Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The storm center on the NAM isn't west at 18Z, instead the precip shield is actually getting more expansive. Also, remember this: IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not good news. It's not necessarily bad news, it's just that the SREFs are still not very useful for the central counties where we of course could really use a solid consensus between the foreign guidance and the US guidance with regards to precip extent. Much better agreement exists for the LSV and that is why CTP opted for the warnings in those three counties. The majority of members by in large are still going the way of the NAM op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The storm center on the NAM isn't west at 18Z, instead the precip shield is actually getting more expansive. Also, remember this: Was that from a WPC discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Was that from a WPC discussion? Yes, save for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 PSU don't get burnt on this deal, neither side seems to be giving in so at 0z we are either going to be happy or find out the american models had it right. The only two that show extreme east solution are the Americans. Everything else is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MD and VA just went under state of emergency. PA might declare soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CTP's AFD was a good read, especially the "Poor man's ensemble of the CMC/NAM/GFS" line. They seem to be liking the EURO more & more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO ensembles are a solid hit for Adams/York/Lancaster. A foot south of the turnpike. About 8" up towards Chambersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does Harrisburg look on the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How does Harrisburg look on the Euro ensembles? Around 1" Also, the Canadian ensembles are similar to EURO ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Woa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is pretty awesome. Recon plane is currently collecting data 000NOUS42 KNHC 101620REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71--A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000ZB. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66C. 11/2000ZD. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHEDE. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 umm. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A good short term disco from CTP: .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HEAVYSNOW THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEYWITH EARLIER WATCHES NOW UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORKAND ADAMS COUNTIES. POOR MAN`S ENSEMBLE OF CMC/NAM/GFS STILLFAVOR...PERHAPS AT THEIR PERIL...AN OFFSHORE TRACK WITHSIGNIFICANTLY LOWER QPF THAN THEIR EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. THECHALLENGE FOR OUR AREA IS HANDLING THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THEWESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND RESOLVING THESIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LIQUID OUTPUT FROM THESE TWO CAMPS.STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THENORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW ALONG THESOUTHEAST TEXAS OR LOUISIANA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAYMORNING. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESULTANT DEEP CONVECTION WILLLARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW CAN TRACK.LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH THE SFC LOWTRACK PLACING A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE COLDCONVEYOR BELT SNOWFALL THURSDAY. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY OFFON THIS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE WEIGHTED PREVIOUS QPF AND SNOWFALL20% OF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH JOGS OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THEWEST AND NORTH. WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...UPGRADED WATCHESTO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK AND ADAMS...AND ISSUED WATCHES FORSCHUYLKILL LEBANON DAUPHIN PERRY CUMBLERAND FRANKLIN FULTON ANDBEDFORD COUNTIES. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLESOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND JOHNSTOWN...BUT NOT ENOUGHCONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT YET FOR THESE AREAS AND THERE IS STILLPLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.SNOWFALL SHOULD LAST A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY OVER THE EASTBEFORE TAPERING OFF...PERHAPS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVERSOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES INVOF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH MAY DRY SLOT THE PIEDMONT REGION. STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORKOUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALSSLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF.HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITSCONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THEWESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARDEVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORYISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE (EVENING ANDMIDNIGHT) SHIFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Insanely amped up RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GOOD LORD RGEM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This storm just keeps getting crazier and crazier. The amounts should be huge for central PA if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MD and VA just went under state of emergency. PA might declare soon? Where did you see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Insanely amped up RGEM GZ_D5_PN_054_0000.gif Would mix back to 81 with that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No chance it comes close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM CTP speical? Would mix back to 81 with that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ABC27 Harrisburg's map is out - 5-10 with sleet (wtf?) PHL to MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is pretty awesome. Recon plane is currently collecting data ScreenHunter_65 Feb. 11 16.08.png Woah, that is pretty awesome. Wonder the last snowstorm that did a recon flight for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Harrisburg TV mets are starting to put out maps. Tom Russell at WHP apparently buys into the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ROFL we get NYC's CCB verbatim on the RGEM. Won't verify but still crazy to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ROFL we get NYC's CCB verbatim on the RGEM. Won't verify but still crazy to look at. I think i'd die and go to heaven if that happened haha. Be all like March 1994 called, it wants it's nor'easter back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would mix back to 81 with that lol. 81 south of wilkes barre it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS comes west. Still bone dry though compared to everything else. Highest qpf panels are .10" for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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