SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For you but DCA.....look at the warm layer at 750 mb. Would be a sleet sounding. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1013 57 0.1 -0.6 94 0.8 -0.2 11 10 272.3 272.9 272.3 282.0 3.60 1 1000 162 -0.8 16 16 272.3 2 950 570 -0.9 -1.0 99 0.1 -1.0 50 26 276.2 276.9 274.8 286.5 3.73 3 900 1002 -1.1 -1.2 100 0.1 -1.2 49 21 280.3 281.0 277.2 291.2 3.89 4 850 1458 -0.8 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.8 84 14 285.3 286.0 280.1 297.3 4.24 5 800 1944 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 192 20 291.4 292.2 283.5 305.4 4.84 6 750 2464 1.4 1.4 100 0.0 1.4 223 45 298.1 299.1 287.0 314.7 5.63 7 700 3017 -0.9 -0.9 100 0.0 -0.9 241 55 301.5 302.4 287.7 316.9 5.11 8 650 3607 -3.1 -3.3 98 0.2 -3.1 243 61 305.5 306.4 288.6 319.7 4.63 9 600 4237 -6.9 -7.8 94 0.9 -7.3 248 59 308.1 308.7 288.5 319.2 3.54 10 550 4910 -11.7 -13.1 89 1.4 -12.2 251 68 310.2 310.6 288.2 318.3 2.53 11 500 5634 -15.2 -16.8 87 1.6 -15.7 242 76 314.5 314.9 289.1 321.2 2.05 12 450 6425 -19.5 -21.3 85 1.8 -20.0 227 81 318.8 319.1 290.0 324.0 1.55 13 400 7289 -25.8 -28.2 80 2.4 -26.3 223 87 321.4 321.6 290.2 324.7 0.94 14 350 8240 -33.7 -36.8 74 3.0 -34.1 225 87 323.3 323.4 290.3 325.0 0.47 15 300 9299 -43.5 -47.5 65 3.9 -43.7 232 96 324.0 324.0 290.2 324.7 0.18 16 250 10500 -51.6 239 107 329.3 17 200 11923 -57.4 239 101 341.8 18 150 13744 -58.0 254 99 370.2 19 100 16221 -70.6 253 82 391.3 How far up the column does the temp need to be below freezing to be all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How far up the column does the temp need to be below freezing to be all snow? Crystals usually don't begin to form until temps are below minus 8C so pretty far up in this case. It's not a snow sounding unless the warm layer temp ends up colder than forecast. If it gets below 1C of colder it probably would support snow but would be sloppy and heavily rimed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Between 10am-noon is when I switch to snow according to the NAM soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 9z sref snow plumes for iad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 12Z NAM is bringing the Sun, the Moon, the Stars, succulent applewood smoked bacon and a comped Vegas hotel room with sunken jacuzzi to north Central Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Brutal cutoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Im sure people already know but all these snow maps assume a 10:1 ratio...I think we may be looking at more like 5:1 or 8:1 at least for the metros anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Im sure people already know but all these snow maps assume a 10:1 ratio...I think we may be looking at more like 5:1 or 8:1 at least for the metros anyway... The only places that will get 5:1 are those where the snow is literally melting while it's falling and the snow is struggling to accumulate faster than it's melting. I can see that happening in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 5:1? Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Brutal cutoff... image.jpg Looks like Downtown Baltimore has a mini jackpot. Even at poor ratios that is a solid 7-8 inch snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like Downtown Baltimore has a mini jackpot. Even at poor ratios that is a solid 7-8 inch snow there. Nope, the map assumes 10:1 ratios. The heat island will screw up the ratios there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nope, the map assumes 10:1 ratios. The heat island will screw up the ratios there. Yeah, its hard for me to see Downtown Baltimore getting more than 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah, its hard for me to see Downtown Baltimore getting more than 2-3. So, what are the ratios north of I-70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe you guys can talk yourselves into a 1:2 ratio. You know, 1" of rain equals 1/2" of snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So, what are the ratios north of I-70? 50:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 big qpf on the RGEM....anyone have a wxbell map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe let the pros do the forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 50:1 LOL...10:1? 8:1? Less?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 LOL...10:1? 8:1? Less?! Plain rain if you listen to people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe you guys can talk yourselves into a 1:2 ratio. You know, 1" of rain equals 1/2" of snow..... serious lol. I'm with ya bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Plain rain if you listen to people here. Looking good out your way. I'm a little more upbeat than i was yesterday because I've pretty much accepted my fate and checked my expectations. If I can get a period of heavy snow falling, it'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mt Parkton jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe let the pros do the forecasting Honestly, what does this map proove? Ok at least 40%? Ok so do I have a 45% chance? or a 65% chance...Not the biggest fan of these honestly but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So, what are the ratios north of I-70? I would say 8:1...maybe 10:1 at the height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I would say 8:1...maybe 10:1 at the height Not bad...Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That is 6-10" for me, i feel like Martin Luther King right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mt Parkton jackpot Let me guess you plan on sweeping , might be a little rough with this type of snow. I hope your shoulder is feeling better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That is 6-10" for me, i feel like Martin Luther King right now. Right there with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Your ratios will start as 4:1, transition to 8:1, so don't expect anything close to 6-10 That is 6-10" for me, i feel like Martin Luther King right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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