psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would love to see these western solutions verify. I might see nothing, but am loving the meltdowns from the megalopolis weenies. I have more compassion because some of us would be having a meltdown if a storm like this fell apart right before game time got us. I have little sympathy for NYC or Philly but dc has seen little snow this year I really hope they don't get screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I have more compassion because some of us would be having a meltdown if a storm like this fell apart right before game time got us. I have little sympathy for NYC or Philly but dc has seen little snow this year I really hope they don't get screwed again. Yeah, DC really hasn't had much at all since 09-10. They could use a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Reading the midst lactic forum, man it's rough. I'm really rooting for DC but the trend unfortunately isn't their friend. NAM run in a few hours should be telling, at 0z it should be locked in on its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 12z Euro has a nice 700 mb frontogenesis band over central PA, as a result of the closed 700 mb low deforming the temperature field. It is strange that the 18z GFS has a much weaker precip field with little sign of this banding feature, especially since it has the 700 mb low at a similar (though slightly weaker) intensity. This feature is about 50 miles east on the GFS but values of 700 mb frontogenesis are much weaker and limited to the northwest of it's 700 mb low depiction. Depending upon the final track of the system, there could be a pretty stout band somewhere in central PA, likely east of UNV. Aside from the favorable deformation of the thermal field, there will also be a tongue of higher theta-e air of Atlantic origin advecting into the region. This coupled with the cooling and drying 500 mb temperatures with the height falls may lead to a moist adiabatic or slightly conditionally unstable layer between 500 and 600 mb. I think tonight's model suite should give us more confidence if the westward shift in today's guidance is legitimate. I suspect that it may be as progressively more information about the northern stream disturbance was assimilated into today's runs. However, were are still about 36-48 hours away so there could still be some subtle changes after tonight's runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My mom just sent me the S&S 16-32 map that she saw on facebook. She lives in Huntingdon county. Two hours from ****head and ****head's target demo area. My head just asploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My mom just sent me the S&S 16-32 map that she saw on facebook. She lives in Huntingdon county. Two hours from ****head and ****head's target demo area. My head just asploded. 16-32"? I don't see that. Here is their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My mom just sent me the S&S 16-32 map that she saw on facebook. She lives in Huntingdon county. Two hours from ****head and ****head's target demo area. My head just asploded. S&S groupies have been trolling local TV stations' facebook pages. It's really getting out of hand with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Had one of my students tell me he was getting 16-32 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP now has all of Cumberland & half of Daulphin county in the 6-8 in range as of 7:12 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP now has all of Cumberland & half of Daulphin county in the 6-8 in range as of 7:12 pm Slowly moving those higher totals west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For posterity... With the way that Mt. Holly has the 10-14" axis juxtaposed, I would half expect CTP to up their totals for Lan Co and SEPA later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For posterity... StormTotalSnow.png Damn, you beat me to it. Must be refreshing as much as me.... NOOB! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked to see Rain in Eastern PA if we get a low closer to coast or over PA/NJ border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Damn, you beat me to it. Must be refreshing as much as me.... NOOB! lol They actually had it up for a while, and I'll let the noob comment slide since I was a NYC forum regular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How are things looking? Been out all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They actually had it up for a while, and I'll let the noob comment slide since I was a NYC forum regular grearth 2014-02-11 19-42-13-69.png haha. There's our baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What the hell is this? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Keep marching left, baby. I want you to hit the crossbar before counting for points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How are things looking? Been out all day. Pretty good actually. Models trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What the hell is this? lol What happens when you're an adult and don't have to eat bread anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What the hell is this? lol I'm surprised my area is only in the 3 bottles range. I was thinking more around 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pretty good actually. Models trending west. Nice. I see UNV is now in the 2-4 zone. Might actually get more snow here then back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm surprised my area is only in the 3 bottles range. I was thinking more around 4. Thought it was the how many bottles you'll need if it bust and you drink away your sorrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Folks especially east of I-95 should have been aware from the get-go that these solutions that are close to the coast would introduce mixing issues. That's obvious to just about anyone growing up where I did, where you could sneeze in the wrong direction and cause a change to rain. What's killing us is the trend today towards blowing up the mid level trough and negative tilting it so soon over NC and obliterating us with warm air. Earlier trends were for it to be a little weaker and holding back the warm air and the track a little east. I was expecting in the back of my mind issues with the dryslot and rain for the coast-I'm banking on the initial 8 hour period being a wall of heavy snow before the warm air arrives. The best spot now looks to be over I-81 or a little east, over a foot there it looks-the lame QPF displays there should go away in later runs. Hopefully it ends up working out somehow for all of us but UNV/AOO/IPT look in the game for at least a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It can bring whatever it wants, i got beer, wine and liquor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thought it was the how many bottles you'll need if it bust and you drink away your sorrows. I thought I would love to see this completely bust to make those fools with the ridiculous maps look real bad... I want this to be real big or real big bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How's the N** forum doing JM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thought it was the how many bottles you'll need if it bust and you drink away your sorrows. There's not a legend large enough for NTSC formatting to show my need. I'm basically Andre the Giant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How's the N** forum doing JM? My post deleting fingers haven't been as busy as I thought they would be today, honestly (backing up other Mods for the next couple of days). Most of us are more than happy with the winter we've had, with some exceptions who have largely been dealt with at this point. We have a nice snowpack here that should be added to substantially even at the coast, and this could put us very close to 50" on the season for everyone, maybe over 50" west of the city. No one in their right mind can whine about that. Everyone knows how great we've had it this winter, and we can't win every R/S line battle on the shore where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Other than the RGEM the westward trend has been measured and slow. Soon we shall see if the RGEM was catching on to something the others weren't seeing. Perhaps the kicker which was just on shore enough to be properly sampled and the RGEM being the more recent model? Anyway, I won't disguise my bias, I'm hoping the westward trend continues to western pa and wny too- obviously it would take several more clicks to the left. NAM will be first good indicator and it drops soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.