ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 "When"? Sounds like you're speaking as if the Euro's going to hell tonight. It may, but...calling it already? where did I say hell? I am saying that its a POSSIBILITY that the Euro resembles the GFS/NAM/UKMET/GGEM later tonight....but then we toss all of them and search for the one that shows the blizzard..KMA or JMA or whatever....its a PROBABILITY that this will be a 3-6" snow event....people need to come to grips with that....not every storm with a trough east/ridge west can be a KU. Before 2000 there were exactly 7 KU's in THIRTY years to effect the NYC area....that is SEVEN IN THIRTY YEARS. We have had like 7 since Dec of 2010.... Jan 78 Feb 78 Feb 83 Jan 87 Mar 93 Feb 95 Jan 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm just overjoyed that whatever falls will actually have a real winter feel to it rather than the usual gloppy, melty anything-but-arctic, umbrella-requiring junk that we experience 90% of the time here in Manhattan. However, let me add, with regard to the GFS and the GFS only, it's hard to imagine a better run at T-66hr. I've been watching east coast set-ups on the models for 25 years, and this looks exactly like the evolution I've seen before the vast majority of the memorable events that involved truly cold air. I'll not throw out any analogs as quite a few of the posters here are pretty unforgiving regarding weenie-ism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Apparently it's a real thing. It's used in mets write ups and discos about storms. Not sure it's annoying and overused in your forum, which i learn a tremendous amount, the red taggers are saying the GFS is the MOST logical solution....in this thread its a toss out by most non-red taggers Tip uses it a lot in the SNE forum - not much else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GGEM improved aloft, still sloppy at the surface.. John, this is a clear theme with all the models not named ECMWF....something has gotta give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS at 165 hours looks mighty interesting id say gradient/overrunning pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Guys lets at least wait to see what the Ensembles show before we give or take credit to/from the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tonight's guidance tells me little more than that there is still a lot of uncertainty. At least some accumulating snow is likely, the question concerns how much. Southern New England continues to have the best chance at receiving a significant snowfall, but a moderate snowfall is not out of the question for the NYC area. The NAM trended better. The GFS trended worse (mixed if one considers somewhat better 500 mb presentation). FWIW, Boston received the same qpf as it did on the 12z run and almost the same amount as it received on the 18z one. This suggests that the location and timing of the phase will be key and that's something that probably requires more time for the modeling to work out. In theory, the higher resolution guidance should do a little better, particularly the ECMWF. But that isn't always the case. Don , I think thats more important in NYC than focusing on what the GFS typically likes to do 3 days out on the EC . If we didnt hav a surface map to look at , and we just saw the 500 MB map , you would think a heavy snowstorm was coming . The ridge thru the Rockies looks like its in a good spot to turn this , theres no Blocking to shunt this so the speeding of the surface feature due E just looks like an eror to me . The GFS does this on " almost " every snowstorm 3 days out . the Euro ensembles are much more consolidated at the surface and im just inclined to buy it in this set up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 in your forum, which i learn a tremendous amount, the red taggers are saying the GFS is the MOST logical solution....in this thread its a toss out by most non-red taggers Tip uses it a lot in the SNE forum - not much else I agree that it probably is. I just thought you meant that the feedback issues were something that didn't exist. In terms of the storm. I don't buy a really amped up major snowstorm to be honest. The pattern is incredibly progressive, and literally a number of things timed perfectly will be needed to make it work. I don't think at this point anyone is getting skunked. Your right about the KU comment though. We've had quite a few recently, and people automatically expect a set up like this to produce big snows, which isn't the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 in your forum, which i learn a tremendous amount, the red taggers are saying the GFS is the MOST logical solution....in this thread its a toss out by most non-red taggers Tip uses it a lot in the SNE forum - not much else To be fair most non red taggers in their forum are tossing it too. IMO its another plausable solution on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 where did I say hell? I am saying that its a POSSIBILITY that the Euro resembles the GFS/NAM/UKMET/GGEM later tonight....but then we toss all of them and search for the one that shows the blizzard..KMA or JMA or whatever....its a PROBABILITY that this will be a 3-6" snow event....people need to come to grips with that....not every storm with a trough east/ridge west can be a KU. Before 2000 there were exactly 7 KU's in THIRTY years to effect the NYC area....that is SEVEN IN THIRTY YEARS. We have had like 7 since Dec of 2010.... Jan 78 Feb 78 Feb 83 Jan 87 Mar 93 Feb 95 Jan 96 I remember all of these puppies growing up. It was such a rare event to get them...they have become too commonplace now where I see weenies expect them. They are something to cherish as unique and need to stay as rare events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z UKMET doesn't look too hot Might see the ECMWF shift soon since they tend to follow each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't like how it looks awesome at 60-72 hrs or so yet the low is so far off shore. I really hope the euro shows the same solution from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z UKMET doesn't look too hot Might see the ECMWF shift soon since they tend to follow each other. UK was the first to show the Miller A solution so that's a bit worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All in all, I still think this is a 2-4" snow event for NYC....although over the past day or two, I'm starting to think that it could be more like 3-6 than 2-4, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm ready to see the Euro clean things up. When it comes to big storms, it's definitely Euro all the way so it's either a nice hit or a sideswipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All in all, I still think this is a 2-4" snow event for NYC....although over the past day or two, I'm starting to think that it could be more like 3-6 than 2-4, but we'll see Agree. This is in line with the 00Z GFS MOS for an initial 2-4" with more to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I remember all of these puppies growing up. It was such a rare event to get them...they have become too commonplace now where I see weenies expect them. They are something to cherish as unique and need to stay as rare events There have been other times taht KU's were commonplace. March 1956, February 1958, March 2, 1960, December 11 (or so), 1960, January 20, 1961, February 4, 1961, January 1964, February 1967 (leaving out the snow to rain event of January 29, 1966 that qualifed as a KU), February 9, 1969. These seem to run in streaks. The ones listed here (link) were during a relative snow drought that ran from 1979 through 1993 (with the listed exceptions of the Megalopolis storm of February 1983 and the January 1987 even. The period from just after the post-Christmas 1969 storm to January 1978 was also horribly unsnowy, as was 1949-March 1956. Weather changes. What a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GGEM improved aloft, still sloppy at the surface..Its a sloppy model. Like the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nogaps is ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GFS ensemble mean was 0.50"+ for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Posting outputs from consistently terrible guidance is like calling out the starting lineups for our local winter sports teams....no one cares....the end result is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GFS ensemble mean was 0.50"+ for all ...and the low was where compared to the OP? I really don't feel like looking at weatherbell tonight at all so im counting on all of you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tonight's guidance tells me little more than that there is still a lot of uncertainty. At least some accumulating snow is likely, the question concerns how much. Southern New England continues to have the best chance at receiving a significant snowfall, but a moderate snowfall is not out of the question for the NYC area. The NAM trended better. The GFS trended worse (mixed if one considers somewhat better 500 mb presentation). FWIW, Boston received the same qpf as it did on the 12z run and almost the same amount as it received on the 18z one. This suggests that the location and timing of the phase will be key and that's something that probably requires more time for the modeling to work out. In theory, the higher resolution guidance should do a little better, particularly the ECMWF. But that isn't always the case. I always figured Boston would be the epicenter and the question would be how good it can be for how far southwest of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What I like from tonights suite is the block appearing on all models over davis strait: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Navgem is not ots..precip over the area at hr 72, 78 and a little hr 84..East of previous run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All in all, I still think this is a 2-4" snow event for NYC....although over the past day or two, I'm starting to think that it could be more like 3-6 than 2-4, but we'll see I would say several inches with the potential for more. I think it would take a complete disaster for us to get nothing-but relying on inverted trough features is always foolhardy. Maybe this one (if it happens) can finally work out. Not having the overrunning completely overshoot us would help also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What I like from tonights suite is the block appearing on all models over davis strait: That kicker could be a spoiler though, and the ridge isn't that sharp. Out to sea with the developing low is still a real possibility. I think we'll be nailbiting until the ball drops tomorrow (after, since the Euro won't be out until 1AM). Hopefully, the Euro bit a real nugget and holds tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone have the gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm wondering if we see a Boxing Day type trend with the models by tomorrow or Wednesday because the setup really doesn't look bad. I'm surprised the models are so far east with this. The block in the Davis Strait looks solid, there are hints at a negatively tilted trough, and the pattern is quite amplified with nice ridging out west, but we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone have the gefs? solid for moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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