AmericanWxFreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think one red flag indication that the gfs is wrong is that we are below to much below freezing for 11 days straight. I think a 1977 algorithm got installed before this run. When is the last time we went over a week straight below freezing? DC.. stopped once I found one Jan 17-25 2005 was close but missed one (1/20) Jan 23-28 2004 (6 days, 11 of 13 in larger stretch) Jan 6-12 1996 (4 but missed 7 with a 34 high on 10th) Dec 16-25 1989 (10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Canadian hits us hard with a Miller-B next Tuesday when GFS has the most potent clipper. That looks like a fun solution... low 980s right by OC and deepens to 961 in E ME The 120 panel looks a bit awkward though... 999 in S NY and a 998 in NW SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Canadian hits us hard with a Miller-B next Tuesday when GFS has the most potent clipper. Yeah, that's a potent system. Too bad it's the GGEM What if the euro shows this? Server breakdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 DC.. stopped once I found one Jan 17-25 2005 was close but missed one (1/20) Jan 23-28 2004 (6 days, 11 of 13 in larger stretch) Jan 6-12 1996 (4 but missed 7 with a 34 high on 10th) Dec 16-25 1989 (10) Good stats. Thank you. No surprise that it's in January in the last 20 years. The 80's were special. We don't do that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 What if the euro shows this? Server breakdown? Breakdown of epidemic prognostications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Its been so long since we tracked a sub 100 hour super wet system moving into a cold air mass, that I'm not even sure what I'll do if it happens. Drink whiskey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 DC.. stopped once I found one Jan 17-25 2005 was close but missed one (1/20) Jan 23-28 2004 (6 days, 11 of 13 in larger stretch) Jan 6-12 1996 (4 but missed 7 with a 34 high on 10th) Dec 16-25 1989 (10) The 1st 3 had events with immediate stickage on main streets downtown...not too common..amazing what a cold stretch can do Here is 1/19/05..during the middle of the day at 18th and M at 19 degrees...everyone measured 2"...I measured 2" exactly downtown...no slant stick...DCA had 0.8"...lol...Borders is now a Nordstrom Rack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Doesn't look like teh 12z UKIE has what the 12z GGEM is imagining at 132... I see what looks like a SLP over NW SC/SW NC at 120 and scoots quickly ENE out to sea as a weak LP at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 1st 3 had events with immediate stickage on main streets downtown...not too common..amazing what a cold stretch can do Here is 1/19/05..during the middle of the day at 18th and M at 19 degrees...everyone measured 2"...I measured 2" exactly downtown...no slant stick...DCA had 0.8"...lol... Nice. The list isn't necessarily exhaustive. I could have included the 1994 stretch which was less than a week as well etc. I may have missed something too was a quick run through the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm going to go out on a far far limb and say this doesn't verify at any time during the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GEFS doesn't have anything like the GGEM, but it does have a couple wound up solutions for the 4th vort system (the one the Euro has keyed on I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 1st 3 had events with immediate stickage on main streets downtown...not too common..amazing what a cold stretch can do Here is 1/19/05..during the middle of the day at 18th and M at 19 degrees...everyone measured 2"...I measured 2" exactly downtown...no slant stick...DCA had 0.8"...lol...Borders is now a Nordstrom Rack... That pic might as well be one on those Beschloss tweets of historical "back in the day" pics that he does for DC so often, particularly with the Borders in the shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm going to go out on a far far limb and say this doesn't verify at any time during the rest of the month weregonnadie.JPG Its the Revenge of the Perler Vertex! But yeah, doubt we would ever see that epic cold around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Nice. The list isn't necessarily exhaustive. I could have included the 1994 stretch which was less than a week as well etc. I may have missed something too was a quick run through the numbers. yeah...that was our 1st event of the winter...we had 7 more after that...nice 6 week period....Of course it was a weak Nino which helped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 yeah...that was our 1st event of the winter...we had 7 more after that...nice 6 week period....Of course it was a weak Nino which helped If you want street stickage, January definitely beats December and February for events in the past 20 years or so.... 1/94, 1/95, 1/96, 1/97, 1/99, 1/00, 1/03, 1/04, 1/05, 1/07, 1/08 (managed to do it above freezing during the day), 1/09, 1/10, 1/11, 1/12, 1/13.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Plenty of wet solutions d9-15 on the gefs. Not all snow and not all hit but it's definitely the most active run I've seen in a while. Lots of stuff in the deep south, gulf coast, southern plains, and even hitting the socal coast in various members. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro event 1 - Start 11pm Friday - end 3-4 am - 0.07"? liquid...all snow..may be stickage issues in city at 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 hard to take anything 3+ days out too seriously. But, looks good none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro might be an inch for most overnight friday night. Cold 850's and surface below for most 95 and west. 12:1 kinda stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro might be an inch for most overnight friday night. Cold 850's and surface below for most 95 and west. 12:1 kinda stuff? right torque and it can be done! LOL! That was an awesome post on our latest "event" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro event 1 - Start 11pm Friday - end 3-4 am - 0.07"? liquid...all snow..may be stickage issues in city at 1st 12 Euro Event 2 - Start time, 3-4am Sunday morning - maybe 0.04" - 2-3 hour event - all snow and cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The model runs so far today have been great. It appears likely that something decent is going to happen before the end of the month. At least the cold will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Canadian hits us hard with a Miller-B next Tuesday when GFS has the most potent clipper. Is the Euro showing anything similar to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro has nada for overnight mon-tues. GFS was suspect so nothing unexpected. ETA: just realized the euro had this last night. oops. poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Man, euro is very cold next week but cut clipperfest in half. Nothing after the sunday morning dusting through thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12 Euro Event 2 - Start time, 3-4am Sunday morning - maybe 0.04" - 2-3 hour event - all snow and cold.. Great start times.. middle of the night snowfall blows, then again I enjoy seeing it fall more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Heh, d9-10 is going to blow the server up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro making a strong case that the 24-26th threat is a real and present danger. Edit. Ninja'ed by BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro event 1 - Start 11pm Friday - end 3-4 am - 0.07"? liquid...all snow..may be stickage issues in city at 1st 12 Euro Event 2 - Start time, 3-4am Sunday morning - maybe 0.04" - 2-3 hour event - all snow and cold.. 12 Euro Event 3 - Start time - 2pm Friday 24th - end time 2-3am. - around 4" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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