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Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

JoshM

By JoshM,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Per 0Z Euro, I think you'd be ~30-31 with ZR from the end of the 1st wave Tue PM and then 28-30 and heavier ZR from wave #2 Wed AM.

Thanks Larry...I know we still have about 4 days left before something happens, but just have a funny feeling about this one.  I feel like the euro is on to something and its in the wheelhouse.  GFS is trying, and I think it will get back there for sure.  If we got that much ZR, we are in serious trouble.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

I don't envy you for your local market.  What would you say this far out?  I mean this is to the point where it could be life threatening for some of the ice areas....   otherwise.. if the EPS members are over 35 members for KCAE .. showing Wintry Weather.. I'm off to the kerosene tank store.

 

This is really pretty nuts how the modeling is doing.  The last snow event some of us saw.. the Euro OP lost the deal a few times, got it back a few times, and then ultimately the EPS took over and Larry made a thread just because of their support.

 

Now, the Euro OP and looks to be the EPS are going to be locked in on this with the GFS a bit on the outside (but trending) and the GGEM trying to lock in on the Euro for the major ice into SC at least.

 

I feel like this has a 75% chance to verify winter weather AT LEAST as far south as ATL & Newberry SC

ITs very tough right now.  I had mid 40's in there for TUE/WED, but I have a feeling that will be much lower.  I didn't drop them to low just because of the unknown  If the euro is right tonight we are in for a lot of issues come tue/wed  and the southern half of my viewing area is probably in the 40's and heavy rain.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

ITs very tough right now.  I had mid 40's in there for TUE/WED, but I have a feeling that will be much lower.  I didn't drop them to low just because of the unknown  If the euro is right tonight we are in for a lot of issues come tue/wed  and the southern half of my viewing area is probably in the 40's and heavy rain.

 

I knew a local met from here in SC before he moved.  He basically told me no matter what the models said outside 1 or 2 days; he wasn't allowed to sound any major winter weather alarms until he was 100% sure or he'd lose his job.

 

Down where you're at it's probably harder to try and let people know; but at the same time be calm about it.  The general public react much differently than we do; thats for sure.

 

If I were you (and i have not one bit of broadcast meteo under my belt)... is I'd wait until sunday night to say a word at all other than "we have to watch the temps for some possible winter weather" and leave it at that... and let the NWS take over ... but still.. its hard.

 

 

the above is the a big reason why I couldnt ever go to school for meteo or work at the NWS or locally.  I just couldnt keep my mouth shut/not blow something up and it not happen.  On top of that; If I did that; I'd feel horrible if i busted saying rain and it was a major winter storm.  Damned if you do; damned if you don't in that profession.  Stress! :(

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I knew a local met from here in SC before he moved.  He basically told me no matter what the models said outside 1 or 2 days; he wasn't allowed to sound any major winter weather alarms until he was 100% sure or he'd lose his job.

 

Down where you're at it's probably harder to try and let people know; but at the same time be calm about it.  The general public react much differently than we do; thats for sure.

 

If I were you (and i have not one bit of broadcast meteo under my belt)... is I'd wait until sunday night to say a word at all other than "we have to watch the temps for some possible winter weather" and leave it at that... and let the NWS take over ... but still.. its hard.

 

Something to the effect of, "The possibility of a significant winter storm exists for mid week. While it is far from certain, now would be a good time to think about what you would need to do if it does occur."  Followed of course by the inevitable, "Stay tuned to channel 00 and we will keep you informed on this developing situation." 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

I just don't see my area getting any zr or ip. It would take an incredibly strong CAD to make it into Douglas, Paulding, and Carroll. We saw that happen in 2005 but that was a once in a lifetime event this far west.

 

Well; since 2005; the "super high" along with its snow/ip/zr hasnt really happened.  I hope you're right for you and I's own sake.

 

EDIT: was 2005  a bananna high or was that the 1044+mb beast?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Well; since 2005; the "super high" along with its snow/ip/zr hasnt really happened.  I hope you're right for you and I's own sake.

 

EDIT: was 2005  a bananna high or was that the 1044+mb beast?

 

 1/2005: monster 1047 high, only 1 mb weaker than strongest high I could find for any major ATL ZR going back to late 1800's!

 

Avg. high for major ATL ZR is only ~1037 mb.

 

Edit: the 0Z euro has 32 back to AL line. High peaks at 1036 2/11 12Z and 1034 2/12 12Z, both still strong enough with cold enough air like it has and good wedge.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

 1/2005: monster 1047 high, only 1 mb weaker than strongest high I could find for any major ATL ZR going back to late 1800's!

 

Avg. high for major ATL ZR is only ~1037 mb.

 

Edit: the 0Z euro has 32 back to AL line. High peaks at 1036 2/11 12Z and 1034 2/12 12Z, both still strong enough with cold enough air like it has and good wedge.

 

Hm, neither the GGEM or Euro have a 1037 unless I just didn't look from tonights 00z runs.  I know the Euro was close on earlier runs.

 

Thanks Larry.  You're like a gold mine of historical weather info.  I feel like we need to preserve you and your records for future generations.

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

MHX is starting to talk about frozen precip for us guys east of 95 now for the front end wave but then all rain for the second wave. I'd prefer not to have a ZR issue so if we can get a couple inches of snow from the first wave and then change to straight rain i'd be ok with that.

 

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW ISENT LIFT INCREASING N OF STALLED FRONT WITH
PRECIP GRAD DEVELOPING ESPCLY SRN TIER. FCST LOW LVL
TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP MUCH OF
THE AREA. FOR NOW SHOW CHC POPS WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX DEVELOPING BY
EARLY TUE MOST OF THE REGION AND CONT THRU THE DAY WITH PRECIP
BECOMING JUST RAIN FAR S. LOWERED HIGHS SIGNIF TUE WITH UPR 30S N
TO LOWER 40S S. WAY TO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND
AMOUNTS BUT CANT RULE OUT THREAT FOR POSS SOME ACCUM OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

BEYOND TUE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST AS GFS/ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT
ALL WITH ECMWF SHOWING MAIN LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD WED WHILE GFS
SLOWER SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS WED INTO EARLY
THU THEN DRY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DO GRAD WARM LOW LVLS SO MAINLY RAIN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY 40S WED THEN LOW TO MID 50S
THU AND FRI.

-- End Changed Discussion --


 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

MHX is starting to talk about frozen precip for us guys east of 95 now for the front end wave but then all rain for the second wave. I'd prefer not to have a ZR issue so if we can get a couple inches of snow from the first wave and then change to straight rain i'd be ok with that.

 

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS BOTH

GFS/ECMWF SHOW ISENT LIFT INCREASING N OF STALLED FRONT WITH

PRECIP GRAD DEVELOPING ESPCLY SRN TIER. FCST LOW LVL

TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP MUCH OF

THE AREA. FOR NOW SHOW CHC POPS WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX DEVELOPING BY

EARLY TUE MOST OF THE REGION AND CONT THRU THE DAY WITH PRECIP

BECOMING JUST RAIN FAR S. LOWERED HIGHS SIGNIF TUE WITH UPR 30S N

TO LOWER 40S S. WAY TO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND

AMOUNTS BUT CANT RULE OUT THREAT FOR POSS SOME ACCUM OVER PARTS OF

THE REGION TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

BEYOND TUE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FCST AS GFS/ECMWF DO NOT AGREE AT

ALL WITH ECMWF SHOWING MAIN LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD WED WHILE GFS

SLOWER SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GIVEN

UNCERTAINTY DID NOT CHANGE PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS WED INTO EARLY

THU THEN DRY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF DO GRAD WARM LOW LVLS SO MAINLY RAIN

EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY 40S WED THEN LOW TO MID 50S

THU AND FRI.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

 

KCAE is refusing to update the longterm for us.  i guess their "will adjust to successive model runs" text is going to stick for a bit.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I just don't see my area getting any zr or ip. It would take an incredibly strong CAD to make it into Douglas, Paulding, and Carroll. We saw that happen in 2005 but that was a once in a lifetime event this far west.

Oh, I don't know about that.  We used to get strong cads all the time.  No problem to get them well into Ala.  Just usually not with enough rain to matter.  The weather around here since you've been alive hasn't been the best there is to offer, lol.  You'd be surprised what a cad can do for you over there.  If a cad is hitting hotlanta with something then it's not much of a push to get to you, or miss you south and take out LaGrange, lol.  The trick is getting it below freezing into Atl.  T

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Euro ensembles just as cold as the Op, and the trough coming in is similar, if anything a bit slower and more neutral tilt. I don't get to see the precip for another hour but based on the other maps looks bad for all of north GA Tues night and Wed. May have to go buy a generator.. Blech.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Man, I really don't want this?  Where is Tony to trade me this ZR for Snow or something?

 

Thanks Larry, I see that now. :(  I almost feel sick.

 

You guys don't understand.  I live in a civil war house with huge trees (150 yrs old+), no generator, no insulation, wide open fields to not block wind. and its just not good. 

 

Anyway; sob story over... this is definitely going in line down into sc as the euro has been going along with it's EPS members.  Atlanta could be in play here too.  GSP looks to be a raging sleet/ice/snow storm.  Per 00z GGEM that is.

Never fear, Shawn.  See my avatar.  This may be my sleet vision :)  Heaping mounds of sleet for all.  The joys of 3 or 4 inches of sleet can't be understated, but you do have to brave the z monster to get the sleet.  It's just the way it is.  Anyway, it's mostly pines that get it from zr, and those limbs just bend over and break...most of the time.  Or lay over on the house in slow motion.  Mostly they just scare the crap out of you, and leave you in the dark, without heat...unless you are real unlucky, and a limp pops a hole in the roof.  Now sleet is just pure fun, with a great sound.  So what we all want is a sleet profile when the time comes.  Oh, and Tony trades snow for sleet, lol, I don't care if I never see zr again.  It's worthless and destructive and scares the iss out of you even if you don't get damage.  T

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Back up here in Foothills "Big Frostys stomping ground" ill say Euro has underdone moisture this is a perfect track for up sloping snow, and it probably is cutting back the amounts because of the convective feedback nature of Sleet. But still a couple days no big deal on amounts just glad we are still tracking

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

Just rolled over and like a kid at Christmas had to peek at my present. Lets just say daddy likes his new bicycle! NAM is joining the party and holy crap does the Euro look good for the Triad. Rather have the pingers under the snow but beggers cant be choosers!

Anyone have expected 2m temps for Wednesday handy? Just want to know if this will stay frozen or a slush bomb?

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Yep, much colder but too dry with the first wave...... the second wave is suppressed and late. Model war continues. One thing to take away is the fact that any precip that does make it in here with the first wave, will be snow vs. freezing rain.

 

I know the 6z looks bad...but compared to runs yesterday it looks like it's trying to get more moisture in on the second wave. First wave looks wonky compared to the other modes.  I do worry that the SREF looks a lot like the 6z GFS out to 84. 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

I know the 6z looks bad...but compared to runs yesterday it looks like it's trying to get more moisture in on the second wave. First wave looks wonky compared to the other modes.  I do worry that the SREF looks a lot like the 6z GFS out to 84. 

 

EPS members burger.... i almost 100% promise they will out do the other modeling for now.

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