clueless Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 remember when Mondays euro showed .44 at JYO for this saturday Did you really have to remind us? Does the Euro ever have a bad run? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Southern stream looks to be coming alive by mid next week on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What happened to the weekend clipper? did it just washout over the mountains It's there but there's another low to the north of it that kinda sucks the life out as it crossed the mountains. It's fast flow with closely spaced features. It's likely that future model runs will show better solutions before taking them away again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It's there but there's another low to the north of it that kinda sucks the life out as it crossed the mountains. It's fast flow with closely spaced features. It's likely that future model runs will show better solutions before taking them away again. I think it's likely that f'ing low will never, ever get out of our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 euro pretty close to a storm at day 6.it does give us rain/snow....I've dubbed it the Heartbreaker Looks a tad warm because a low track just to the northwest of us before reforming. It's the closest to a real system and is 6 days away so it's certainly worth watching though I think you name for it probably will be well deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think it's likely that f'ing low will never, ever get out of our way. Well, next friday now looks interesting.. another ns vort but with no low to the north. trying to get organized for a central va special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Well, next friday now looks interesting.. another ns vort but with no low to the north. trying to get organized for a central va special How many times have we had a low show up suddenly to screw everything up? Like a gazillion. It is frustrating because we are in prime climo. It hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Looks a tad warm because a low track just to the northwest of us before reforming. It's the closest to a real system and is 6 days away so it's certainly worth watching though I think you name for it probably will be well deserved. What do we root for here? Simply a further south track of the northern low with more dig do it can phase better? Looks messy and tricky. Easy to be bearish for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm just rooting for the storm to actually exist. Lately the EURO has been over amplifying everything in this range. GFS does have the storm so it is encouraging, even though it is OTS & develops late...The GFS has really earned some love lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Well, next friday now looks interesting.. another ns vort but with no low to the north. trying to get organized for a central va special That's our bst chance until somehow a low gets north of us. You'd think one of these clippers would finally clip us. I don't see any signs of a southern stream through the day 10 forecast but do see a clippe getting to our south. Unfortunately, lots of time for the weather gods to mess things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What do we root for here? Simply a further south track of the northern low with more dig do it can phase better? Looks messy and tricky. Easy to be bearish for now. Enough digging and separation of the vort from the flow to take the low south of us. Then we'd have a chance. Without a good block or southern stream, all our systems are likely to be messy and tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 euro pretty close to a storm at day 6.it does give us rain/snow....I've dubbed it the Heartbreaker i wont be heartbroken about a storm that gives me .12:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You can't make this stuff up. Euro op snow through 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 yea...euro is a total fail for us. 0 to 240 but the 21/22 does look somewhat interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You can't make this stuff up. Euro op snow through 240 eurouch.JPG the Euro is going to be wrong with that storm the flow is much more progressive; it's done this several times since 12/1 so "yes", I do agree with Highzenberg and believe the GFS will be closer come verification time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Not that it means much but 850's on the euro are totally fine for next week's heartbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Not that it means much but 850's on the euro are totally fine for next week's heartbreaker. I saw that on Wunderground map....what's it surface temps or just lack of qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I saw that on Wunderground map....what's it surface temps or just lack of qpf? Both. 35* contour is west of 95 and only .1 or so falls. It's a total skipover. The main reason I'm bearish (other than the gfs being progressive and a no nevermind) is the northern low is just too far north. Yea, the euro keeps showing a stream out of the gulf but we suffer bad in the temps dept and redevelopment is too late. Still a lot of time but we need the ns vort and low to dig a good bit further south before we can get excited for anything. Otherwise we won't have the temps even if some overunning out of the gulf makes it overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 euro ensembles not bullish at all for the heart breaker. Nobody on along the ec will like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 euro ensembles not bullish at all for the heart breaker. Nobody on along the ec will like this run. Anything positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 JMA shows nothing until 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Anything positive? The NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The NAO nao.sprd2.gif Will hug that for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 omg ian, that is some funny S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Anything positive? Actually there is. Ensembles a good bit more bullish with the d9-10 threat. Moisture out of the gulf up the ec. Spits a tenth or two over the 24 hour period but the look is much different than the op. It's THE ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 The NAO that was funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Actually there is. Ensembles a good bit more bullish with the d9-10 threat. Moisture out of the gulf up the ec. Spits a tenth or two over the 24 hour period but the look is much different than the op. It's THE ONE thats the HM threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You can't make this stuff up. Euro op snow through 240 eurouch.JPG OOPS! Posted the larger area mp in the pattern discussion. YA that stings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 omg ian, that is some funny S I get most of my inspiration from Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 that was funny maybe we'll get an archambault storm when it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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