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NCsandhills

Burns' Big Banter Bonanza

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Work is closed tomorrow. They say about Friday: "News for Friday operations will come down the pike as early as we can figure it out." I don't know where this pike is, how we got it installed, or who is putting news down it.

Hope it's an American pike and not one of those ****ty made Chinese pikes.

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Rough est is about 120k Duke Energy customers without power ATM, mainly in NE SC and SE NC, they are starting to assign 2/15 restoration dates for many of them, other still assessing. Florence and Lumberton are still below freezing and continuing to add light to at time mod acreation. I would expect these numbers to rise as winds pick up with the coastal tracking just offshore.

 

Thank you for your reports and insight WeatherNC. And I loved your map last night! :)

 

When and where do you suspect the 850 ull to merge with the developing SLP? Basically this is when the SLP will really bomb out right? I'm thinking maybe off Cape Fear? I'd rather it be further south, but it might be even more north than that.

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Well I guess all the watches and warning of impending doom weren't enough for Raleigh folks.  I'll have to give the NWS a grade of F in their primary mission of protecting life and property.   :whistle:

 

The weather in the Raleigh-Durham area caught North Carolinians off guard when it changed from a "non-precipitation event to heavy snowfall," the State Highway Patrol's Public Information Officer tells us.
by Sarah Aarthun 4:24 PM

 

 

 

Yeah, that change happened three days ago. WTF are they smoking?

 

 

It's always easy to blame someone else for their own failings.

 

 

The start time for this event was actually pretty well forecast. The models were consistently showing the precip getting here between noon and 2 PM, and the NWS was saying the same. They shouldn't be blamed for their forecast actually being correct. I guess everyone figured that since the last one took forever to start, that that meant all storms would take forever to start.

 

 

I think that quote is open to misinterpretation. I would bet the State Highway Patrol's Public Information Officer meant something along the lines of "it went from cloudy skies and clear roads to heavy snow and covered roads in less than 20 minutes" -- not that the forecast was bad, just how the observable conditions changed rapidly and caught people off-guard.

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whew that was close...thought my power was out. blinked twice then went dark. just as about to get up to find a flashlight it came back on (after unsetting all the clocks, etc lol)

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NW of Roxboro... 5 mins from and 30 mins from Danville.

 

 

interesting....if those colder 850's are starting to push southwest I might get MBY back into the snow game before too terribly much longer

 

Excuse me....push southeast.....that wouldnt be very possible lol.

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Work is closed tomorrow. They say about Friday: "News for Friday operations will come down the pike as early as we can figure it out." I don't know where this pike is, how we got it installed, or who is putting news down it.

 

A pike's food takes time to digest.

northernpike1.jpg

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The heaviest snow band is associated with the upper low itself in coming through Central Alabama.  It's a shame that it took this for the snow to finally occur here.  On a scale of 1-10 for winter weather events this one gets a 4 because this is so pathetic..

 

This is why I hate snow in the South because it is too much to go into it being a decent event.  I would rather have had another event like 2 weeks ago than this.

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I think a good glazing is coming down the pike. I just went outside. Mostly zr....some ip mixed in. I hope power outages don't come down the pike. I'm glad you got some snow and are enjoying this storm, Widre!

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I wish you guys would post your location when you post what its doing. 

 

Yeah, that's why I put my location in my signature.  I advise others to do the same since locations are turned off during this time of high-traffic for the servers. :)

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What do you guys think about additional snow potential in Raleigh over the next 24 hours.  NWS has us getting up to 1-2 additional inches tonight and then 1-2 additional inches tomorrow.  A little bit hard to believe because the storm really seems to have slowed down over the past few hours, we've just had light sleet.

 

Also the temp is starting to inch upwards; about 28F now when it was 24F this afternoon.  But AFAIK with the wrap-around bands tomorrow we shouldn't have to worry as much about sleet/freezing rain.

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I think a good glazing is coming down the pike. I just went outside. Mostly zr....some ip mixed in. I hope power outages don't come down the pike. I'm glad you got some snow and are enjoying this storm, Widre!

Still all sleet here, and coming down at a pretty good rate, too. The snowpack has that etched look to it that I associate with sleet accumulation. I haven't bothered trying to measure the sleet accumulation, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were at least a 1/2". I talked to my mom over in North Raleigh, same latitude, and she said it's still IP there, so I assume our changeover won't happen for a bit longer. I'm also assuming that the IP to ZR changeover will be more of a east-to-west thing than a south-to-north thing like the SN to IP changeover.

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I'll ping all night to get 2"/hr rates from the deformation band tomorrow.

 

 

figured you saw that.....Damn.  I'd love to get some of that Birmingham T-snow as well..

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I'll ping all night to get 2"/hr rates from the deformation band tomorrow.

Does it look like the deformation band will be over the triad still? Around what part of the night/day is that supposed to take place? Sorry, but I just learned what a deformation band was. I've seen it mentioned a lot but haven't bothered to Google it till today.

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Still all sleet here, and coming down at a pretty good rate, too. The snowpack has that etched look to it that I associate with sleet accumulation. I haven't bothered trying to measure the sleet accumulation, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were at least a 1/2". I talked to my mom over in North Raleigh, same latitude, and she said it's still IP there, so I assume our changeover won't happen for a bit longer. I'm also assuming that the IP to ZR changeover will be more of a east-to-west thing than a south-to-north thing like the SN to IP changeover.

SPC thinks a good portion of the area turns to ZR. Hopefully we won't accrue enough that it's a problem. I walked outside a few minutes ago and the snow is starting to get a nice crusty surface. Hopefully we knock it out on a world class deform band tomorrow.

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Does it look like the deformation band will be over the triad still? Around what part of the night/day is that supposed to take place? Sorry, but I just learned what a deformation band was. I've seen it mentioned a lot but haven't bothered to Google it till today.

 

The 12z Euro crushes us all day with it.  The 00z NAM crushes us with it, too.  The RGEM also looked good to me.  It should be during the day tomorrow.

 

The truth is that these deformation bands are crap shoots and I really have no confidence we'll get the best of it, but whoever does get it is going to get hammered, it appears.  It packs quite a punch.  The Euro was about as perfect as you could ever hope for.  It showed about 1" QPF with it.  Probably overdone and unrealistic, but it would be sick.  You're talking 8"+ snow from the deformation band with rates likely in the 2"+/hr range at times.  It trained all over us all day long until sunset.

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Does it look like the deformation band will be over the triad still? Around what part of the night/day is that supposed to take place? Sorry, but I just learned what a deformation band was. I've seen it mentioned a lot but haven't bothered to Google it till today.

 

Yes Dont worry you will probably have snizzle, flurries, -sn +sn near dusk tomorrow and sleet mainly tonight

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Super - what are you thinking for snowfall (when will it resume, how much, when will it end)? Here in the 27106 (Old Town/Winston-Salem) we've seen solid sleet for a couple of hours now - total buzzkill.

 

edited to add - asked at the same time as you gave your deformation band info - thanks!

 

Yeah, that's why I put my location in my signature.  I advise others to do the same since locations are turned off during this time of high-traffic for the servers. :)

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Super - what are you thinking for snowfall (when will it resume, how much, when will it end)? Here in the 27106 (Old Town/Winston-Salem) we've seen solid sleet for a couple of hours now - total buzzkill.

 

edited to add - asked at the same time as you gave your deformation band info - thanks!

 

It's tough because that deformation band is a crap shoot, but I'd say 8-12".  Assuming you've got around 6" on the ground now like I do here, I think we can make 8" tonight just from the sleet alone (radar looks juicy) as sleet is usually around 3:1 liquid equivalent.  That leaves us with up to 4" with the deformation band tomorrow.  I guess you could argue we could get lucky and get a Euro-like solution, in which case the sky is the limit, but we should probably try to keep our expectations in check because it could just as easily be nothing while other areas get slammed.

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I keep expecting the lull to come into Raleigh but always seems to back fill right to the south of us.

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The 12z Euro crushes us all day with it.  The 00z NAM crushes us with it, too.  The RGEM also looked good to me.  It should be during the day tomorrow.

 

The truth is that these deformation bands are crap shoots and I really have no confidence we'll get the best of it, but whoever does get it is going to get hammered, it appears.  It packs quite a punch.  The Euro was about as perfect as you could ever hope for.  It showed about 1" QPF with it.  Probably overdone and unrealistic, but it would be sick.  You're talking 8"+ snow from the deformation band with rates likely in the 2"+/hr range at times.  It trained all over us all day long until sunset.

 

The 4km NAM is crazy too.  Has over 0.5" of QPF across central NC with that crazy H5 low crossing, definitely overdone, but even if you half it, 0.25" might get 1-2" for some people.

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The 4km NAM is crazy too.  Has over 0.5" of QPF across central NC with that crazy H5 low crossing, definitely overdone, but even if you half it, 0.25" might get 1-2" for some people.

 

Did you see the HRRR?  OMG.

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I keep expecting the lull to come into Raleigh but always seems to back fill right to the south of us.

 

Yep, it could get ugly for us, I keep thinking the same thing.  But then it keeps back building.

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