fig Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take one of these!! Give us coastal folks some lovin! On a serious note, it's awesome following all of this and reading all of your insight. Us weenies appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just glanced over EPS members. Haha, looks a Hell of a lot better than they did at 00z the night before last. No worries. KSAV and coastal areas get crushed with MAINLY snow this go around if other maps/temps are the be believed. Michelle and KCAE guys; still a EPS mean of 3"+ here. Here is a funny sight for KCAE compared to OP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'll take a March 1980. Another "snowing in the teens" storm. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 No doubt it was in the teens all most statewide. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?event_id=97&location_county=&StartYear=1969&page=5&StartMonth=01&StartDay=1&EndYear=2013&EndMonth=05&EndDay=7&Submit=Submit Another "snowing in the teens" storm. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS stronger with the northern stream shortwave and farther east with the southern stream wave than 6z at 96/102 respectively. Ok, who's doing pbp?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Look at that precip blossoming in S TX at 102 hrs on the 12z GFS. That southern wave is continuing to trend stronger. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Look at that precip blossoming in S TX at 102 hrs on the 12z GFS. That southern wave is continuing to trend stronger. Very interesting. Yep, that's been the trend when comparing the 0z/6z and now the 12z GFS, unfortunately it still weakens it fairly well after 102 before it can phase, so this should miss wide right again, possibly scraping the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 If that southern s/w can maintain itself and allow the backside polar s/w to capture it, and not allow it be crushed and strung out by the retreating PV we'd be in a good place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just to my untrained eye based on SFC maps alone this is going to be extremely close to what we all want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just to my untrained eye based on SFC maps alone this is going to be extremely close to what we all want. This looks like it's going to be a good run...gulf moisture is ramping up big time at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 hr 120, surface low just east of Jacksonville, FL, missed the phase, if it phases it would have been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 GFS doesn't look good for Tues/Wed...maybe another wave dropping in later can save it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This looks like it's going to be a good run...gulf moisture is ramping up big time at 105 Like Wow said that energy in the gulf needs to get swept up. Even so though that back side energy is starting to dig in Texas I would think downstream that says something good for parts of the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Its crushing the southern wave. Northern stream strikes again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 hr123 is new, forms a cutoff over the lakes, maybe the low get's pulled back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just to my untrained eye based on SFC maps alone this is going to be extremely close to what we all want. Yes it is. Quite close.. if the southern s/w continues to trend stronger.. we'd be set. I know the GFS has a tendency to kill off southern waves too quickly anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12z GFS takes the storm up the coast, just a little too far off the coast for most; however, this is a very good run and a big step in the right direction. The southern stream energy has trended stronger; however, it does miss the phase with the northern stream. This is what I expected to happen with this run of the GFS, so that is good. I still expect a northwest trend over the next few runs, because I believe the storm phase together. The GFS does not handle phasing very good in general, and it may take a few more days before the model realizes what is going on. All in all, this was exactly what I expected to see on this run. I would like to see the EURO come in a little farther west, but we will see about that. It will also be important to see how the GFS compares to the GFS ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 hr123 is new, forms a cutoff over the lakes, maybe the low get's pulled back in Doesn't happen. By 132 it's pulling out. Gotta see what happens with that energy on the backside diving down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yes it is. Quite close.. if the southern s/w continues to trend stronger.. we'd be set. I know the GFS has a tendency to kill off southern waves too quickly anyway. The 12z GFS takes the storm up the coast, just a little too far off the coast for most; however, this is a very good run and a big step in the right direction. The southern stream energy has trended stronger; however, it does miss the phase with the northern stream. This is what I expected to happen with this run of the GFS, so that is good. I still expect a northwest trend over the next few runs, because I believe the storm phase together. The GFS does not handle phasing very good in general, and it may take a few more days before the model realizes what is going on. All in all, this was exactly what I expected to see on this run. I would like to see the EURO come in a little farther west, but we will see about that. It will also be important to see how the GFS compares to the GFS ensemble. Yeas something tells me there are going to be some ensemble member a lot of us really like in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Good run though for Myrtle Beach up through coastal areas of NC (for Wed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Miles better than 0z. Cold Rain gets some flurries out of this one. At least we get to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 KMYR looks like snow while KCHS looks to be ZR for a bit. Interesting run and closer to previous coastal special runs it's had. Until the EPS really relaxes on interior totals; I'm still all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12z GFS takes the storm up the coast, just a little too far off the coast for most; however, this is a very good run and a big step in the right direction. The southern stream energy has trended stronger; however, it does miss the phase with the northern stream. This is what I expected to happen with this run of the GFS, so that is good. I still expect a northwest trend over the next few runs, because I believe the storm phase together. The GFS does not handle phasing very good in general, and it may take a few more days before the model realizes what is going on. All in all, this was exactly what I expected to see on this run. I would like to see the EURO come in a little farther west, but we will see about that. It will also be important to see how the GFS compares to the GFS ensemble. Good summary, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 A step in the right direction. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 7 mins 12z GFS is trying. Trending west, still not west enough for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Miles better than 0z. Cold Rain gets some flurries out of this one. At least we get to keep watching. I thought it was close to being a beast, that southern piece of energy was much stronger through 96 but then weakens to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 If it's so northern stream dominated, why isn't the clipper/northern stream bringing any snow to the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 great run for the coast, although i feel we have seen this story before. models suppress the system until 2-3 days out when it brings it back a tad. still feel like the florence area east to myrtle will be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just throwing this out there... new updated zones for Pensacola, Fl. AFD attached: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL949 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014.SHORT TERM (THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON)...UPDATED FCST ZONES ANDGRIDS TO REMOVE HARD FREEZE WARNING...PLUS MORE IMPORTANTLY EXTENDINGMIXTURE OF LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW FATHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERNFLORIDA PANHAHDLE. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...BUT NOSIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STILL...A DUSTING ON GRASSYAREAS AND ON CARS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THEFCST AREA. HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVIER BANDOF PCPN EXTENDING FROM STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF MISSISSIPPI INTOMOBILE COUNTY OF ALABAMA THROUGH AROUND NOON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLYTAPPERING OFF. RADAR IS SUPPORTING THIS TREND...AND WE WILL HAVEMONITOR THIS AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.OTHERWISE...FCST TEMPS ARE IN LINE FOR THE MOMENT REMAINING IN THELOWER 30S THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPSFOR TODAY DOWNWARD. WILL MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL. 12/DS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hello all! I've been lurking for awhile and have recently just joined. Been spending most of my time over in the TN Valley forum due to my location. However, I'm just hoping that someone in the Southeast gets a good snow during this cold spell that we've been in. With all that being said, referring to a couple of the previous posts, if the storm does phase with the northern stream, will that mean a significant shift to the NW? That would allow more inland areas in SC, GA, and NC to get in the heavier precip correct? Thanks in advance for the help in understanding. I've loved weather, especially winter weather, since I was a kid. I'm a model newbie and just trying to gain understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hello all! I've been lurking for awhile and have recently just joined. Been spending most of my time over in the TN Valley forum due to my location. However, I'm just hoping that someone in the Southeast gets a good snow during this cold spell that we've been in. With all that being said, referring to a couple of the previous posts, if the storm does phase with the northern stream, will that mean a significant shift to the NW? That would allow more inland areas in SC, GA, and NC to get in the heavier precip correct? Thanks in advance for the help in understanding. I've loved weather, especially winter weather, since I was a kid. I'm a model newbie and just trying to gain understanding. It could. The phase would help to make the storm stronger and could help to pull the storm farther inland. The upper air maps are definitely supportive to this idea, and I have seen cases where this happens and when it doesn't happen. So if the phase does happen, that would more than likely pull the surface low closer to the coast and would provide heavier snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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