Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAVGEM is a very nice snowfall day 4+ for NC, that is definitely trending nicely on the models. Yes, puts down a few good inches of snow across NC with the overrunning event ahead of the southern wave. Cold is gone by the time the primary low arrives.. albeit weak and progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well 18z GFS ENS mean remains wetter than the operational model. Here is 24 hour QPF at hour 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 WXBell EPS members don't seem to be come out on my end; Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well 18z GFS ENS mean remains wetter than the operational model. Here is 24 hour QPF at hour 108 That day 4-5 overrunning looks to be our best bet for snow, GEFS mean looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z ecmwf ens members. Mean snow at RDU looks to still be around 4.5 inches or so. I count 18 members with 6+ inches at RDU. vs only 13 at 00z, so actually a small improvement. Again keep in mind this takes into account ice as well and isnt purely snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z ecmwf ens members. Mean snow at RDU looks to still be around 4.5 inches or so. I count 18 members with 6+ inches at RDU. vs only 13 at 00z, so actually a small improvement. Again keep in mind this takes into account ice as well and isnt purely snow. If you get a chance take a look at CLT, INT, and HKY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z ecmwf ens members. Mean snow at RDU looks to still be around 4.5 inches or so. I count 18 members with 6+ inches at RDU. vs only 13 at 00z, so actually a small improvement. Again keep in mind this takes into account ice as well and isnt purely snow. Technically, not an MBY question, though those with a sense of geography can see it as such.... Does the 850 line transect NC east-to-west, or is it sloping somewhat? What are some decent landmarks for orientation. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z ecmwf ens members. Mean snow at RDU looks to still be around 4.5 inches or so. I count 18 members with 6+ inches at RDU. vs only 13 at 00z, so actually a small improvement. Again keep in mind this takes into account ice as well and isnt purely snow. Encouraging news...Thanks for the update Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 18z GFS may well be correct, but to be honest I was expecting it (and other models) to lose the storm yesterday. Very seldom have I seen models keep a winter storm from day 7 to the event. Day 5/4 seems to be the twilight zone. I think this may be another case where either late tomorrow or Sunday it starts to trend back to a more wintery look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you get a chance take a look at CLT, INT, and HKY Dont have time at this moment, i also did glance at HKY and it looked slightly more than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you get a chance take a look at CLT, INT, and HKY All 3 are roughly the same, not sure what they had at 0z, 6-6.5" on the mean, with over half the members showing 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 WXBell EPS members don't seem to be come out on my end; Anyone else?work fine for me.Esp mean here continues to hold at 6 inches for three runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 All 3 are roughly the same, not sure what they had at 0z, 6-6.5" on the mean, with over half the members showing 6"+.Thanks guys really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CLT is up a bit from 0z, I'm pretty sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just got a look at the 12z ecmwf ens members. Mean snow at RDU looks to still be around 4.5 inches or so. I count 18 members with 6+ inches at RDU. vs only 13 at 00z, so actually a small improvement. Again keep in mind this takes into account ice as well and isnt purely snow. KCAE now has 39 members onboard for Winter weather opposed to 31 at last night's 00z. GEFS individual members showed that 1310m line through this area.. and some even hinting at snow pretty far down into SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I guess I have always counted a “hit” as anything wintry, whether it be snow,sleet, or freezing rain. IMO, Beggars can’t be choosers in the Southeast. FWIW, here is wpc’s take. It looks like they are predicting the perfect setup at the moment. Ditto! I am not getting all the negativity either - cad events are fun and it's been a long time. Cad rains have been plentiful so now we need a cad with something frozen I am still liking the look for a cad event. Getting a bit excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CLT is up a bit from 0z, I'm pretty sure. 49 members show Winter weather for CLT. As for snowfall (im sure its not all snow), it shows over 12 inches on OP and a little over 6 for the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 49 members show Winter weather for CLT. As for snowfall (im sure its not all snow), it shows over 12 inches on OP and a little over 6 for the mean. I believe mean was 5" or a bit less at 0z. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I believe mean was 5" or a bit less at 0z. Nice. 28 members have 6" or more, two of them with 20"+ may be skewing it a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's an improvement of a inch in ensembles from 00z to 12z Euro for Asheville thanks to two or three more big dogs. However, 2 members did dropped the idea of 2+ inches event from 00z. Again, like RaleighWx said, this is assuming all frozen precip is 10:1 ratio snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z EPS mean Totals: GSO: 6.25" CLT: 6.25" HKY: 7" AVL: 7.5" RDU: 4.5" MWK: 6.5" GSP: 6.5" DAN: 6" Across the board, they're pretty similar to the 00z totals, though a little higher (CLT is up quite a bit, IIRC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This one is going to be interesting. Even Robert is being uncharacteristically non-comittal......Could be the biggest of big dogs for these parts or a total non event.......only 4 days off......going to be a fun one to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Love the look of the 0z NAM, has precip running out much faster, granted it's to far north for NC, but it's the NAM which is typically to far NW after 60 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nam seems to have a wave on a front that will move through Monday afternoon. Maybe this takes the place of the GL low and also helps bring in colder air. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seems like on the 00z nam, the system coming into CA this weekend just dissipates. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seems like on the 00z nam, the system coming into CA this weekend just dissipates. TW Looks ok to me, was other modeling showing it stronger? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020800&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The map posted above seems to be for tomorrow's event? It's only valid thru the 11th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The map posted above seems to be for tomorrow's event? It's only valid thru the 11th... Nope. It just straight goes too far North for NC. (the first wave).. NAM doesn't go out long enough to get the "main show" yet... but not sure it'd even be there... Notice it says "24 hr snow".. well that would be between 00z on the 10th and 00z on the 11th or Monday 00z through Tuesday at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The map posted above seems to be for tomorrow's event? It's only valid thru the 11th... The main event energy in that map is just west of TX, looks ok to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My take is Tonight's 0z and Sat 12 z Euro op and ens will tell the tale if they hold their ground. If the Euro consistency continues you will be under the 120 benchmark. I always had a rule of thumb that if the euro ops/ens give you consecutive runs under 120, it's hard to beat. So the pressure is on tonight and lunchtime tomorrow. If it's gonna fold its hand it will be at these time slots IMO. The Euro has been keeping the southern stream energy as the dominant fixture while the GFS the past couple of runs has been letting the northern stream take over leftover crumbs from the dissolving southern stream energy. Will be interesting to watch unfold, hopefully the rubber will snap and erase this 3 year snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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