LovingGulfLows Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That is after the storm has passed on thur am. . However, it does show temps in the teens over eastern nc for most of this storm. That is impressive enough. I'm not going to allow myself to get too excited. I know moto showed a favorable trend in 500mb heights but I'm still worried this will be crushed or it shears out and we stay dry while the coast/south ga has all the fun. Especially considering that ensembles generally agree on this likely being further southeast than northwest. Just about everywhere in the country has seen snow or ice except around here...even most of north ga. I think I would be rather sick if this hammers areas to the south. ugh. I think one of the more interesting aspects of this run is the fact of freezing rain (or sleet/snow depending on exact soundings or changing to snow before ending) that could occur over extreme south georgia and extreme north florida. Snow on the carolina coast is pretty rare but not incredibly so but freezing rain down into north florida I would guess is rare indeed. I hate to be jaded but I agree on your sentiments. It would crush me inside to see areas that very rarely get snow get pounded while we get the bare minimum. Over 3 years now since Atlanta has accumulating snow. Even if this trends just 100 miles West or Northwest, Atlanta would be around 3-5 inches. I'd take that and run as fast as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Something about this setup screams southern slider to me. As long as it's not a curve ball! But if it is a slider, I worry about ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m Wow, the snowfall forecasts for Gulf Coast including Tallahassee, Jax & Gainesville more legit -- EPS members 50/50 on > 1'' accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lets keep the discussion on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m Even more amazing, half of EPS ensembles go for major 6-12'' snowfall along Atlantic coast from Georgia into Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m Wow, the snowfall forecasts for Gulf Coast including Tallahassee, Jax & Gainesville more legit -- EPS members 50/50 on > 1'' accums 50 out of 50 for those locations. Wow. can't wait to see the individual breakdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Obviously, we're going to want to see if the Euro holds at 00z, but to see the Euro and its ensembles in good agreement at this time frame has me pumped for now. If the Euro is on to something, I wouldn't be shocked at all if this trends further NW, either. It's not like we haven't seen that before. I do worry a little about the Euro overamplifying this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If the flow keeps trending back west it seems likely to be further west. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 And the ECMWF show -7f in parts of Eastern NC DURING the tail end of the the Snow Storm ! Is the projected snowpack the only reason their is a 20+ degree difference between the Western Piedmont and Eastern Piedmont of North Carolina? That seems like a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 50 out of 50 for those locations. Wow. can't wait to see the individual breakdowns. Tallahassee mean is 1.9" and there are 2 members with around 8" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Brad P put out this picture on Facebook. His ECMWF map looks a lot different than the WxBell version. Anyway, the more maps, the merrier. So take a look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Out 120 on the 18z and the 500 map looking better...We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Here comes the 18z GFS looking close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I just counted 14 members that are showing 6" or greater at Lancaster. A few less than that at CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is the projected snowpack the only reason their is a 20+ degree difference between the Western Piedmont and Eastern Piedmont of North Carolina? That seems like a huge difference. Largely due to snow pack and likely clear skies night after the storm. Although during the storm, cold air will be pulled down with the snow. Like others said I have witnessed 10 to 15 degree temperature snow storms many times in Central and Eastern NC, and teens even on the coast during snow storms. Can happen...we need to get back to the way winters used to be ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Might as well quote this as well: Again even that one didn't look great but sure I'll concede that it was as I stated one of the two times I saw a "big dog" storm for the SE. Go ahead and show me all the other examples since they seem to be so plentiful. You must be right then, the GFS does cave to the Euro more times than not, let's end this argument it's pointless. Let's see how the mighty Euro does with this storm and we can come back to this thread in 5 days and see how it worked out. I hope I am wrong and your right and the GFS does cave to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m Even more amazing, half of EPS ensembles go for major 6-12'' snowfall along Atlantic coast from Georgia into Carolinas I wonder if this means I95 east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Here comes the 18z GFS looking close to the Euro. The sfc map wasn't there yet but the 500 looked good. It is further west for sure. EDIT: Still light snow covering a lot of NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Exciting run of the euro. below zero readings after a mega snowstorm is what wx weenie dreams are made of. i do caution everyone, these solutions are bouncing all over the place with this s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 snowing hard on the coast at hour 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m Looked like 35/54 ecmwf ens members had some accum snow at RDU on the 28/29th. Looked like 23 had multiple inches. 17 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The sfc map wasn't there yet but the 500 looked good. It is further west for sure. EDIT: Still light snow covering a lot of NC/SC. look for the trends to keep moving north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 9s 44/54 had some accumulating snow for KILM. 32 multiple inches. 26 6+ inches. 21 9+ inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 18z is a carolina coast special...as well as far eastern nc. big storm there..surface to 850s support all snow with around 4 to 6 inches or so along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/426477485870444544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m Looked like 35/54 ecmwf ens members had some accum snow at RDU on the 28/29th. Looked like 23 had multiple inches. 17 6+ inches. Crazy for ILM…26 members had 6"+, nuts. Book it right, what everyone is saying. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx7m 44/54 had some accumulating snow for KILM. 32 multiple inches. 26 6+ inches. 21 9+ inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 9s 44/54 had some accumulating snow for KILM. 32 multiple inches. 26 6+ inches. 21 9+ inches! This is what is worrying me for the western carolinas/north ga quite frankly. I don't like seeing essentially all of the ensembles on the euro and the gfs showing the bulk of the precip so far south. I mean it's one thing for the operational runs to do it but I fear the cold air is so strong it very well could keep this thing really supressed. I mean the gfs is showing -20c 850mb temps at hour 120 almost to the nc mountains, with the gfs/euro showing 850mb temps of -14 to -16c in general over the western carolinas/north ga That is some serious cold and it's hard to picture much precip being thrown back into an airmass this cold over the interior southeast. Plus if the water temps are colder than normal, the baroclonic zone will obviously be further south too. For us interior folks, I just don't know. All these "it will trend west" posts might be premature or wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/426477485870444544 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 34m Wow, the snowfall forecasts for Gulf Coast including Tallahassee, Jax & Gainesville more legit -- EPS members 50/50 on > 1'' accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is what is worrying me for the western carolinas/north ga quite frankly. I don't like seeing essentially all of the ensembles on the euro and the gfs showing the bulk of the precip so far south. I mean it's one thing for the operational runs to do it but I fear the cold air is so strong it very well could keep this thing really supressed. I mean the gfs is showing -20c 850mb temps at hour 120 almost to the nc mountains, with the gfs/euro showing 850mb temps of -14 to -16c in general over the western carolinas/north ga That is some serious cold and it's hard to picture much precip being thrown back into an airmass this cold over the interior southeast. Plus if the water temps are colder than normal, the baroclonic zone will obviously be further south too. For us interior folks, I just don't know. All these "it will trend west" posts might be premature or wishful thinking. I think that's true to a degree, but 5 days out if you told me the gfs was supressed 500 miles and the euro was a hit, i would take it. (; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You don't want to be in the bullseye quite yet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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