Rick G Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 winter storm watch just went up here. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY248 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014NYZ057-062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-122000-/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0003.140213T1200Z-140214T1100Z/DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE248 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN CATSKILLS, POCONOS REGION AND WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA VALLEYS.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE.* TIMING...THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING* TEMPERATURES...MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND 20, INCREASING TO AROUND 30 DURING THE DAY.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ON THURSDAY IN HEAVY SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS APOSSIBILITY...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE. TRAVELCONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITORTHE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVELIN THE WATCH AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Horst's call for Lancaster county is 6-12" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L47Rt9-Yk5w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Huge changes on 18Z nam already through 18hrs. Bet this is finally the good run we been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm confused. Is UNV pretty much out of it altogether now? Not at all. Models have taken a solid westward step and some give us at least a 3-6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WOW at SREFs...and the mean is still west, it's still trucking west. As for the snow hole on the EURO, who knows I'll take 5 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A lot more west tracks. If it was not for the random complete misses the mean would be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18Z nam is coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREFs really expand the precip shield to the west, and the Euro ensemble mean via Tombo over at PhillyWX says its colder than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM actually looks kinda the same through 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM actually looks kinda the same through 33. It's not, precip shield is well west of last run. H5 is greatly better as well. Should see a better run, but feel will have to wait to 0Z to see full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Judging by the NAM is the kicker slower, weaker or is the track different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Already into Western ND at 36 hours so moving pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Better run, slowly getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Already into Western ND at 36 hours so moving pretty good. About the same spot with less precip than 0Z. Not sure what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's not, precip shield is well west of last run. H5 is greatly better as well. Should see a better run, but feel will have to wait to 0Z to see full effect. Trough is almost neutral at 36 18z and better consolidation vs positive at 39 12z, should be west of 12z for sure. Still holding out hope to squeeze out an advisory in SWPA from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Getting there. .50" now back to 81. Last run was only about .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have any news from the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dang, why can't the NAM just give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM still seems to be an eastern outlier track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREFs have a fairly reasonable spread in the LSV region (York, Lancaster) but back this way there is still some tremendous discrepancy. Using KAOO we have three members in the 1.5-2.0" QPF range, two members around the half inch QPF range, and the rest are below the approx 0.3" mean for that site. Taking those top three out gives about a 0.1" mean. The State College (PSB) has a similar distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not at all. Models have taken a solid westward step and some give us at least a 3-6" event. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREFs have a fairly reasonable spread in the LSV region (York, Lancaster) but back this way there is still some tremendous discrepancy. Using KAOO we have three members in the 1.5-2.0" QPF range, two members around the half inch QPF range, and the rest are below the approx 0.3" mean for that site. Taking those top three out gives about a 0.1" mean. The State College (PSB) has a similar distribution. Not good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitely getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Full collapse at 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have any news from the Euro ensembles? Euro ensemble mean is practically in lock step with the Euro op...strength, QPF, temps, precip extent into PA, etc. Euro and its ensembles seem to be locked into their more western cause, whether it ends up being right or not in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What is the SREF spread for MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 15z SREFs have a fairly reasonable spread in the LSV region (York, Lancaster) but back this way there is still some tremendous discrepancy. Using KAOO we have three members in the 1.5-2.0" QPF range, two members around the half inch QPF range, and the rest are below the approx 0.3" mean for that site. Taking those top three out gives about a 0.1" mean. The State College (PSB) has a similar distribution. Honestly at this point I'm not sure how much I buy the low solutions. The trend is west and west...while the 1.5" QPF is likely not happening, I can't see <.1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 PSU don't get burnt on this deal, neither side seems to be giving in so at 0z we are either going to be happy or find out the american models had it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well hopefully this continues to tick west so central Pa and to less an extent western Pa can cash in. Now we wait for the 00z models to see if the trend is our friend. One final question, is everything sampled now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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