IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Watch and see how fast the precip arrives tonight. That's the leading edge of the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rgem looks cold compare to Nam. It almost looks like gfs. What are you guys looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 UKMET for 12Z tomorrow morning at EWR. That's a snow profile if my eyes don't deceive me. I agree. It's still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 UKMET for 12Z tomorrow morning at EWR. That's a snow profile if my eyes don't deceive me. that's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 UKMET for 12Z tomorrow morning at EWR. That's a snow profile if my eyes don't deceive me. 750-900mb levels look slightly above freezing but barely. Could be grauple or really wet snow with that.Edit: 750-850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is the earliest snow (even a couple of inches of it) would move in? Before midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM for NYC SNow begins around 1am Changes to mix around 3-4am Changes to plain rain around or just after daybreak Mix line is west of the garden state parkway by 8am West of 287 by 10am Light rain/drizzle until early afternoon most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Spoken like a north shore guy Seriously, I saw many posts in here about LI is 33 and rain and wondered which part of the largest island off the continental US was 33. Every square mile of it? Ocean front or 30 miles north of the Ocean? The entire 120 mile length? LI at 40.6N or LI at 41.1N? The "LI is a single point in space" posts seem to come mainly from NJ posters (excluding yourself and some others) Actually yes most of LI was 33 at the warmest during the day yesterday on many models. North shore, south shore...east end was near 34 on the south shore, 33 on the north shore. I haven't seen any models today as I am working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still hate the completely non-specific usage of "north and west of 287." The phrase should be banished from use by all mets and posters. 287 runs a loop from Perth Amboy, mostly west to Somerville, then mostly NNE to Mahwah, then ESE to White Plains and then Port Chester. What most folks actually mean when they're saying that is north and west of the portion of 287 north of 80, and north of 287 in NY. None of them are usually referring to any part of 287 south of 78 or even 80. I get that it takes too many syllables to say all that, but it's still sloppy and inaccurate language. Anyway, DT came out with his first guess, which is a tad warmer than the NWS, generally speaking, with less snow and more sleet/ZR in just about every swath. He's worried about a major ice storm for DC/Balt/Philly and from about Trenton to JFK and points S/E of that line, with some ice in the swath to the NW of that line, too, but more sleet. His all-snow line is essentially the PA-NY border over to the MA-CT border to Boston. https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still hate the completely non-specific usage of "north and west of 287." The phrase should be banished from use by all mets and posters. 287 runs a loop from Perth Amboy, mostly west to Somerville, then mostly NNE to Mahwah, then ESE to White Plains and then Port Chester. What most folks actually mean when they're saying that is north and west of the portion of 287 north of 80, and north of 287 in NY. None of them are usually referring to any part of 287 south of 78 or even 80. I get that it takes too many syllables to say all that, but it's still sloppy and inaccurate language. Anyway, DT came out with his first guess, which is a tad warmer than the NWS, generally speaking, with less snow and more sleet/ZR in just about every swath. He's worried about a major ice storm for DC/Balt/Philly and from about Trenton to JFK and points S/E of that line, with some ice in the swath to the NW of that line, too, but more sleet. His all-snow line is essentially the PA-NY border over to the MA-CT border to Boston. https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246 North and West of I-287 generally refers to the stretch that runs from Mahwah to Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still hate the completely non-specific usage of "north and west of 287." The phrase should be banished from use by all mets and posters. 287 runs a loop from Perth Amboy, mostly west to Somerville, then mostly NNE to Mahwah, then ESE to White Plains and then Port Chester. What most folks actually mean when they're saying that is north and west of the portion of 287 north of 80, and north of 287 in NY. None of them are usually referring to any part of 287 south of 78 or even 80. I get that it takes too many syllables to say all that, but it's still sloppy and inaccurate language. Anyway, DT came out with his first guess, which is a tad warmer than the NWS, generally speaking, with less snow and more sleet/ZR in just about every swath. He's worried about a major ice storm for DC/Balt/Philly and from about Trenton to JFK and points S/E of that line, with some ice in the swath to the NW of that line, too, but more sleet. His all-snow line is essentially the PA-NY border over to the MA-CT border to Boston. https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246 DT 6-10 is way too far north, I never liked this forecasts. He was WAYYY off for yesterdays storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM and UKIE are south at 12z from their 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 there is a ton of snow on the trees here. it has yet to fall off, blow off, melt off, or F-off. really hope freezing rain is limited down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is warmer than the op, giving little snow, or any frozen precip for that matter in the city and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 North and West of I-287 generally refers to the stretch that runs from Mahwah to Morristown. not really only NJ, it always refers to 287 in NY which a lot of the time is a big difference with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 there is a ton of snow on the trees here. it has yet to fall off, blow off, melt off, or F-off. really hope freezing rain is limited down here. Yeah, it's beautiful out there today. White paste all over everything. That heavy wet snow sticks like glue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 there is a ton of snow on the trees here. it has yet to fall off, blow off, melt off, or F-off. really hope freezing rain is limited down here. Mines melting pretty good now. Sun and near freezing temps doing the job. But there's a lot of it to melt. I don't know if I've ever seen that much snow on the trees. Maybe 2/10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is warmer than the op, giving little snow, or any frozen precip for that matter in the city and Long Island. ensembles don't have the resolution to pick up on low level cold air, go with mesoscale models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually yes most of LI was 33 at the warmest during the day yesterday on many models. North shore, south shore...east end was near 34 on the south shore, 33 on the north shore. I haven't seen any models today as I am working This thread is about tomorrow. 32-33 was the magic number in our region wide isothermal snow bomb, but that is irrelevant for this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ensembles don't have the resolution to pick up on low level cold air, go with mesoscale models Usually the case but it pretty much enforces the idea snow will be hard to come by most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Usually the case but it pretty much enforces the idea snow will be hard to come by most places This is really more of an ice issue than anything else, and I'm skeptical I'll even see much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 not really only NJ, it always refers to 287 in NY which a lot of the time is a big difference with storms. The north and west of 287 never bothered me because I understood they're not talking about the southern end in Middlesex county but the stretch from Morris Cty through Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Usually the case but it pretty much enforces the idea snow will be hard to come by most places how bad do you think the ice will be? if we get a decent accumulation of sleet (which looks very possible) to cool the ground and on top of that zr, it could get quite ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is really more of an ice issue than anything else, and I'm skeptical I'll even see much snow. My experience is they tend to flip over to sleet fairly quickly. In the 2007 sleetfests I had very little initial snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 North and West of I-287 generally refers to the stretch that runs from Mahwah to Morristown. I know that's what many think, but if one isn't specific, it's left up to interpretation. Craig Allen usually says north and west of the 287/80 intersection, which is perfect, but I've heard some include north of the portion of 287 from Mahway to Port Chester and I'm certain nobody is even thinking about 287 from 78 down to Perth Amboy, but don't you think there are people in that area that think they're included in N/W of 287? I know there are, since I live in that area and have asked many people what they think of when they hear it and many think of Somerville or Clinton or even Plainfield (it is north and west of the southern section of 287). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 North and West of I-287 generally refers to the stretch that runs from Mahwah to Morristown. No it doesnt. You IMBY people don't realize that 287 runs through Rockland and Westchester in NY? It is a good line to use, because north of 287 has a tendency to see much more snow than areas to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know that's what many think, but if one isn't specific, it's left up to interpretation. Craig Allen usually says north and west of the 287/80 intersection, which is perfect, but I've heard some include north of the portion of 287 from Mahway to Port Chester and I'm certain nobody is even thinking about 287 from 78 down to Perth Amboy, but don't you think there are people in that area that think they're included in N/W of 287? I know there are, since I live in that area and have asked many people what they think of when they hear it and many think of Somerville or Clinton or even Plainfield (it is north and west of the southern section of 287).When people say N/W of 287 I assume places west of 287 and north of 78.This discussion should really be moved to a thread that's just for this topic. I'll bump it up as soon as I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 No it doesnt. You IMBY people don't realize that 287 runs through Rockland and Westchester in NY? It is a good line to use, because north of 287 has a tendency to see much more snow than areas to the south. What is a rockland or a westchester ? Lol it is true though.....all areas north and west of 287 generally are more frozen in these storms and can get significantly more snow many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HRRR precip types is very warm at the end of its run for 05Z....basically suggests ZR for NYC right out of the gate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Continue 287 discussion here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15998-pet-peeve-north-and-west-of-287/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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