EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Horrible. This model needs to be shut off for the rest of this winter. Just scrap all the american models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Last 2 nights stayed up for Euro not tonight. Maybe that will be good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Don't abandon ship yet. Still some runs and wiggle room. Sure has been an interesting day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep. Hopefully this comes back north and the models are just piling on themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just scrap all the american models.. Ggem is a disaster too. When everyone stops complaining about how crappy the models are for taking away their snow maybe we can actually have a discussion about the real problems and what trends we need and if its likely. The guidance has been trending towards more energy going into that front runner wave. That creates a weaker second wave and pulls the front south also. Usually this is a mistake but my fear is there is not enough separation for wave 2 to amplify as the front is sinking south. If it doesn't amp the front won't be pushed back north and its going to end up to our south. If rather have analysis of the situation then just a b@tch session about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 . Ggem is a disaster too. When everyone stops complaining about how crappy the models are for taking away their snow maybe we can actually have a discussion about the real problems and what trends we need and if its likely. The guidance has been trending towards more energy going into that front runner wave. That creates a weaker second wave and pulls the front south also. Usually this is a mistake but my fear is there is not enough separation for wave 2 to amplify as the front is sinking south. If it doesn't amp the front won't be pushed back north and its going to end up to our south. If rather have analysis of the situation then just a b@tch session about the models. GGEM has been pretty dang good this winter. Not sure what you mean by disaster. Also the GFS doesn't even have a first wave it is just suppressed in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It seems the south models are condensing together. Did this GFS run sample the storm that's now on land? That's the difference - once that data gets ingested the model is much more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 . Ggem is a disaster too. When everyone stops complaining about how crappy the models are for taking away their snow maybe we can actually have a discussion about the real problems and what trends we need and if its likely. The guidance has been trending towards more energy going into that front runner wave. That creates a weaker second wave and pulls the front south also. Usually this is a mistake but my fear is there is not enough separation for wave 2 to amplify as the front is sinking south. If it doesn't amp the front won't be pushed back north and its going to end up to our south. If rather have analysis of the situation then just a b@tch session about the models. Hasn't GGEM verified as the best model this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM has been pretty dang good this winter. Not sure what you mean by disaster. Also the GFS doesn't even have a first wave it is just suppressed in general. I meant ggem is a disaster for snow in pa not that's its been bad sorry. Your right about the gfs with wave one but its still allowing a lot of energy to string out ahead on the front then not letting the real system amp enough to push the heavy precip back into pa. Gets there diff but same result too much energy strung out so the front slides south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I meant ggem is a disaster for snow in pa not that's its been bad sorry. Your right about the gfs with wave one but its still allowing a lot of energy to string out ahead on the front then not letting the real system amp enough to push the heavy precip back into pa. Gets there diff but same result too much energy strung out so the front slides south. Ya this is starting to remind me of that snow event that was supposed to ride a front earlier in the season and the other models starting showing good snows and the RGEM said no way. We barely got anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 . Ggem is a disaster too. When everyone stops complaining about how crappy the models are for taking away their snow maybe we can actually have a discussion about the real problems and what trends we need and if its likely. The guidance has been trending towards more energy going into that front runner wave. That creates a weaker second wave and pulls the front south also. Usually this is a mistake but my fear is there is not enough separation for wave 2 to amplify as the front is sinking south. If it doesn't amp the front won't be pushed back north and its going to end up to our south. If rather have analysis of the situation then just a b@tch session about the models. thank you! I think some need to take a moment and step away for a bit We go from how great the GFS is with this event to it needs scrapped? It is the 18z GFS where some of the input data is already 6+ hours old... the energy is still over open water... we need to take a better look at what the models are doing with the energy and the high over Canada over the next few hours and what happens late weekend as a result then see what actually happens... We have several scenarios presented and now we need to see which of them plays out... because one run dives way south and especially an 18z run is no reason to freak out yet... If I remember correctly... I recall times in the past where the GFS goes way off for a run or two before energy moves on shore like this situation right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ya this is starting to remind me of that snow event that was supposed to ride a front earlier in the season and the other models starting showing good snows and the RGEM said no way. We barely got anything. gem is on a tear. It was saying no big snow for Boston 2 weeks ago when the gfs and euro had 12" and it was right. I'm glad the gfs is showing this because its been bugging me for days that the ggem showed this and as the others slowly trended towards it still people were ignoring it. Now we know what the "screw" threat is and that its real so maybe we can look for and discuss what trend we actually need to get a more amped second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it is time for a beer break. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 . Ggem is a disaster too. When everyone stops complaining about how crappy the models are for taking away their snow maybe we can actually have a discussion about the real problems and what trends we need and if its likely. The guidance has been trending towards more energy going into that front runner wave. That creates a weaker second wave and pulls the front south also. Usually this is a mistake but my fear is there is not enough separation for wave 2 to amplify as the front is sinking south. If it doesn't amp the front won't be pushed back north and its going to end up to our south. If rather have analysis of the situation then just a b@tch session about the models. thank you! I think some need to take a moment and step away for a bit We go from how great the GFS is with this event to it needs scrapped? It is the 18z GFS where some of the input data is already 6+ hours old... the energy is still over open water... we need to take a better look at what the models are doing with the energy and the high over Canada over the next few hours and what happens late weekend as a result then see what actually happens... We have several scenarios presented and now we need to see which of them plays out... because one run dives way south and especially an 18z run is no reason to freak out yet... If I remember correctly... I recall times in the past where the GFS goes way off for a run or two before energy moves on shore like this situation right? djr I was going to say the same thing in response to Hoffman's post. We all know he is right. I hardly ever make posts that reflect anger toward anyone or anything. It was just a brief flare-up over the letdown at that moment. It's been said many times before but we almost never take it to heart because of our weenie-ness. We cannot live or die by each model run every six hours or it truly will drive us crazy. For those who have managed to keep the discourse primarily on analysis...I thank each of you. If this storm does turn in to a dud, well then so be it. Can we really complain about a top 15 snowiest winter season around here? I know we'll all be back here again at 10:45 awaiting the next runs. Perhaps we'll see a reversal? I'm particularly interested in the Euro because it has been the most consistent model overall this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it is time for a beer break. lol Oh there's plenty of that to spare around here this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, sorry. Been a pretty rough winter out our way. We have a pretty good total, but not a single storm over 6 inches. Getting nickled and dimed to death is not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Well, if I'm going to jump off a bridge with this storm.. i'm not basing said bridge jumping off the 18z GFS and the (any)z NAM outside of T-6 hours after the start of the storm. BTW, since we're discussing 18z models, here's the 18z RGEM at 48 hours. That is the short range regional version of the Canadian (GGEM). I guess you could call it a Canadian NAM of sorts. It goes out to 54 hours, I dunno what site had the 54 hour map.. I saw on in the mid-atlantic thread. Anyways.. Hour 48 RGEM: Oh there's plenty of that to spare around here this weekend. Just not downtown haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, sorry. Been a pretty rough winter out our way. We have a pretty good total, but not a single storm over 6 inches. Getting nickled and dimed to death is not fun. We're in a similar situation up here, though we've fared a bit better. Had two storms, if I remember correctly, over 6 inches (no 10"+ storms, though). Most have been 1-4 inchers. I'll take them, but they're not nearly as exciting. Anyhow, the fact that the main players are STILL not in the best-sampled parts of the atmosphere (on land over the US), I don't think we're done seeing model flips and flops just yet. However, given where guidance is now, it's going to be tough (though not impossible) to get us back to that PA-special we were all hoping for. People have already mentioned what needs to happen... that first wave needs to be weaker so the front doesn't push as far south, and so that it doesn't "steal energy" from wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Like that will stop anybody. Just not downtown haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like once again the local TV mets are going conservative and the bloggers going bonkers for HBG. WHP-TV has 4-6 WHTM has 4-8 No word from Fox 43 or WGAL yet. DT has us in the 8-14 range S&S 8-12 Our department policy is to issue snowfall maps 24 hours out from the beginning of the storm at the LATEST. We have not issued a map because of the fact that guidance is still all over the place. Believe me, Dr. Scala, Joe, Christine, and myself have talked about numbers, but at the earliest I'll show them tonight during our 10/11 newscasts, and if there's still no solid consensus by tonight, Christine will show them tomorrow morning. There has been a significant southward trend today (as we have all seen), but I don't believe this storm is just a minor system for us yet. How many times have we seen our favorite models trend one way, to trend the opposition direction within 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'll still stick with my instinct...if there's any sizable north shift tomorrow...it will be at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 wonder if accuweather is sweating with their latest projection? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/longduration-snow-awaits-midwe/23778975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Found it: RGEM Hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 wonder if accuweather is sweating with their latest projection? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/longduration-snow-awaits-midwe/23778975 LOL. Time for another beer! They must have been drinking too. Cheers accuweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL. Time for another beer! They must have been drinking too. Cheers accuweather! If Greencastle wasn't so far away, i'd buy the next round! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We're in a similar situation up here, though we've fared a bit better. Had two storms, if I remember correctly, over 6 inches (no 10"+ storms, though). Most have been 1-4 inchers. I'll take them, but they're not nearly as exciting. Anyhow, the fact that the main players are STILL not in the best-sampled parts of the atmosphere (on land over the US), I don't think we're done seeing model flips and flops just yet. However, given where guidance is now, it's going to be tough (though not impossible) to get us back to that PA-special we were all hoping for. People have already mentioned what needs to happen... that first wave needs to be weaker so the front doesn't push as far south, and so that it doesn't "steal energy" from wave 2. Our 6" or higher storms: Dec 14 6.0 Feb 3-4 6.2 Feb 12-13 9.5 Thanks for the update on whether the main storm is onshore. I was wondering about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If Greencastle wasn't so far away, i'd buy the next round! Haha. Hey i'm only a county over . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Rgem looks good for wave 1. No telling what wave 2 would do but u like the south more flat look on wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LOL. Time for another beer! They must have been drinking too. Cheers accuweather! Well come on, given what weekend it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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