PDIII Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No problem. The main focus with this storm will be cooling the columns above to get a pure snow signature, albeit a very wet snow. Others have noted the area of most concern will be from 750-850 mb with this storm. If that area is above freezing, then the ptype that could be seen would be in the form of sleet I believe. The dynamics of the system are another important aspect to pay attention too. The area's with the highest UVV, or vertical motion, will experience banding that will help dynamically cool the column above and dump copious amounts of snow in a short time frame despite ratios not being up to standard. Models like the GFS are not the best suited models to pick out such instances, but they can hint at them (HM was explaining this last night in one of his posts). Someone will get thumped tomorrow and my guess is it will be near the MD/PA line closer to you just based off models that are more suited for short range. I think the RGEM has been very consistent since yesterday with its depiction, so I'm riding that off into the sunset How do the dynamics set up as compared with jan 2011? That was one of my favorite storms... it poured snow for about four hours... we gonna see anything like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think back a few ago during the Feb. 2011 event the NAM was too cold also and a lot of people got burned. That storm was kinda similar to this one but the air mass behind it was stronger. The dynamics are going to make or break this storm for SE areas. Models have great upper level divergence, intense lift as shown on the 700 and 850 mb vv panels, and a ton of juice. That is what will produce the "cold enough" surface temps. If that doesnt work out wrt to alignment or timing, then its mostly heavy rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think the watch will be upgraded to a warning unless the Euro totally craps the bed. DC should get an advisory. Flood Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RGEM precip type maps don't look that great to me. Looks like quite a bit of rain before switchover. Not sure why everyone is so excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The dynamics are going to make or break this storm for SE areas. Models have great upper level divergence, intense lift as shown on the 700 and 850 mb vv panels, and a ton of juice. That is what will produce the "cold enough" surface temps. If that doesnt work out wrt to alignment or timing, then its mostly heavy rain and sleet. It is my experience that if you talk about a storm "producing" cold air... you get yelled at/ made fun of... but I think its possible.. or something like it (as described above).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The dynamics are going to make or break this storm for SE areas. Models have great upper level divergence, intense lift as shown on the 700 and 850 mb vv panels, and a ton of juice. That is what will produce the "cold enough" surface temps. If that doesnt work out wrt to alignment or timing, then its mostly heavy rain and sleet. That's what I'm thinking also. We always hear how dynamics and rates overcome factors going against it. This will be a good test. I just hope the models are overdoing the QPF. but since their all on board with a lot of precip I guess it's a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RGEM precip type maps don't look that great to me. Looks like quite a bit of rain before switchover. Not sure why everyone is so excited about it. I am not in front of a computer now but it looked like it flipped to snow at around 7 a.m. for me and you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 DCA: .7 BWI: 1.9 IAD: 1.7 HGR: 6.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DCA: .7 BWI: 1.9 IAD: 1.7 HGR: 6.8 Wow so you are going with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DCA: .7 BWI: 1.9 IAD: 1.7 HGR: 6.8 More bearish than I would have expected from you, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 More bearish than I would have expected from you, to be honest.Gotta know when to like a certain storm. This one isn't my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1-3" for my backyard with a good amount of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1-3" for my backyard with a good amount of sleet I think if the Euro holds from last night or gets colder everyone here will forget the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you're in good shape but the southern folk like Ian, Matt, and I are not. I don't trust the NAM surface temps. We've been burned by them twice this year and I think twice last if I remember correctly. yes...plus as you mentioned, even as depicted, the NAM is rain to snow to sleet, so not even sure how long DC would be snow until we flipped to heavy sleet....The GFS is a total disaster of course.. shuts off at like 11am...maybe we get an hour of snow if lucky....Euro is solid....but we of course don't really know how warm the layer above 850mb is....all 3 models have burned us a ton on marginal events....Though I am not as worried about the surface as I am about precip type with these rates....it seems most of the times we got burned the precip was too light and/or we were too warm at 925-950mb.....HM mentioned something about convection over central and southern VA...euro doesn't have it, which is maybe why it is better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think if the Euro holds from last night or gets colder everyone here will forget the GFS. Will be a distant memory real quick like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 FWIW, The 12z Canadian is the best looking model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clouds and frozen river keeping DCA temps in check.. could be a saving grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Text output from the gfs for jyo is odd..has .02 as rain then .84 with no symbol then .25 as snow....I'm guessing the .84 is a mixed bag of love and hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 FWIW, The 12z Canadian is the best looking model.... I'm 55 so I may hit 60....time to do more stuff with the boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Text output from the gfs for jyo is odd..has .02 as rain then .84 with no symbol then .25 as snow....I'm guessing the .84 is a mixed bag of love and hate Clouds keeping temps in low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clouds and frozen river keeping DCA temps in check.. could be a saving graceI am already at 50 near Navy Yard. Thought that was pretty high. Wouldn't be surprised to see it hit upper 50's. Clouds may help limit but will also limit cool down tonight before the rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm 55 so I may hit 60....time to do more stuff with the boat. have fun...I think we know where we stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How do the dynamics set up as compared with jan 2011? That was one of my favorite storms... it poured snow for about four hours... we gonna see anything like that? I highly doubt we'll see anything of that magnitude around this time. We'll see some impressive dynamics with this storm, don't get me wrong, but the magnitude of that storm was incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With all of these marginal events usually screwing us in DC, isn't it bout time it goes the other way? What if the cold front drops in a bit faster than modeled? I mean eventually statistics have to break for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm 55 so I may hit 60....time to do more stuff with the boat. It is gorgeous outside. My jeep is black and shiny once again. At least for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 5 degree spike with some clearing skies here after a chilly morning. Now 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 I highly doubt we'll see anything of that magnitude around this time. We'll see some impressive dynamics with this storm, don't get me wrong, but the magnitude of that storm was incredible Yes, not everyday you look out to hear heavy rain then hear thunder and look out and its immediately pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With all of these marginal events usually screwing us in DC, isn't it bout time it goes the other way? What if the cold front drops in a bit faster than modeled? I mean eventually statistics have to break for the better. 1/2 was a nice over-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One of the things that has me a bit more optimistic about this storm is that at the low levels, flow is from the N and advecting in cold dry air (helps with evap cooling) - note that we did not have this on 3/6. The problems are at the mid levels where flow is more out of the WSW or even turns SW for a bit as the wave amplifies. So the key as many have mentioned is to get the strong upward motion to force moist adiabatic cooling. This is evident on the hires NAM output. This should be the type of storm where you go from heavy snow to drizzle depending on whether you are in a band or not, although a lot depends on how fast the cold air filters in. I'm guessing the rain/snow line will move S in jumps based on banding. Should be fun to watch although frustrating for those who miss out or change after wasting a lot of liquid on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think this is going to produce for DC. Dynamic system, wayyy overdue, I just got a feeling. And the SREF snowfall plume mean is back up to 6" for DC on the 9z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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