snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Okay here we go, Euro is running. Will update as information rolls in. How are we lookin for the Mid- HV region? 8"+ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Probably shows 33-34 at the surface as usual I'm using the NAM for temps. It's higher resolution should have a better handle in picking up the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How are we lookin for the Mid- HV region? 8"+ ? 6-8" roughly. Craptastic ratios. Warm 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How are we lookin for the Mid- HV region? 8"+ ? 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 8"+ Thats what I figured.. Thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm using the NAM for temps. It's higher resolution should have a better handle in picking up the low level cold. NWS threw out the NAM stating that it's running too far north with the low and temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm using the NAM for temps. It's higher resolution should have a better handle in picking up the low level cold. The euro is running temps too warm. doesn't handle the low level cold air very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Probably shows 33-34 at the surface as usualAgreed. I can def see the north shore hanging around 30-32 for an extended time regardless of what the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On phone.. How does southwestern ct look DXR and BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thats what I figured.. Thanks bro 8+ literally rides 84, maybe a tick south... The 6-8 zone is more the lower HV e.g. Westchester on an ESE-->WNW track (if you know what I mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The euro is running temps too warm. doesn't handle the low level cold air very well. I'm still thinking back to this past December when we struggled to rise at all despite the models showing big time warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf NWS Briefing Mt. Holly. "Respect the snow, FEAR the ice." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 8+ literally rides 84, maybe a tick south... The 6-8 zone is more the lower HV e.g. Westchester on an ESE-->WNW track (if you know what I mean) Yeah I don't think many ppl realize the LVH is from Tarrytown to about Harriman. Mid HV is from Harriman/Newburgh to about Kingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still thinking back to this past December when we struggled to rise at all despite the models showing big time warming. Totally different..we dropped into the teens under heavy snow..most places are 29-31 when the snow begins tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS MOS shows 33 or so for LGA til 15z (again it shows 33/22 at the start so its missing evaporative cooling)...the NAM MOS is actually warmer at most stations, thats rare for these sort of events, so perhaps Taunton's idea is correct...if the NAM even was close to the GFS/Euro it likely would be showing temps near 29-30 for NYC til mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at all models, my forecast would be: S/E of Rt. 1 in NJ, SI, and Southern Half of LI: C-1" Snow/Sleet, minimal ice, then cold rain Between Rt. 1 in NJ - Rt. 78 (Eastern Somerset & East), NNJ East of PKWY, NYC, Northern Half of LI: C-2" Snow/Sleet, some ice, ending as cold rain Western Somerset in NJ/Rt.78 to Rt. 80 W of Parkway: 1-3" Snow/Sleet, ice, then maybe ending as cold rain N of 80/E of 287: 2-3" Snow/Sleet, ice, maybe ending as drizzle N of 80/W of 287: 3-5" Snow/Sleet, then ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temperatures are running about 10 degrees below there forecasted high in this area at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf NWS Briefing Mt. Holly. "Respect the snow, FEAR the ice." from todays model trends im prettys certain mt holly and def upton(especially nj counties) lower there snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At this time, I still don't buy the NAM's near "no snow" solution for NYC, southern Westchester/southern Fairfield counties and Long Island. My preference remains the combination of the ECMWF, GFS, and RGEM. Indeed, if one takes a look at the 15z HRRR model, one finds that guidance forecasting snow to break out across southern Pennsylvania at 15 hours in an area in which the NAM forecasts no snow. This seems to be a case where the NAM is blasting the warm air into the mid-levels of the atmosphere (700 mb-900 mb) too aggressively. If so, this would not be a rare case in which it misses a thumping of snow prior to the changeover. In short, my guess is that much of the NYC Metro Area will likely see 2"-4" of snow with a few higher amounts, similar amounts in Newark, 1"-3" on Long Island's South Shore/2"-4" on Long Island's North Shore, and 3"-6" in much of southern Westchester and Fairfield Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS MOS shows 33 or so for LGA til 15z (again it shows 33/22 at the start so its missing evaporative cooling)...the NAM MOS is actually warmer at most stations, thats rare for these sort of events, so perhaps Taunton's idea is correct...if the NAM even was close to the GFS/Euro it likely would be showing temps near 29-30 for NYC til mid morning. It's funny to see the NAM dismissed for being too warm. It's usually too cold and dynamic for these type events. Especially in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 from todays model trends im prettys certain mt holly and def upton(especially nj counties) lower there snow maps That was put out at 12:30PM, so they would have ingested everything but the Euro... That said, it is the same map as this AM (I think)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temperatures are running about 10 degrees below there forecasted high in this area at least... Temps in nj/nyc are 31-34..right on target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 16z HRRR just came out. It continues to show the snow progressing into central and northern NJ at 15 hours. By that time, Philadelphia has received 0.01" to 0.1" precipitation as snow with sleet falling there. The 12z NAM had no snow in Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Umm not sure about everyone else but where I work in Somerset, barely ANY snow has fallen off the tree limbs/power lines. I don't know if it's the complete lack of wind today or overcast skies but this will without a doubt increase the # of power outages tomorrow morning in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That was put out at 12:30PM, so they would have ingested everything but the Euro... That said, it is the same map as this AM (I think)... no they wont make any changes until this afternoons updates(between 230-4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At this time, I still don't buy the NAM's near "no snow" solution for NYC, southern Westchester/southern Fairfield counties and Long Island. My preference remains the combination of the ECMWF, GFS, and RGEM. Indeed, if one takes a look at the 15z HRRR model, one finds that guidance forecasting snow to break out across southern Pennsylvania at 15 hours in an area in which the NAM forecasts no snow. This seems to be a case where the NAM is blasting the warm air into the mid-levels of the atmosphere (700 mb-900 mb) too aggressively. If so, this would not be a rare case in which it misses a thumping of snow prior to the changeover. In short, my guess is that much of the NYC Metro Area will likely see 2"-4" of snow with a few higher amounts, similar amounts in Newark, 1"-3" on Long Island's South Shore/2"-4" on Long Island's North Shore, and 3"-6" in much of southern Westchester and Fairfield Counties. Hi don, what are your thoughts for northern Westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 no they wont make any changes until this afternoons updates(between 230-4)I knew that. Wasn't sure on the briefing packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At this time, I still don't buy the NAM's near "no snow" solution for NYC, southern Westchester/southern Fairfield counties and Long Island. My preference remains the combination of the ECMWF, GFS, and RGEM. Indeed, if one takes a look at the 15z HRRR model, one finds that guidance forecasting snow to break out across southern Pennsylvania at 15 hours in an area in which the NAM forecasts no snow. This seems to be a case where the NAM is blasting the warm air into the mid-levels of the atmosphere (700 mb-900 mb) too aggressively. If so, this would not be a rare case in which it misses a thumping of snow prior to the changeover. In short, my guess is that much of the NYC Metro Area will likely see 2"-4" of snow with a few higher amounts, similar amounts in Newark, 1"-3" on Long Island's South Shore/2"-4" on Long Island's North Shore, and 3"-6" in much of southern Westchester and Fairfield Counties. Nice write-up Don. Even up to your north here at KSWF, the 12z NAM only has 0.3 of snow and the rest as ZR except for a few snow showers at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hi don, what are your thoughts for northern Westchester? Probably 4"-8" with some local amounts up to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 16z HRRR just came out. It continues to show the snow progressing into central and northern NJ at 15 hours. By that time, Philadelphia has received 0.01" to 0.1" precipitation as snow with snow continuing to fall there. The 12z NAM had no snow in Philadelphia. sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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