top end accumulation potential and perhaps introduce precip issues if the first wave comes in too fast. I still think the latter is less likely, the NAM seems a bit too warm and I don't think it's really resolving where the frontal boundary will be quite yet. But with the PV flexing it's muscle and the frontal boundary pressing south its gonna be one wave or the other (probably the first) if we end up with two low pressure waves... and thus potentially more of a widespread 4-6" type event for central/southern PA vs what could be easily a 10-12"+ type event. Mag thank you also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Weaker with the wave compared to 18z FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 fwiw NAM/GFS is off quite a bit over northern US with current vs modeled temperatures... might not mean much if temps catch up to overnight low projections through overnight hours... but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I just looked at Earl Barker's NAM page and the 0z gives Schuylkill County a 1-2 inch snowfall...lol From the snow maps I saw we're stuck in the middle between the north and south waves on the NAM... Text data shows ABE .69 and AVP .62 though. Also... RGEM looks really good for the 1st wave for I 80 in PA... Nice few hours of snow, wave 2 probably would go way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 From the snow maps I saw we're stuck in the middle between the north and south waves on the NAM... Text data shows ABE .69 and AVP .62 though. Also... RGEM looks really good for the 1st wave for I 80 in PA... Nice few hours of snow, wave 2 probably would go way south. Glad you quoted my post. I wanted to edit it and deleted it by mistake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS looks to be coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS coming north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 North initially, but a bit south with heaviest stuff. Though we actually have a surface low this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS coming north lol Wave 1 is better for us, wave 2 still pretty far south but I guess that is what it is at this point. Nice push further north with 3-6" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 North initially, but a bit south with heaviest stuff. Though we actually have a surface low this run.Well north of 18z model craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC weenies jumping a bridge as this is warmer for them lol won't even read other forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a feeling this will eventually come back north that southern tier does well. the 6"+ is just south of the line right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not really.More so than 18z that's my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC weenies jumping a bridge as this is warmer for them lol won't even read other forums Warmer? They do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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