superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Taken verbatim, the 00z GFS may not have been great, but I'll take the trend. Looked like a step back towards the Euro and I like the colder look. I expect the Euro to maintain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yep, the HP is holding longer but the bloody storm needs to get going. lets HOPE the euro stays strong. if it does, then ill feel more comfortable than lastnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You should see the JMA, shows 2-4" of snow for west TN through 72 and it would look like that would fill in east to NC/SC/GA through 96 hours. I would post but not sure if AmericanWx would allow there maps to be posted since they are paid maps. you're welcome to paste it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 UK does look to be forming a SLP off the SE coast day 5, and day 6 shows SLP up the coast that would probably scrape the NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 you're welcome to paste it Here you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here you go... You know.. that isn't too far off from the GEFS mean 850c wise especially. Might be a good or bad sign of course. Thanks for letting him post that @ Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAVGEM like the day 3-4 overrunning too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM looks the same for the overrunning as the GFS, maybe has the heavier precip a little further south, but nice to see models agreeing on someone getting some early snow on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Temps scare me more than anything. Both local stations in upstate, and TWC say either rain or zr for upstate. No mention of snow at all. At this time, our lowest forecast temp for the event is 32, which usually spells bad news for winter weather in these parts. I have seen many systems come through with temps forecast for 31-32 and it never gets below 34. End result is you get either cold rain or something that never accumulates. Definitely need this to bring some lower surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM looks the same for the overrunning as the GFS, maybe has the heavier precip a little further south, but nice to see models agreeing on someone getting some early snow on Tuesday. EDIT: NVM about that request. Don't wanna ask IMBY. I see the system on the low res maps trying to get going in the Gulf.. not sure about precip yet... but it looks to nail the NE possibly... maybe NY is at the heart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not a super fan of the CMC, but I will say its cold for mid and NGA. Coldest (besides euro) of the models. would put down some good ZR over NGA and into the Upstate. Not as wet as the euro, but MUCH better than GFS which also tells me the GFS is likely wrong with its solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It looks the 00z GGEM is slower with sliding the HP off the coast than at 12z, though the LP is a bit slower, too. I haven't seen precip maps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 EDIT: NVM about that request. Don't wanna ask IMBY. I see the system on the low res maps trying to get going in the Gulf.. not sure about precip yet... but it looks to nail the NE possibly... maybe NY is at the heart? I can't tell on the maps I have, to coarse, but looks like it's just south of NC/SC border. The 2nd storm looks weaker/slower but again, my maps are not that great, need better maps which will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I can't tell on the maps I have, to coarse, but looks like it's just south of NC/SC border. The 2nd storm looks weaker/slower but again, my maps are not that great, need better maps which will be out soon. Oh okay. I thought you were viewing HQ maps. I absolutely hate the black and white charts if that's what you see. And thanks James. that's a bit strange that both the GFS and now as you say the GGEM may be slower w/ the gulf system. It's changes like that.... that can make or break the system for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It looks the 00z GGEM is slower with sliding the HP off the coast than at 12z, though the LP is a bit slower, too. I haven't seen precip maps yet. Still looks very icy from the coarse maps I have, looks like it held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Oh okay. I thought you were viewing HQ maps. I absolutely hate the black and white charts if that's what you see. No, mine are even worse that those. Take a look. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&carte=1&mode=2&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No, mine are even worse that those. Take a look. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=114&code=0&carte=1&mode=2&archive=0 Ah yes james sent me these once. You can save the images and flip them in windows picture viewer btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Still looks very icy from the coarse maps I have, looks like it held. Yeah, at hr 120 on the 00z GGEM, the HP appears to be 200+ miles SW of its position at hr 132 on the 12z run and also 4 mb stronger. Of course, the Gulf Low is a little slower, too. Yeah, that French site is good for seeing the maps the quickest, though the maps suck, haha. Meteocentre has the "classic" maps out now, but I'm still waiting on precip maps. EDIT: Precip maps are out. Good hit with the overrunning. Nice event. The "main event" is a big hit. Not sure on P-type, but it's a lot of precip and presumably frozen for at least the CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SC is pretty much shut out on the coarse GGEM maps for the overrunning event. Even the upstate. 850s are like "hello, we will just sit on the NC/SC border and just stay away!" EDIT: Further on for the main deal.. it looks like a LOT of SC ends up ice per horrible maps. Will wait for better quality maps to actually post amoutns etc if it is indeed cold enough for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CMC maps finally updated, looks a lot like GFS snowfall wise for NC, looks like PGV to FAY are in the 6-8" range, all the way back to CLT which is in the 3-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Even on the high res maps.. for SC. I cant tell how cold 2m is.. but 850s dont support snow for the midlands.. maybe not even the upstate.. and well idk. Its close either way.. very close to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I just looked at the coarse GGEM maps. They have, verbatim major ZR for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday. So, they appear to be colder than earlier runs. You can see the 32 line wedging in strongly al the way over to ATL with steady precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM does have a 1035MB high when it matters in the NE. WoW. Step to the Euro also? EDIT: as the low pops on these horrible maps I have.. it drops to 1033 not so sure about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I just looked at the coarse GGEM maps. They have, verbatim major ZR for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday. So, they appear to be colder than earlier runs. You can see the 32 line wedging in strongly al the way over to ATL with steady precip.. Yeah, looks like a pretty crazy ice storm the areas, to bad that the storm doesn't move in sooner, well assuming you like ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 UGH I KNEW IT: :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Comparing the 0z CMC to it's 12z run it doesn't move the HP out as fast and it's stronger over the 12z run, similar to the GFS, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My maps have finally loaded for the cmc and they're showing a major ice storm. Pack, that would be a major ip or zr storm for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I just looked at the coarse GGEM maps. They have, verbatim major ZR for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday. So, they appear to be colder than earlier runs. You can see the 32 line wedging in strongly al the way over to ATL with steady precip.. Looks like around an inch liquid falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM does have a 1035MB high when it matters in the NE. WoW. Step to the Euro also? You appear to be getting long duration major ZR per GGEM 2 m temp.'s/850's/ptype Wed. into Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My maps have finally loaded for the cmc and they're showing a major ice storm. Pack, that would be a major ip or zr storm for our area. Yeah, compare it to the 12z run, much stronger HP with 0z run and in a better spot and precip gets here sooner... 0z at hour 120 12z run at 132... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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