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Snow/non-Clipper/High wind/Windex Event Disco Jan. 25th


Damage In Tolland

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you ftw!?

 

  • Snow showers likely, mainly between 11am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -3. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Saturday NightA chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Widespread 1-2 for now.. 3-4 not out of question with squalls..which show up very nicely as modeled now

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you ftw!?

  • Snow showers likely, mainly between 11am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -3. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night

    A chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

No

P&C FTL

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NAM and GFS both show 50 knots at top of mixed layer on Saturday. Pretty unusual to have gusty southwesterly winds and snow in the air. 

The Euro had today what looked like convective cellular spots, the kind you see offshore with big cold frontal passages blowing out over the ocean. OES would not surprise me in coastal CT before winds veer totally SW

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Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes.

 

A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does.

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Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes.

 

A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does.

Nice, Berkshire East should do well

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GFS favors snow over rain for us on Saturday evening.  Although has rain for us on Monday.  I don't know I remain skeptical whether or not we actually turn to rain, we might have enough of a lifting mechanism to cancel out the warm air surface layer.  Things can still change within the guidance, but right now I would favor at least snow showers over the region.

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Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes.

 

A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does.

 

You're area looks almost better than here as you get a lake feed late in the game and as that front comes across the lakes, it'll entrain some extra moisture which should wring out nicely on the west side of the Berks.  Vort max going right overhead with upslope flow can really enhance the event with some almost convective heavy upslope snow showers.  I think 3-6" is a good starting point for the west side of the southern Greens and Berkshires. 

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Saturday looks like a classic FROPA snow squall day with post frontal upslope snows continuing for a while afterwards for the Berkshires, Taconics and Greens. An advisory level event is a decent possibility for the western slopes, especially if we can cash in on additional lake effect streamers Saturday night after the main event passes.

 

A potent vortmax with instability, some moisture, and a FROPA is a good recipe for some surprises in the orographically favored areas in WNE. The meso models have been hinting at a 3-6" snowfall for this area on up into SW VT, so this may be our once a winter event where we can get in on it like Mt. Mansfield does.

 

I'll be up in Monterey for the weekend... can't wait!

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Tim Kelley seems quite optimistic up here, based on what he wrote for Jay Peak... I'm not exactly sure I'd agree with this at this stage, haha. 

 

"Waves of low pressure along arctic fronts can pull off big surprises. But we will be conservative. Snow is here most of the day Saturday, ending before sunrise Sunday, a very low density 8 inches seems reasonable.

 

The weather dynamic generating our Saturday daytime snow is called warm air advection. Yes, we will warm all the way to 15 above zero! But the 'advection' part is wind. Gusts past 40 mph from the southwest are here Saturday afternoon. The snow Saturday night is from cold air advection. The temperature is heading south of zero again Sunday, but the 'advection' part should not be quite as strong, it 'should be' less windy on Sunday.

 

The best powder skiing is likely later Saturday, and early Sunday. The more comfortable, groomer type skiing, should be early Saturday and later Sunday. I say later Sunday because the wind should let up a bit during the afternoon.

The system racing in Sunday Night and Monday will generate another 8"+ of even lower density powder, along with a new low reading on the thermometer by Tuesday morning."

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Tim Kelley seems quite optimistic up here, based on what he wrote for Jay Peak... I'm not exactly sure I'd agree with this at this stage, haha.

"Waves of low pressure along arctic fronts can pull off big surprises. But we will be conservative. Snow is here most of the day Saturday, ending before sunrise Sunday, a very low density 8 inches seems reasonable.

The weather dynamic generating our Saturday daytime snow is called warm air advection. Yes, we will warm all the way to 15 above zero! But the 'advection' part is wind. Gusts past 40 mph from the southwest are here Saturday afternoon. The snow Saturday night is from cold air advection. The temperature is heading south of zero again Sunday, but the 'advection' part should not be quite as strong, it 'should be' less windy on Sunday.

The best powder skiing is likely later Saturday, and early Sunday. The more comfortable, groomer type skiing, should be early Saturday and later Sunday. I say later Sunday because the wind should let up a bit during the afternoon.

The system racing in Sunday Night and Monday will generate another 8"+ of even lower density powder, along with a new low reading on the thermometer by Tuesday morning."

AWT.

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Nope, January has been punted. Futility record in sight. Philly on VT's tail for season win. Gahhhh!!!!

 

Oh January punted itself on the 6th.  And Ginxy was trying to figure out if normal January snowfall was 40", 60" or 75"....unfortunately it won't be anywhere close to any of those values, lol. 

 

21" on the snowboard so far at 3,000ft.  Lowest since 2000 was 39" (actually achieved last year and we thought that was a dry month).  Maybe we can weasel up to 30" on the month, to save the punt from being returned for a TD...and stop them at our own 20 yard line.  Give the defense a chance to stop 'em in Feb and March, or at least keep Philly to a field goal.

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