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Thursday & Thursday Night Winter Storm Discussion


CT Rain

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Awesome death band for the Berkshires on 00z NAM. With the low level winds backing to a N to NW direction on the backside, that will favor a rapid temperature fall and upslope enhancement on the west slope. We could really rock here tomorrow night if that verifies.

 

Front end looks good, but not quite as epic as to the E and SE of here. Unfortunately we get a few hours of sleet during the dryslot as precipitation lessens and some warming comes in aloft.

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I asked how much rain falls in CT before the dryslot...and that gets deleted? but people can say, "phew we survived the nam, it didnt pull the rug underneath us just yet." and "skiing til june"

 

hypocrisy?

 

 

We're deleting most posts that are non-analytical...some get missed with the speed at which they are being posted. If you can't handle a post getting deleted, then this probably isn't the thread for you. We have a pinned storm banter thread.

 

Don't clutter this one up any further by complaining about a post getting deleted.

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Yes sneaky warm punch in there.

The diffuse low doesn't help us. The NAM almost wanted to lean cold but then didn't..let's see what the others show.

Euro has trended colder the last few runs, while the NAM has wobbled all over the place. The Euro having a more consolidated LP is probably why its a bit colder, like you said..versus the NAM's diffuse low. I think we'd still need another 30 mile tick SE to get anything meaningful in our region..but Ski country looks absolutely golden regardless.

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nam has been pretty good with this system, not sure why people still wanna throw around "its the nam", like its trending on twitter or something.

NAM has been very inconsistent here in ENY. Western edge has varied from ragged to intense meso banding. Sometimes it seems to over think the meso features.

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Euro has trended colder the last few runs, while the NAM has wobbled all over the place. The Euro having a more consolidated LP is probably why its a bit colder, like you said..versus the NAM's diffuse low. I think we'd still need another 30 mile tick SE to get anything meaningful in our region..but Ski country looks absolutely golden regardless.

 

no it hasnt. minor ticks here and there, like the euro imo. nothing "all over the place".

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NAM has been very inconsistent here in ENY. Western edge has varied from ragged to intense meso banding. Sometimes it seems to over think the meso features.

 

Euro has trended colder the last few runs, while the NAM has wobbled all over the place. The Euro having a more consolidated LP is probably why its a bit colder, like you said..versus the NAM's diffuse low. 

 

Agreed with both of these.  The ECM has been pretty rock steady... the NAM has had runs where we get next to nothing, and other runs where we get over a foot.  

 

With that said, great H7 mid-level low track for western New England on the 00z NAM...will likely change in 6 hours anyway, haha.

 

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Agreed with both of these.  The ECM has been pretty rock steady... the NAM has had runs where we get next to nothing, and other runs where we get over a foot.  

 

With that said, great H7 mid-level low track for western New England on the 00z NAM...will likely change in 6 hours anyway, haha.

 

attachicon.gifmidlevels.jpg

 

 

Yep, NAM had runs yesterday where it kept the mid-level features WELL southeast.

 

But that's why we don't really use it beyond 24 hours seriously. Euro has definitely been the leader on this storm. Though it has started slipping a shade east the last two runs, but you are still within its sweetspot on the CCB stuff.

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Yep, NAM had runs yesterday where it kept the mid-level features WELL southeast.

 

But that's why we don't really use it beyond 24 hours seriously. Euro has definitely been the leader on this storm. Though it has started slipping a shade east the last two runs, but you are still within its sweetspot on the CCB stuff.

 

Yeah but I do expect a slight tick east in the ECMWF.  The RGEM should be interesting... I just don't see this going as warm in the low/mid levels as some of these models have (like the NAM).  The SREF mean has like the 540dm thickness line up at the Canadian border, lol.  Hopefully the mid-levels can get their act together quickly and sort of pinch that warmth off for you guys into CNE.  

 

One of the things we see sometimes is a slightly later mid-level deepening vs. what the models have.  I feel like we've had that situation before where the models are a little too quick in really getting the mid levels to go to town..though this doesn't really seem like one of those storms.  Maybe that's more a Miller B type thing.

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