WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 It really wouldn't take that much to luck into a better solution. It's more of a runner than a true cutter. Weaken the storm and a bit more confluence and things change pretty quick. As it stands now, we just can't keep it under us. Even so, as mitch said it wouldn't take much to go colder on the front end. I like the storm. Even verbatim on this run. Amen. Surely nobody needs reminding that cad usually gets stronger as we get closer. Some parts of the area do very well with this setup. Be nice to see that thing get to Knoxville and jump to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is that thing trying to hint at some sort of re-development off the coast (I can only see up to 153, so this may be a moot question)? Not that it will do a lot, but wonder if we get more dry-slotted after snow/ice, and before it cools off again. Euro did it. Redeveloped off of ACY and destroyed the interior. It's possible but we would need a further east with the primary and a quick jump (not sure this is possible unless something gets in the way up north). It's a bad ul pattern for a miller b for us so if it goes that way we need to maximize the front and hope for a dryslot. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z at day 9......insert zwts face Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The unicorn storm is totally there. And it is beautiful - until it gets too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 For Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That is one strange ass solution for d9-10. Massive precip shield outruns a lp hanging back in TX and thermals are all jacked up. We can go ahead and take it as a signal for a storm and toss the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I hate 10 day trackers. In 5 long days it will be 5 long days away and probably a northern stream system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 For Matt Meh 12 hour event. What happened to the 24 hour snow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 mark my words. It won't happen exactly as the 18z gfs shows it on 1/28/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 mark my words. It won't happen exactly as the 18z gfs shows it on 1/28/14 Safe bet. Probably won't happen exactly like today's 12Z Euro either, but we can hope for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 mark my words. It won't happen exactly as the 18z gfs shows it on 1/28/14 I give up after the crayons and pencils come out @ 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 gfs says nope to monday. It's squashed south. But is that a good thing for Wed?It's actually the opposite it seems the more amped the wave Monday gets the more it forces the baroclinic zone south for the wed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Climo argues against a 12 inch + snow in this area anytime soon. RE 09/10 vs long term frequencies. Since 1979, BWI has had at least one 12+ inch snow every 3-4 years (the exception being the 6 year period between the 1987 and 1993 storms). Its been four years now, and if feast or famine is the "new normal", then we are overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Now THATS a good setup Day 8-9...We actually have confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Doug Kammerer channel 4 DC just said we go from snow and cold to rain and potentially flooding rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Maybe frozen at start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Start up that thread. I'd be in until I'm out. Done. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Doug Kammerer channel 4 DC just said we go from snow and cold to rain and potentially flooding rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Maybe frozen at start. So what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 So what?What's jays minty mix thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 EPS members showing interest in monday and wednesday still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Climo always argues against that around here. Not always, just usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM has 2-4" next Wednesday and has a low off the coast of SC at hour 240 throwing snow up to central VA. Based on 500 maps, it doesn't look like it'd be coming up the coast but at least it has a low off the coast this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z gefs has a big signal for a coastal d9-11. Not all are good solutions but who cares. A lot of support at long leads for "something for somebody" along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 A day 10 storm you say? It wouldn't be a model run without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? The NYC forum has a good thread on model timing: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-model-info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The NYC forum has a good thread on model timing: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-model-info/ Thank you! This is really helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's actually the opposite it seems the more amped the wave Monday gets the more it forces the baroclinic zone south for the wed storm. That's what I was thinking as well. I think the recent model runs that looked good for next Wed. all had the first system on Mon. stronger and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another "epic pattern" with the payoff always ten days away. I'm sure Icez is stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Another "epic pattern" with the payoff always ten days away. I'm sure Icez is stoked. He is. As usual. I'm stoked for 50 on Saturday and making my car black again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just wondering why DK is speculating on next week. Not very prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's what I was thinking as well. I think the recent model runs that looked good for next Wed. all had the first system on Mon. stronger and further north.They have. I think it's a combo of a stronger Monday system suppressing the flow behind it just enough to bring the boundary south some but also prevent a more amped system wed. Each wave will impact the following so runs will bounce around a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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