Jefflaw77 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems rather early. Perhaps we get overrunning snows then a lull and then the big kahuna later that day/night.. Kinda like 1/11/11? or was it the 27th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yes 1AM Thu morning (wed night) 0600 utcI guess kids will have 1-2 days more of vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems rather early. Perhaps we get overrunning snows then a lull and then the big kahuna later that day/night.. Kinda like 1/11/11? or was it the 27th? The 27th-28th was that type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 At 60 hours on the WSI maps the northern stream and associated jet dynamics are 50-100 miles separated from the main vort. This is the wild card...if and when it catches up, it's almost as if you're lighting a power keg. Whenever this happens is where all deterministic guidance shows rapid deepening of the surface low and expansion of the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 looks like some convective feedback at 66 , regardless it took a step towards the Euro and dives in earlier . Not sure how it finishes I have to run , inside 48 hours is where this will be key . GN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 looks like some convective feedback at 66 , regardless it took a step towards the Euro and dives in earlier . Not sure how it finishes I have to run , inside 48 hours is where this will be key . GN It's not convective feedback, it's a slightly sloppy and disjointed phase. Look at the N stream at 66 hours..that's when it really phases in. That's when the surface low will consolidate and strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6z or 1 am Thursday morning. Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 00Z NAM looks like the 18Z GFS, but the SLP is further west @HR 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is actually a VERY nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Much more digging @63 on h5, the storm is massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the WAA snows continued to be focused north of NYC from the HV to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Several inches of snow well n of nyc into New England before it comes together at all for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM has a Moderate Snowstorm for NE NJ/NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run of the NAM will paint more QPF than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run of the NAM will paint more QPF than the pervious run. Basically 4-8" of snow, but with higher ratios maybe higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Definitely not a huge storm by any means, but still huge changes here....now into the euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Definitely not a huge storm by any means, but still huge changes here....now into the euro and gfs Yea you cant take the NAM at face value here, The bottom line is it took further steps towards the Euro's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Basically 4-8" of snow, but with higher ratios maybe higher. We will all take it. Good karma for verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Actually I believe the NAM dry slots The i95 corridor lol nah...nice run ! 4-6" for many....8-10" up near boston....but there is a very good chance that these amounts could be doubled. The GFS of 18z looks similar to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Definitely not a huge storm by any means, but still huge changes here....now into the euro and gfs Obviously not a serious statement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM qpf thru 84 hours. The brunt of the storm is thu pm into fri. Well out of the NAM range but good trends all day on a much more.amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets talk snow and single digit temps, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets talk snow and single digit temps, shall we? Damn!!! Snow ratios??? This keeps getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I guess kids will have 1-2 days more of vacation. No they lose some of spring break. That's the way it works now. my district will not even allot snow days next year. All comes out of existing holidays. If this storm comes to fruition, President Day is gone. OT I know but some of you may have kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Damn!!! Snow ratios??? This keeps getting better. Those almost due N winds will be ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lets talk snow and single digit temps, shall we? Nice little jackpot up here in the HV... With temps in the teens & single digits those snow ratios should be quite impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seems like the jackpot areas will probably be those that get the additional 3-6" of snow before it gets it's act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Even the SREF and ARW/NMM members that don't have the big system show a moderate snowfall from overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM qpf thru 84 hours. The brunt of the storm is thu pm into fri. Well out of the NAM range but good trends all day on a much more.amplified system. At 12:1 ratios (not unreasonable, given the cold temps in the snow nucleation and growth region), this would translate to 3-6" in most of NJ and 6-9" in NE NJ (i.e., the NWS-NYC counties) and NYC metro, LI and the Hudson Valley. Huge step towards the other models vs. the nearly complete whiff at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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