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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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Been following this one for back home and FFC's "conservative" numbers they've laid out in their recent discussion are pretty amazing. As they said, the slightly colder temperatures being forecast now make this possibly "historical" rather than just significant...rough night ahead I'm sure as the snow/sleet vs. freezing rain line sets up somewhere within/near metro ATL according to the forecast.

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Well being without power is probably about as biblical as 99% of the population gets. 

Fair enough. I'm just not one to use biblical to describe a weather event... Tis all. Matter of preference.

 

That said, I warned my brother on Sunday about this storm... He said, really? Is it going to be that bad? I was like... uh... Yeah!!! Get your groceries now before the masses clean out the stores! He listened. :D

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Does anyone on this board live in the Athens area?  I have friends who live there, and I'm thinking they should be prepared for at least 3 days without power.  Probably a good idea to prepare for a week just in case.

Yes. It has appeared to me and others this looked like mostly a snow and sleet event. However this afternoon's nam/gfs runs give me cause for concern as the warm nose is warmer and a little deeper. However, the boundary layer is still very cold with 925 to 950mb temps as low as -6c and since the max agl warm nose reaches about 2c at it's warmest (nam reaches 3c briefly at 900mb but quickly drops it back down below freezing), i still lean toward more sleet than freezing rain. 

 

However, you don't have to go too far south for it to appear to be incredible amounts of ice and any more mid level warming things will quickly turn toward an extreme icestorm.  FFC has issued an icestorm warning for athens and over my way but i don't expect as much freezing rain as they are advertising for my specific location.

 

I'm really hoping it stays cold enough here to keep the ice away because I want no part of an inch of freezing rain. Given the scope and magnitude of this storm, if any area gets hit hard with ice and power outages..I wouldn't expect power to be back on for a week or more..and that might be optimistic. If this was a more localized event it would be different but it's worrisome as hell to think about the power going out because I know it's going to be a looong time before it comes back on again.

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Well, if it's biblical it had better be 6 inches of z, lol.  Less that two weeks ago he said it will be warm the next two weeks :)

        Now, I don't mind if I turn into a pillar of sleet..........  But There is no way I'm going to have to live though another 73...just no way.  But I wrote a sign for the EMC to keep them off my croquet court just in case.    T

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It means he thinks the augusta area will have over an inch of ice, while columbia only has around an inch...lol 

 

Luck us!  I'm still weary of the temperatures falling like they think.  One would think the dewpoints would be falling at this point to allow temperatures to drop.  We have quite a ways to go before we hit the freezing mark. 

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Does anyone on this board live in the Athens area?  I have friends who live there, and I'm thinking they should be prepared for at least 3 days without power.  Probably a good idea to prepare for a week just in case.

 

I'm in Athens. The forecasts are starting to concern me.

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Yes. It has appeared to me and others this looked like mostly a snow and sleet event. However this afternoon's nam/gfs runs give me cause for concern as the warm nose is warmer and a little deeper. However, the boundary layer is still very cold with 925 to 950mb temps as low as -6c and since the max agl warm nose reaches about 2c at it's warmest (nam reaches 3c briefly at 900mb but quickly drops it back down below freezing), i still lean toward more sleet than freezing rain. 

 

However, you don't have to go too far south for it to appear to be incredible amounts of ice and any more mid level warming things will quickly turn toward an extreme icestorm.  FFC has issued an icestorm warning for athens and over my way but i don't expect as much freezing rain as they are advertising for my specific location.

 

I'm really hoping it stays cold enough here to keep the ice away because I want no part of an inch of freezing rain. Given the scope and magnitude of this storm, if any area gets hit hard with ice and power outages..I wouldn't expect power to be back on for a week or more..and that might be optimistic. If this was a more localized event it would be different but it's worrisome as hell to think about the power going out because I know it's going to be a looong time before it comes back on again.

Forgot to mention, GSP is forecasting mostly snow and sleet in elbert county (4 to 8 inches of snow) next door to me and athens. I don't see it being much warmer in athens vs elbert.

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Luck us!  I'm still weary of the temperatures falling like they think.  One would think the dewpoints would be falling at this point to allow temperatures to drop.  We have quite a ways to go before we hit the freezing mark. 

There is very strong cold advection right above the surface.  By sunrise tomorrow 950mb temps drop to -6c/21 in athens so naturally surface temps are going to drop. Not our usual way of getting below freezing in a cad situation which is normally helped out a lot by  evaporational cooling.

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Forgot to mention, GSP is forecasting mostly snow and sleet in elbert county (4 to 8 inches of snow) next door to me and athens. I don't see it being much warmer in athens vs elbert.

It really doesn't matter how much snow anyone gets. The headlines coming out of this one will be ice.

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On the new GSP map, those totals look to be from today through Thursday, correct? So if you had two inches that has melted would you subtract that amount from the totals on the map for the system tomorrow?

That does include snowfall from today. For instance, you see the dark pink in places like Piedmont, Fountain Inn...those places got 4 inches today. Simpsonville got like 2-3. So, you could take a projection of like 10" for Fountain Inn plus the 4" for 14".

Whereas where I live in Taylors...we have trace but projected to get 12"

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I hardly even care what the models show anymore. 1-28, they were showing 8-10 for my area...we got 3.5. Today was a 50%

chance of 1" to 2"...right now we have 6". Sooooo. I think if i want to know thE weather...ill justt look outside.

It was pretty amazing how little attention todays snow/wave got but some of us did pay attention to it and weren't far off.   I think the highest was 6 inches in north ga and although it happened a little further north than i thought it would be, all along i thought there  could be a 5 inch amount somewhere.

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