Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My take is Tonight's 0z and Sat 12 z Euro op and ens will tell the tale if they hold their ground. If the Euro consistency continues you will be under the 120 benchmark. I always had a rule of thumb that if the euro ops/ens give you consecutive runs under 120, it's hard to beat. So the pressure is own tonight and lunchtime tomorrow. If it's gonna fold its hand it will be at these time slots IMO. The Euro has been keeping the southern stream energy as the dominant fixture while the GFS the past couple of runs has been letting the northern stream take over leftover crumbs from the dissolving southern stream energy. Will be interesting to watch unfold, hopefully the rubber will snap and erase this 3 year snow drought. When dealing with southern stream energy, the odds are strongly with the Euro in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My take is Tonight's 0z and Sat 12 z Euro op and ens will tell the tale if they hold their ground. If the Euro consistency continues you will be under the 120 benchmark. I always had a rule of thumb that if the euro ops/ens give you consecutive runs under 120, it's hard to beat. So the pressure is on tonight and lunchtime tomorrow. If it's gonna fold its hand it will be at these time slots IMO. The Euro has been keeping the southern stream energy as the dominant fixture while the GFS the past couple of runs has been letting the northern stream take over leftover crumbs from the dissolving southern stream energy. Will be interesting to watch unfold, hopefully the rubber will snap and erase this 3 year snow drought. I think the euro caves tonight, or really cuts back on the event... Man I hope I'm wrong? 84 hour NAM looks to much like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the euro caves tonight, or really cuts back on the event... Man I hope I'm wrong? 84 hour NAM looks to much like the GFS Luckily the 84hr NAM outputs are rarely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The main event energy in that map is just west of TX, looks ok to me. Agreed. It is that 12-16 500 mb vorticity over NM/Mex that is moving toward us and digging the trough/about to turn the 500 flow from W to moist WSW. The key would be whether or not that energy strengthens and induces a nice Miller A for 2nd wave just after that. Note the area of precip over NM and the moisture in the W Gulf as well as the 1035 high moving E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Luckily the 84hr NAM outputs are rarely accurate. I know, but it worries me it looks like GFS at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When dealing with southern stream energy, the odds are strongly with the Euro in this time range.Agree. My experience in the past is that it handles southern stream energy way better/consistently and the ole inside 120 rule of thumb along with the ee rule where always hard to beat. So it's game time tonight and Sat 12z. If it holds steady we should see GFS come around Sunday night Monday. The next big hurdle will be the duration/position of the HP and CAD configuration. That will spell out the details of the storm. But first we have to lock in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the euro caves tonight, or really cuts back on the event... Man I hope I'm wrong? 84 hour NAM looks to much like the GFS The operational could possibly be "less" of a big deal.. but.. the EPS is where it's at. The last snow many of us in the SE saw was carried by the EPS even when the OP said "NO!" after showing and losing it. I wouldn't worry about the OP being drier/less... just pay attention to what people say about the Ensemble mean/EPS members and you'll have a much clearer idea. So far, how can so many EPS members be wrong with so much winter weather shown? Hell, even a cpl members showed frozen precip into Charleston. (NO this probably wont happen) but its interesting to see... how far south some members take the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The early parts of this system, the potential over-running portion, are now coming into the range of the SREF ensembles. Here are the 21Z plumes for Hickory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The early parts of this system, the potential over-running portion, are now coming into the range of the SREF ensembles. Here are the 21Z plumes for Hickory: Already one member (early) on board for KCAE to see Ice Pellets and another for ZR. (low chance.. but still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Is the sref calibered with the same mechanics as the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I like the upper level pattern of the 0z gfs. the streams seem to be interacting more at hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS looks real nice for the day 3-4 stuff, nice stripe of snow down NC/SC state line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Trend is there on the GFS, SW short wave a bit less sheared/positive tilt at 102. I expect the Euro to hold serve or be close to its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lots of light overrunning precipitation from hour 81 through 105 in NC on the 00Z run of the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS is really trying..lol 2m Looks colder at least through hour 108. heaviest qpf along gom coast trying to move NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the big turn up the coast is getting ready to show on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I like the upper level pattern of the 0z gfs. the streams seem to be interacting more at hour 90 Yep, the HP is holding longer but the bloody storm needs to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0z gfs looked a lot better tonight but not going to do it this run. I'm out to 120 and moisture still in gulf and we're losing the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 850 temps are retreating up the east coast at hour 123... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The only real important thing here is the trend. The details of this run are irrelevant. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 A bit better than the 18z ... reverses that 2 run trend of a weak nothing. Don't care what the GFS does with the low itself as it's notorious for squashing them out at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0z gfs looked a lot better tonight but not going to do it this run. I'm out to 120 and moisture still in gulf and we're losing the wedge. Well the GFS holds the CAD in through 0z Thursday but no precip, the Euro had over an inch of precip into all of NC by 0z Thursday from the main event, but GFS has 0 precip. Good news is the GFS is holding the CAD in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The only real important thing here is the trend. The details of this run are irrelevant. Baby steps. Agreed...Again, I MAY be wrong....BUT I really think this is very predictable. GFS is in its usual poopoo mode where it looses systems/strings them out. I think EURO could actually trend like it did last night. If euro goes away tonight, then maybe think....but I think this is the wheelhouse of euro. Typical day 3-5 GFS error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well the GFS holds the CAD in through 0z Thursday but no precip, the Euro had over an inch of precip into all of NC by 0z Thursday from the main event, but GFS has 0 precip. Good news is the GFS is holding the CAD in longer. I agree pack...If the moisture arrived at the same time as the euro is showing, we'd be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The first wave puts down 5-6" of snow around FAY/Clinton it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at the 00z GFS. If the system gets going faster before that high pulls away; the 2m cold temps are VERY far South... we'd be in big ice trouble here in a lot of SC at least if not GA too. Closer to the Euro we inch I suppose'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 UK looks like it would agree with the overrunning precip day 3-4, would be be snow for NC and northern GA/SC. This is valid 0z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The first wave puts down 5-6" of snow around FAY/Clinton it looks like. If you go back to yesterdays discussion on this storm there's a map that shows this same thing a little swath of snow south of hwy 64 and east of 95.. how long it keeps showing this is anyone guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 UK looks like it would agree with the overrunning precip day 3-4, would be be snow for NC and northern GA/SC. This is valid 0z Tues. For a biased model for supression; it sure has a ton of precip into the USA from the Gulf moisture/SW flow I would think. Good find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 For a biased model for supression; it sure has a ton of precip into the USA from the Gulf moisture/SW flow I would think. Good find. You should see the JMA, shows 2-4" of snow for west TN through 72 and it would look like that would fill in east to NC/SC/GA through 96 hours. I would post but not sure if AmericanWx would allow there maps to be posted since they are paid maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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