packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6z GEFS mean even wetter than 0z. It's a shame HPC isn't buying the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How far west in NC does the mean bring the previous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS just took a huge left shift in the precip field. Looks like it's picking up that energy out west. Big change from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Maybe I haven't rubbed all the sleep out of my eyes yet, but it sounds like things turned much better last night. Are they all trending west now? The GFS that was leading the way saying no snow is now going west, too? The ensembles for the GFS now have good snow? And the NAM and Euro look good, too? Am I still dreaming or is the currect summary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here's what the HPC is thinking will happen.... Interesting, I guess they think the NW trend isn't done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 06 GFS now gives this area (KJNX) .47" qpf per MeteoStar. 00z had us with nothing. 850 temps are a little warmer on the 06z on 1/29... (-4, -5 compared to -8, -9) Looks good for the Northern OBX, say from Oregon Inlet Northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ASIGNIFICANT ICE STORM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES ON TUE...WITH ABAND OF MIXED PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS POSSIBLYTRANSITIONS TO A BAND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF A WAVY FRONTALBNDRY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE COASTALCAROLINAS OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IF A DEFINED WAVE OF LOWPRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION ISABLE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INLAND BACK INTO THE COLD AIR. Update from the HPC this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's quite a blanket they throw out --- coastal Carolinas OR Southern Apps. Interesting wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here's what the HPC is thinking will happen.... Interesting, I guess they think the NW trend isn't done yet. That is centered right on the Atlanta area. I'm becoming a bit more excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6z GFS really lays down heavy precip amounts along the coast and coastal plains of NC and SC. Central southern Ga look great as well. Even Atlanta getting something(>.1). Has the .25 right at my house. As with everybody, hoping for that shift west even more. EDIT: This was a really big shift west from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That 4" prob map CAD just posted is a head scratcher as the QPF maps which were issued at roughly the same time overnight are dry for he upstate into WNC. Tells me they are at least giving some weight to the SREF probs which are still bullish for this area. Count 3 6z GFS mems that went nuts in SC just NW of CHS, 18+". 6z op is a coveted >24hr event at PGV, with around 1" total liquid. Starts around midnight Wednesday and does not finish until Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 06z GFS output for KCAE (COBB): Quite a bit colder vs 06z NAM with the pure snow thing. 140129/0300Z 69 05008KT 29.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 140129/0600Z 72 03009KT 24.9F SNOW 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140129/0900Z 75 01010KT 24.3F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145 12:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 100| 0| 0 140129/1200Z 78 03009KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 13:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 140129/1500Z 81 04009KT 25.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is the GFS pulling more moisture, but arriving a tad later. Checking the soundings on the 0Z run for the Sandhills and I'm getting quite a bit of ZR/sleet early on. My understanding was we were cold enough for all snow inland. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6z GEFS mean even wetter than 0z. It's a shame HPC isn't buying the GFS. They didn't buy it for the Christmas storm either until snow was falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I said it before and I'll say it again. I will bet almost anything the GFS keeps that southern vort more in tact each run as we move along which is going to help push more moisture into WNC and upstate SC. Obviously it would help GA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Definitely still feel coastal plains/sections are in great shape from Ga to Carolinas. Fl panhandle Gulf Coast looks good too. I wouldnt be shocked to see this edge west a bit, but I dont think this turns into a huge system for the interior, we shall see. I plan to write a discussion here this afternoon after church and the 12z data comes in. Yes Dec 89/Feb 73 mix is probably what I am thinking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 snow_percentile.png Can you provide a little more info about this map? How is it generated and what does the 95th percentile mean? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Definitely still feel coastal plains/sections are in great shape from Ga to Carolinas. Fl panhandle Gulf Coast looks good too. I wouldnt be shocked to see this edge west a bit, but I dont think this turns into a huge system for the interior, we shall see. I plan to write a discussion here this afternoon after church and the 12z data comes in. Yes Dec 89/Feb 73 mix is probably what I am thinking right now. 6z GFS is the most westward run of that model yet. Definitely good trends overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting that the SREF's are showing two different regions with high probabilities of greater than 1 inch of snowfall: the coastline hugger region and the inland region. This would suggest to me that the SREF members fall into one of those two camps, with not much in between... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like IMBY, I get around a tenth. The two tenth line starts around Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SREF has come eastward from it's position a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Definitely still feel coastal plains/sections are in great shape from Ga to Carolinas. Fl panhandle Gulf Coast looks good too. I wouldnt be shocked to see this edge west a bit, but I dont think this turns into a huge system for the interior, we shall see. I plan to write a discussion here this afternoon after church and the 12z data comes in. Yes Dec 89/Feb 73 mix is probably what I am thinking right now. 89 was a great storm. Very hurtful for me; I had come home (to Durham) from college for Christmas break and watched the clouds stay to east dropping snow on folks east of Raleigh. Back then just had weather radio, news papers, and TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like IMBY, I get around a tenth. The two tenth line starts around Lancaster. Did you look at the GEFS members? 5 had really good hits for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Always nice lift located in the NW upstate. Love seeing the high prob showing up in that region. Interesting that the SREF's are showing two different regions with high probabilities of greater than 1 inch of snowfall: the coastline hugger region and the inland region. This would suggest to me that the SREF members fall into one of those two camps, with not much in between... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 From our model site http://models.americanwx.com with by the way 20% off STORM20 through the end of the month. The 3z SREF 24 hour probabilities of >1 inch, 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches through 1pm Wednesday. 9z should be out in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can you provide a little more info about this map? How is it generated and what does the 95th percentile mean? Thanks! It's a WPC map that that uses the SREF output, and in this case, the likely hood that a particular event will occur in those areas. All WPC data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can't help but get a little excited after seeing those probabilities here in Jacksonville, thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Did you look at the GEFS members? 5 had really good hits for us. The way I've calculated it, we need a 30 mile shift for a quarter inch and an 80 mile shift for half an inch. That's within reach. I'll go check out the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well this is probably about as good of a time as any to start a new thread. Someone with some good mojo start one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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