moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At least you are admitting this is a big weenie statement. NAM doesn't have much support. The first step is to acknowledge you have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Too bad its the nam outside 24hrs....still lovely to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like they are early. And it looks like a classic Nor'easter with the relatively sharp rain/mix/snow line common to this type of storm. Of course, if it comes in further west the lines will have to be redrawn; likewise if it veers a little south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Winter Storm Watches posted for most counties in the GYX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At least you are admitting this is a big weenie statement. NAM doesn't have much support. it has mine. Me and the NAM are very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM for he 5th Consecutive Run is exactly the same and ALL you Mets want to keep tossing it. 5 runs you almost could not tell apart. apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We don't get blizzards in GC. I'm sure Will can dig one up but it just doesn't ever happen out here, especially in the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM back to the more amplified version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTV afternoon discussion and map. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BTWN AMERICAN AND REST OF THE MODELS WL USEA BLEND BTWN HPC/ECMWF/GFS FOR QPF. THIS SUPPORTS TRACE TO 0.10SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.50 TO 0.75" ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF VT.EXPECTING A VERY SHARP EAST TO WEST GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...MAKINGFOR AN EXTREMELY CHALLENGING SNOWFALL FCST. USING A 12 TO 1 SNOWRATIO FOR THE VALLEYS AND 15 TO 1 FOR THE MTNS SUGGESTS 6 OR MOREINCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM CPV AND POINTS EAST. THINKING AROUND 6INCHES CPV...TO 6 TO 10 INCHES CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH LOCALIZEDHIGHER AMOUNTS FROM KILLINGTON TO SUGARBUSH TO STOWE. THIS WL BESUBJECT TO CHANGE AS TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES AND ULVL DYNAMICSCHANGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. EXPECTING GFS/NAM TO TREND TWD THEECMWF/UKMET AND GEM SOLUTIONS BY THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT. FCST TEMPSWL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATEDOVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm shivering under my shawl. Wednesday Night A slight chance of snow after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 12. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thursday Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Same time period for ORH is 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That GYX map has an impressive swath of 10-14" across NH/Maine. Of course, about 5% of that swath is a slightly less desirable color, including the Route 2 corridor in Franklin/Somerset Cty. However, 8-10 is nothing to sneeze at - if it verifies, it would probably boost my snowpack to 30" or more, for the first time since 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When will Taunton put up the WSW? Looks kind of silly on the NOAA map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is PVD-BOS-ESSEX 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam looks good. Lil less trustworthy than a chick on ashleymadison Sad that no model other then one w sw energy issues is trustworthy here We wait till 1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When will Taunton put up the WSW? Looks kind of silly on the NOAA map! 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam looks good. Lil less trustworthy than a chick on ashleymadison Sad that no model other then one w sw energy issues is trustworthy here We wait till 1 am lol... Canadian, Ukie, and Euro have consistently been fairly similar, so I wouldn't bet against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If only the NAM were a good model. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is PVD-BOS-ESSEX 850 line Just barely glances my fanny. Can't get a much better track than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Upper levels just are plain not good for SNE overall as the storm continues to get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM take it right over ACK. Big front ender with taint/dryslot and with the stinger signaled. Coming into consensus. Cory's going batsh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is like opening up the arc on Indiana Jones. You see the solution and you are like...."It is beautiful..." Will and I are like Indiana tell you don't look at it...don't look at it. All of the sudden..demons start to buzz around your head and your face melts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Also, H7 low suggests Powderfreak gets 12+ per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is like opening up the arc on Indiana Jones. You see the solution and you are like...."It is beautiful..." Will and I are like Indiana tell you don't look at it...don't look at it. All of the sudden..demons start to buzz around your head and your face melts off. I really do not think its that good lol. That's the sad thing. Wish I was 75mi nw. You have to think this is the run the GFS goes NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Feeling the "snowstorm of the season" scenarios slipping away here for eastern SNE... While NAM is among the most favorable models for eastern SNE, 18Z NAM ticked significantly warmer... 850mb temps for KBOS up to 2.9C at 54h vs. -1.3C on 12Z NAM. Still a great front-end thump before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Feeling the "snowstorm of the season" scenarios slipping away here for eastern SNE... While NAM is among the most favorable models for eastern SNE, 18Z NAM ticked significantly warmer... 850mb temps for KBOS up to 2.9C at 54h vs. -1.3C on 12Z NAM. Still a great front-end thump before then I never really have felt this one as much as I did last week. Too many bugs. We could get lucky but I think we have to rely on a big front end dump and the stinger modeled as well on alot of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GYX Forecast Snowfall Don't understand that map. MMore snow Se nh than central? What about mixing. Zones say moderate accumulated thurs heavy accumulated thurs night. That equals more than 8 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just not feeling it for this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hm. Weird that the nam pretty much held it's solution and didn't swing wildly. Probably wrong still though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just not feeling it for this area.... where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I never really have felt this one as much as I did last week. Too many bugs. We could get lucky but I think we have to rely on a big front end dump and the stinger modeled as well on alot of guidance. Agree... suboptimal high position, bowling ball miller A blowing its load too early... SNE was threading the needle on this one and things had to be just right for the bigger scenarios. We'll still have a decent front-end thump, but not anywhere near the blockbuster stuff in the midAtlantic. The weenie in me won't give up (still time!), but objective trends are against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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