Lookout Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I really wish the NAM didn't run out 84 hours. lol..I don't care that it does..i just wish it was more accurate. Always have to add a disclaimer/fwiw when talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 lol..I don't care that it does..i just wish it was more accurate. Always have to add a disclaimer/fwiw when talking about it. Well the DGEX i just took a look at has no real SE snow storm. That's actually a great sign! Also, 12z GGEM had a Low of sorts but late/not here. 12z UkMET looked pretty okay for SC especially.. maybe GA too. not sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z GFS further west with the polar s/w. The Baja s/w is quite a bit stronger. Good trends thru 78 hs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Burger, The 850 0C line doesn't come back to near SAV until just before 12Z on 1/29 or at ~144 hours. By that time, a whopping ~0.55" of qpf has already fallen. Hardly any of that would be snow since it normally doesn't snow when 850's are warmer than 0C as you know. They are as high as +4 C and the 0C 850 line is ~50 miles inland from Savannah during much of the precip. I checked with a second source of model data and it confirmed this. That leaves only ~0.05" of qpf to fall once 850's have fallen to 0C or colder! So, this looks to me like ~0.55" of a ZR/IP combo followed by ~1/2 " of snow. There's no way SAV is anywhere near 3.9" as modeled! Now if it has the 850 line too far inland vs. what actually would occur, that would be different. Regardless, the model shouldn't think it is snowing if the 850's are in the +1 to +4 range. Any opinions? I was just eyeballing that 850 line on SV maps and granted my ideas of where I think SAV is and where it actually is are probably two different things. Looking at the SFC map it looks like it would be ZR until 144 when thickness allows for some sort of IP/SN. Heck even an inch in SAV of snow would have to be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12Z Euro ens. has a whopping 12 members giving Waycross 9+" of snow and the mean is at 5" LMAO!!!! The op. Euro is at 3" but it can only be dropping less than an inch of snow there based on the 0C 850 line. However, they, too are at or below 32 at the surface. So, Waycross, like SAV and CHS, is getting mainly ZR and IP (say ~0.50" of qpf), not snow. So, that would be quite a mess there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 0z GFS further west with the polar s/w. The Baja s/w is quite a bit stronger. Good trends thru 78 hs. Beat me to it sir was just about to comment on the polar s/w. That may be awesome down the line here on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 00z a good bit different at 5h than 18z. Further west, also has some energy trekking through bajah @96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A couple of days ago someone posted a link where we could input our airport codes Im interested in KFLO can anyone post the link again...thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I was just eyeballing that 850 line on SV maps and granted my ideas of where I think SAV is and where it actually is are probably two different things. Looking at the SFC map it looks like it would be ZR until 144 when thickness allows for some sort of IP/SN. Heck even an inch in SAV of snow would have to be exciting. I'm guessing that, too. Of course, 1" at SAV, especially with it this cold, would be big news and a rarity since it hasn't snowed that much there since 1989! Nevertheless, should the 12Z Euro somehow come close to actually verifying, the bigger story could easily be the ZR if most of that 0.55" is ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A couple of days ago someone posted a link where we could input our airport codes Im interested in KFLO can anyone post the link again...thanks guys! Did it print out text data and do you remember if it was wxcaster with radio buttons to select the model or meteostar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I may be totally off base here but it doesn't look like this run of the GFS is gonna cut it. That energy does not look to be digging enough out west. Out to 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Idk how I feel about the setup at 102. I feel like the northern energy is not digging as much as i'd like it to but that southern stream energy is significantly stronger. I meant hr 111* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I may be totally off base here but it doesn't look like this run of the GFS is gonna cut it. That energy does not look to be digging enough out west. Out to 117.I don't want it to show a great storm at 120. That's a recipe for getting nothing in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Nope, not even as good at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A couple of days ago someone posted a link where we could input our airport codes Im interested in KFLO can anyone post the link again...thanks guys! You can find what you are looking for here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-weather-references-and-newbie-information/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I will say this @120 there is another parcel of energy on the back side coming down through Canada. It could be this is just gonna be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This run looks like crap to me at 120 comparing the frame at 126 on the 18z. Not nearly digging as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Swing and a miss. Not sticking around to see where it goes later on. Night folks, here's hoping the Euro still has our storm in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Swing and a miss. Not sticking around to see where it goes later on. Night folks, here's hoping the Euro still has our storm in the morning! Phew that was rough surface was awful at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not only was the storm much weaker on the 00z GFS, but the air mass was warmer too. Yucky run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I would wait on the euro before getting to worried.. although euro is the one that has ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The king will have the beaches digging out here in couple hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GGEM, GFS, DGEX vs Euro, EPS, UKMET(to an extent). There's a reason the WPC/HPC chose the Euro Ens this morning nad show a forecast of a low on a stalled front off the coast. That was before the 12z op Euro came out too. I'm with Widre.. I don't want to see a big Euro shown storm on the GFS this far out. And guys, the OP euro might be a lot different in a good or bad way. The EPS is where it's at.. and has been before today really. So don't cliff dive if it shows less or none. If the EPS look bad, then there's a major concern for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well that was a suck run of the GFS for the inland folks. The trough has to flex back toward Oklahoma and Texas like the Euro to get precip cranking back inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't want it to show a great storm at 120. That's a recipe for getting nothing in a week. 2nd that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The gfs might not be what the inland ppl want to see but what is it saying for the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Cmc is a swing and miss too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The gfs might not be what the inland ppl want to see but what is it saying for the coastal areas Nothing, except for maybe a few flurries on the outer banks. Everything is weak and too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Cmc is a swing and miss too. I don't see any sites that even have it out yet. http://www.meteociel.fr/ usually has it, but it's only out to hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The gfs might not be what the inland ppl want to see but what is it saying for the coastal areas If I'm in Wilmington, the GFS is pretty much what I want to see right now. Cold and close call with the precip just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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