DomNH Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We get smoked on the front end on the NAM. Brings it in pretty early, too...looks like snows start by like 7-8 AM for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did they do any more air drop sondes today? Any need to at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 20" totals possible in the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 nice run overall, sure not everyone is happy but we are moving to a consensus with the front end....still some questions on the back. friday morning commute in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I love this run--1.5+ of all snow . From Whiteminster to Chris/me to Mitch e could possibly eek out a 20-spot in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Alright we survived the NAM up here...didn't yank the rug out from under us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Awesome death band for the Berkshires on 00z NAM. With the low level winds backing to a N to NW direction on the backside, that will favor a rapid temperature fall and upslope enhancement on the west slope. We could really rock here tomorrow night if that verifies. Front end looks good, but not quite as epic as to the E and SE of here. Unfortunately we get a few hours of sleet during the dryslot as precipitation lessens and some warming comes in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I love this run--1.5+ of all snow . From Whiteminster to Chris/me to Mitch e could possibly eek out a 20-spot in this scenario.Well, it is the NAM, but getting close to its useful range. Exciting stuff in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good luck N&W peeps...I figure an inch or maybe 2" here before a flooding rain..and then some snow showers on the backside they may dust the landscape white. Ice pack be gone. Tough call in the CP east of I95. Logan flips by 1230 or 1 if the NAM is right..out by Fella takes longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Curious about the screw zone (to the degree 1.25 is a screw zone) in the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 verbatim that gives metrowest N/W 128 1"+ liquid before a changeover. Need to be outside of 495 to be more sure of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How about NW of PVD in RI? (I'm in Smithfield). Have seen everything from 2" to 10" forecast here. Edit: my bad, this should be in the banter thread but don't know how to move it. You will have 2 per hour rates if NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM has it raining here at 15z with 925's over 0C. Doesn't look good for more than a couple verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Quincy said whiteout conditions for morning drive, looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM has it raining here at 15z with 925's over 0C. Doesn't look good for more than a couple verbatim. Yes sneaky warm punch in there. The diffuse low doesn't help us. The NAM almost wanted to lean cold but then didn't..let's see what the others show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Whether its colder of warmer. Let's recall it is the NAM. Real model runs in an hour. RGEM out in about 20-25 minutes...I put some weight on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Whether its colder of warmer. Let's recall it is the NAM. Real model runs in an hour. The NAM is actually one model that you want for this system given all the mesoscale aspects involved here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 In the good ones that tends to happen Hoping your map verifies Those VV's are insane on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I asked how much rain falls in CT before the dryslot...and that gets deleted? but people can say, "phew we survived the nam, it didnt pull the rug underneath us just yet." and "skiing til june" hypocrisy? We're deleting most posts that are non-analytical...some get missed with the speed at which they are being posted. If you can't handle a post getting deleted, then this probably isn't the thread for you. We have a pinned storm banter thread. Don't clutter this one up any further by complaining about a post getting deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 nam has been pretty good with this system, not sure why people still wanna throw around "its the nam", like its trending on twitter or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yes sneaky warm punch in there. The diffuse low doesn't help us. The NAM almost wanted to lean cold but then didn't..let's see what the others show. Euro has trended colder the last few runs, while the NAM has wobbled all over the place. The Euro having a more consolidated LP is probably why its a bit colder, like you said..versus the NAM's diffuse low. I think we'd still need another 30 mile tick SE to get anything meaningful in our region..but Ski country looks absolutely golden regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 nam has been pretty good with this system, not sure why people still wanna throw around "its the nam", like its trending on twitter or something. NAM has been very inconsistent here in ENY. Western edge has varied from ragged to intense meso banding. Sometimes it seems to over think the meso features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has trended colder the last few runs, while the NAM has wobbled all over the place. The Euro having a more consolidated LP is probably why its a bit colder, like you said..versus the NAM's diffuse low. I think we'd still need another 30 mile tick SE to get anything meaningful in our region..but Ski country looks absolutely golden regardless. no it hasnt. minor ticks here and there, like the euro imo. nothing "all over the place". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM has been very inconsistent here in ENY. Western edge has varied from ragged to intense meso banding. Sometimes it seems to over think the meso features. Euro has trended colder the last few runs, while the NAM has wobbled all over the place. The Euro having a more consolidated LP is probably why its a bit colder, like you said..versus the NAM's diffuse low. Agreed with both of these. The ECM has been pretty rock steady... the NAM has had runs where we get next to nothing, and other runs where we get over a foot. With that said, great H7 mid-level low track for western New England on the 00z NAM...will likely change in 6 hours anyway, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM has been very inconsistent here in ENY. Western edge has varied from ragged to intense meso banding. Sometimes it seems to over think the meso features. backyard relevant but overall its been pretty good with the features/evolution/etc....and actually it hasnt been bad outside of its so called range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Agreed with both of these. The ECM has been pretty rock steady... the NAM has had runs where we get next to nothing, and other runs where we get over a foot. With that said, great H7 mid-level low track for western New England on the 00z NAM...will likely change in 6 hours anyway, haha. midlevels.jpg Yep, NAM had runs yesterday where it kept the mid-level features WELL southeast. But that's why we don't really use it beyond 24 hours seriously. Euro has definitely been the leader on this storm. Though it has started slipping a shade east the last two runs, but you are still within its sweetspot on the CCB stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yep, NAM had runs yesterday where it kept the mid-level features WELL southeast. But that's why we don't really use it beyond 24 hours seriously. Euro has definitely been the leader on this storm. Though it has started slipping a shade east the last two runs, but you are still within its sweetspot on the CCB stuff. Yeah but I do expect a slight tick east in the ECMWF. The RGEM should be interesting... I just don't see this going as warm in the low/mid levels as some of these models have (like the NAM). The SREF mean has like the 540dm thickness line up at the Canadian border, lol. Hopefully the mid-levels can get their act together quickly and sort of pinch that warmth off for you guys into CNE. One of the things we see sometimes is a slightly later mid-level deepening vs. what the models have. I feel like we've had that situation before where the models are a little too quick in really getting the mid levels to go to town..though this doesn't really seem like one of those storms. Maybe that's more a Miller B type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM is a little east but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 some interesting observations downstream.. Danbury/Naugatuck WX@danburyweather26 mins 2hr NAM vs. 9pm obs: 2m temp was very good, however 850s analyzed at 2-4C colder than the NAM forecast across SE VA/NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM 24 hour 985 south of Nantucket. 36 hour 972 and captured over Portland. Intense neg tilt at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.