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00z Model Discussion | January 2-3 Winter storm


user13

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Lets keep these model threads test going...

 

SREF:  8:20

NAM: 9:00

RGEM: 10:20

GFS: 10:30

UKMET:  10:40

GGEM:  11:00

GEFS (En):   12:00

ECMWF:  12:45

ECM (EN):  3:00

Points for Tonight:

 

SREF's and especially the NAM are still outside of there capable range for reference for those teetering on the edge of sanity. most important thing to look for tonight is can the northern stream dig towards the gulf and get that LP from the gulf negatively tilted in time. we are still in the stages where trends rule and not the actual outcome. statistically speaking the EURO is pretty damn good in this range with southern stream system

 

Notes: -GFS 12z model run today went to a pure miller A system that was very close to delivering a blizzard like scenario

           - EURO had a hybrid A/B system but still amped up and showing a big storm not far off from producing something big

           -18Z GFS had a similar outcome if you dug through the CFI to the 12z GFS

           -This storm coming out of the gulf showed one thing, it will be enormous in size as seen on the GFS/EURO, and like all Gulf lows will NOT lack a ton of moistre

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this is out of control with these threads.  how can we have any continuity within our discussion with 3-4 different threads for the SAME threat?  mods need to correct the situation, IMO.

 

We used to do each model in its own thread (6z GFS, 12z Euro, etc.). This way is better than having everything in one thread.

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I agree. PLEASE stick with one thread

The point was to have a separate thread to discuss and do play by plays for 18z, 0z, 12z runs etc. without alot of commenting on unrelated things concerning the storm. General discussion should go in the storm thread and only the particularly model discussion, in this case 0z tonight, should be in here.

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Lets keep these model threads test going...

Points for Tonight:

 

SREF's and especially the NAM are still outside of there capable range for reference for those teetering on the edge of sanity. most important thing to look for tonight is can the northern stream dig towards the gulf and get that LP from the gulf negatively tilted in time. we are still in the stages where trends rule and not the actual outcome. statistically speaking the EURO is pretty damn good in this range with southern stream system

 

Notes: -GFS 12z model run today went to a pure miller A system that was very close to delivering a blizzard like scenario

           - EURO had a hybrid A/B system but still amped up and showing a big storm not far off from producing something big

           -18Z GFS had a similar outcome if you dug through the CFI to the 12z GFS

           -This storm coming out of the gulf showed one thing, it will be enormous in size as seen on the GFS/EURO, and like all Gulf lows will NOT lack a ton of moistre

 

Great post, along with the model times. It is definitely important to realize that there have been convective feedback issues with the GFS and not jump off a cliff with either outcome it shows (OTS or blizzard). Hopefully the Euro will continue to trend in the right direction this evening.

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