packbacker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What does the EURO say? That's all that matters. LOL Euro shows a dusting to an inch across the piedmont. It says congrats BOS, but I guess don't need to say that, it's just implied with every winter storm. BOS get 6-10" all the way down to SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's your location? The fcst for Clarkesville is -ra/sn likely before 2am...then chance -sn afterward. Little accums. oops never mind you are right lol. i dont know what i was reading earlier today i just checked and saw it. maybe i didnt hit refresh this morning who knows. i am south of clarkesville at the little higher elevation near cornelia/mt airy (amazing how that little elevation can make a big difference sometimes lol) edited to add: btw fwiw yall did pretty good for mby this week. granted i sort of counted tue - thur as one although i know it was several events. in any event, i ended up with 8-9" on the ground (hard to measure with the wind) at one point which fell right within the range for total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a nice looking vort, goes neutral/negative, surprised it's not a little more juicy, although the SR models might start picking up on this. Hopefully for people that want snow again this is what would you would want towards the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Here's the thing though. They didn't really miss by 8 inches. The reason totals were reduced was because much of the snow was not snow, but sleet and freezing rain instead. The total QPF was forecast fairly well. In reality they missed by one or two degrees, not by 8 inches. I thought they did an excellent job forecasting this storm. They mentioned in all of their updates that sleet and freezing rain would play a factor to snow accumulations...to those who weren't lucky enough for all snow. I got HEAVY sleet at my house. You see the totals around Charlotte...we would have easily had a foot had it been all snow. Great job by GSP NWS, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z good old NAM! Notice , once again, the dry slot in western upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Typical snow shadows are back in effect with a clipper. No more Gulf Low and CAD; plus, BL is a debacle as noted in several posts. This is a very elevation driven system on both sides of the Apps for different reasons. Southwest winds have a warm BL in the Tenn valley. NC side lower elevations will fight downslope. On the bright side I think mountains will over achieve. Dynamic little system is dropping SN+ on the south end of the IL/IN border. 850 forecasts are right given Td at 850. Mountains may need to go 4-8 inches if not a little more. I want to ski so bad but the crowds will be horrendous with V-Day and Prez Day on the same weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This shouldn't be surprising considering its a clipper. I can't believe the GFS is putting out .24 of qpf at GSP for a clipper. 850's are 1 and 925's are 3-4 so I really would be surprised if the upstate saw anything other than some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WxSouth Working on the snow map for premium members. This is a fast mover, but will slow down by dawn in the Carolina Piedmont. Temps aloft are razor close for the Piedmont but the upper features are strong and will be abe to switch Charlotte to Raleigh over from rain to snow quickly around daybreak. Then this small upper low wobbles across most of Virginia mid morning bringing more snow toward central and eastern Virginia. Totals are tricky because of the tilt of the system, when it... tilts, the speed of the entire thing and the time of day precip gets east. The quickness of this system should preclude any serious totals, but 1" to 4" could occur in PIedmont VA, down to the NC/SC border near CLT and FAY with highest totals depending on strong rates, vertical velocities. I think the models aren't handling this one well, either. Interesting little system...See More Unlike · · Share · 111 · 6 minutes ago · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 15z sref is just over 2" here for the clipper. Given this is at the Macon county airport which is only about 2200'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Once again I'm rooting on Robert to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just took a look at the RAP. It does look pretty impressive for mby reflectivity wise, but temps are still a mess below 850. Who knows maybe we can get lucky and temps will crash faster than modeled. I tend to listen when Robert is honking something because more times than not he is right. Edit: HRRR looks much less impressive. Has precip breaking up as it moves across the upstate, which seems more likely given the direction the system is moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just took a look at the RAP. It does look pretty impressive for mby reflectivity wise, but temps are still a mess below 850. Who knows maybe we can get lucky and temps will crash faster than modeled. I tend to listen when Robert is honking something because more times than not he is right. Edit: HRRR looks much less impressive. Has precip breaking up as it moves across the upstate, which seems more likely given the direction the system is moving. These Clippers have a hard time staying together as they come over the mountains for the upstate. That does not surprise me at all. It has to be a big storm to make it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Even though its 53 outside right... one thing alot of the piedmont has going for them is the Snowpack and the low dps. I'm sure it would help keep the immediate surface cold up to about few hundred feet with radiational cooling tonight. Then as the precip fall and 850s crash it would have less of a warm bubble to fall through. Who knows how it may actually play out. If it gets cold enough tonight before the clouds roll in it may not even rain at all. But start out as sleet/snow mix before transitioning to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Even though its 53 outside right... one thing alot of the piedmont has going for them is the Snowpack and the low dps. I'm sure it would help keep the immediate surface cold up to about few hundred feet with radiational cooling tonight. Then as the precip fall and 850s crash it would have less of a warm bubble to fall through. Who knows how it may actually play out. If it gets cold enough tonight before the clouds roll in it may not even rain at all. But start out as sleet/snow mix before transitioning to all snow. I'm gonna be in trouble with temps sitting at 55 now and clouds rolling in from the west. I'll probably be cloudy by dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Robert is really struggling of late. I think he is waaay off on this one. Nothing to see here. What are you talking about? He did great on the last storm, as well as the one before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Most are focused on temps but I think the models are overdoing how much precip actually makes it to RDU & company. The apps will cut through the moisture and while Robert is saying RDU could do well I have a feeling it will be NW of RDU and Fay could get some cold rain/mix out of this, central NC could miss out. I'm on my cell so haven't looked too recently but it will be interesting to see what the HRRR spits out late tonight. I suspect not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah, WXSouth saying snow could be at RDU around 7 tomorrow morning, and 1 to 4 inches possible. RAH saying snow after 1 tomorrow afternoon, and little to no accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't see this one working out for most. If it does, then we have a storm thread started by Widre. That would seal the deal on a successful winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Robert is really struggling of late. I think he is waaay off on this one. Nothing to see here. What? That's as funny as all the kudos going to GSP for the storm earlier this week. The before and after could not be more opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah, WXSouth saying snow could be at RDU around 7 tomorrow morning, and 1 to 4 inches possible. RAH saying snow after 1 tomorrow afternoon, and little to no accumulation expected. Their discussion for Friday night and Saturday is curiously missing from the discussion area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Robert is really struggling of late. I think he is waaay off on this one. Nothing to see here. Are you living under a rock..... He NAILED the forecast for MBY. I ended up with 12 inches of snow. He was the only one that was bullish enough to see what that ULL was going to do for us. I think he is one of the best forecasters, out there, for our area. As for the clipper, I also think that the snowpack will have some influence on temps but I wouldn't even begin to know how much. We will see when the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is one time I hope we don't get accumulating snow. My wife and I are supposed to go see Les Miserables in Raleigh tomorrow night, and the kids are staying with my folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'll go ahead and cash out with the latest NAM clown map. Notice the tiny dark green dot over mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If BL temperatures weren't a complete torch, the 18z NAM would have just hammered us with a good 2-4" in many areas. Ugh. Rates will overcome all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'll go ahead and cash out with the latest NAM clown map. Notice the tiny dark green dot over mby Also notice snow hole over Central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If BL temperatures weren't a complete torch, the 18z NAM would have just hammered us with a good 2-4" in many areas. Ugh. Rates will overcome all... Yea I'm sitting at 55 now. and clouds building to the west, I hope it stays clear for few hours after dark give temps time to drop? But I don't think so here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah, WXSouth saying snow could be at RDU around 7 tomorrow morning, and 1 to 4 inches possible. RAH saying snow after 1 tomorrow afternoon, and little to no accumulation expected. His snow map has RDU at 2/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a nice looking system, but temps need to drop tonight big time, if we can get to under 40 by midnight and somehow to 35-36F when precip starts someone might see 1-2" under a heavy band. Needs to stay clear tonight, if it clouds up you can forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a nice looking system, but temps need to drop tonight big time, if we can get to under 40 by midnight and somehow to 35-36F when precip starts someone might see 1-2" under a heavy band. Needs to stay clear tonight, if it clouds up you can forget it. Clouds are already moving in. That's what's going to kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If I see as much as Robert is predicting here, I'll be tickled. Personally, I don't see it, but I hope I'm wrong. Snow falling on top of snow is awesome. One nice thing is that we won't have to worry about getting whatever snow falls to stick since there's already a nice snowpack laying around for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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